[단독]Group immunity 11 countries within the year… Issue 1 is completed next month in Israel

On the 11th, as the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the Corona 19 pandemic (a pandemic), the world is heading for the’exit’ of collective immunity through vaccination.

According to Bloomberg News’ Vaccine Tracker, about 10 out of 111 countries that are currently vaccinated are expected to reach the target for population immunity within this year. This is the result of an estimate based on the average number of vaccinations per day by country and the number of populations. However, the’immune gap’ in which the timing of reaching group immunity varies by country is expected to be inevitable.

According to this, as of the 7th, it is expected that 75% of the population will be vaccinated twice in Israel next month and in September and October in the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively. Including this, 11 countries have reached population immunity with a 75% vaccination rate within the year. Chile, Hungary, Serbia, United Arab Emirates and Malta. In most countries, vaccinations started quickly and the number of vaccinations per day is higher than that of the population.

On the other hand, there are still many countries where it is difficult to determine the exit. According to Bloomberg, it is estimated that it takes more than 10 years for population immunity to reach population immunity in more than 10 countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Africa, if the current vaccination rate continues. Most countries have started vaccinations late and are relatively slow.

However, when the supply of vaccines increases and the vaccination begins in earnest, the time of reaching population immunity will be earlier. In fact, Bloomberg predicted that it would take 7 years for the world to reach the level of collective immunity at the beginning of last month, but recently predicted it to be four years, and three years have been pulled in a month.

Nevertheless, the gap between leading and developing countries for a considerable period is expected to be inevitable. In the case of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a global economic analysis agency, most countries in the United States and Europe are expected to complete the vaccination within this year, and Korea, Japan, and Russia are expected to complete the vaccination in the middle of next year. The timing of entering through the’entrance’ of the tunnel called Pandemic was similar, but the timing of escape differs from country to country.

Countries where group immunity is expected within this year are already starting to recover their daily lives. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last month, “The goal is to complete the vaccination of all adults by the end of March, and to completely lift the blockade by April.” In Israel, which entered the vaccination on December 20 last year, 42.3% of the population completed two vaccinations.

In the United States, 297,76160 people (9% of the population) who completed two doses of the Corona 19 vaccine as of the 6th were counted. This is the result of more than 2 million vaccinations per day on average. As the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved the Janssen vaccine for urgent use, the vaccination rate is expected to increase further. On the 2nd, U.S. President Joe Biden also moved the timing of vaccination to all adults in the U.S. by two months from July to May. As vaccinations accelerated and the number of confirmed cases per day drastically declined, state governments in the United States are stepping up to ease quarantine regulations, such as opening some commercial facilities.

The UK is also planning to completely lift the blockade in June as the number of confirmed cases has recently increased, with an average of 340,000 doses or more per day.

In countries with fast vaccination rates, the introduction and promotion of’vaccine passports’, which gives vaccinations freedom of travel and daily life, is also being actively carried out.

Israel has signed agreements with Greece and Cyprus to exempt vaccination passport holders from self-isolation. Currently, 17 countries have introduced or are promoting vaccine passports. The US and UK are also discussing introduction. The European Union (EU), which has 27 member states, is also pushing for the introduction of vaccine passports, and such countries are expected to increase further.

Bloomberg estimates that South Korea recently received an average of 39699 doses of vaccination per day, and at this rate, it will take 5 years and 3 months for 75% of the population to complete the 2 vaccinations. According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 29,6380 people completed the first vaccination as of the 6th. The inoculation rate relative to the population is about 0.6%. In the case of Korea, there is a high possibility that the speed of vaccination will be accelerated, so it is predicted that the timing of group immunization will be earlier.

However, regarding the government’s announcement of the target time for group immunity in November this year, Professor Kim Woo-joo, a professor of infectious medicine at Korea University’s Guro Hospital, said, “It is not easy to form a group immunity in November, as stated by the government as the competition for securing vaccines in each country is fierce and it is uncertain whether or not the quantity will arrive in time It will be.”

The’immune gap’ can act as an’immune barrier’ in latecoming countries. Exchanges and trade will resume, centering on countries that quickly gained collective immunity, which could lead to a gap in the pace of economic recovery.

In a report on the 7th, the Bank of Korea predicted that developed countries will generally achieve collective immunity by the end of this year, while emerging countries will generally achieve collective immunity after mid-next year, with wide variations from country to country. Accordingly, advanced economies are expected to gain momentum in their economic recovery after the second quarter of this year, but emerging economies will be able to expect recovery after the end of the year.

If the immunity gap between countries continues to widen, it will inevitably have a negative impact on the global economy as well as escape from the pandemic. This is because developed countries have no choice but to face the’boomerang’ in a situation where the supply chain of goods and services around the world is closely connected.

In January, the National Economic Research Institute (NBER) reported that even if high-income countries achieve collective immunity, if developing countries and others do not start vaccination in earnest, this year’s global gross domestic product (GDP) loss of about $9.2 trillion (about 1386 trillion 8,000). It is expected to reach KRW 100 million).

Reporters Lim Sun-young, Jung Young-kyo, and Seok Kyung-min [email protected]