[단독] Samsung Electronics reduces DRAM investment in the new year

Input 2020.12.28 10:07 | Revision 2020.12.28 10:19

Expected to expand 30K per month, less than this year when the DRAM industry was bad
Impact of natural reduction (10K) due to image sensor line conversion on 40K monthly investment
A’DRAM supply control card’ that can generate stable profits ahead of the announcement of shareholder return policy
SK Hynix, which should pay $7 billion to Intel at the end of next year, has limited investment capacity
DRAM showing signs of rebound to 1-2 weeks in stock… “The market will be good by 2022”

Samsung Electronics (005930)It is known that next year’s DRAM facility investment plan is set to expand 40K per month (40,000 wafers). Although the overall semiconductor investment volume is increasing from this year, most of them are investing in NAND flash and foundry (consignment production of semiconductors), and DRAM is investing only about this year. As Samsung Electronics plans to convert some DRAM lines into image sensor lines sooner or later, the actual total investment in DRAM is expected to decrease from this year to the level of 30K (30,000 wafers) expansion per month.

The industry sees that the amount of investment is too small as the DRAM industry is expected to rebound in earnest next year.

According to industry sources on the 28th, it is known that Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor division (DS) has recently confirmed the facility investment plan for 2021 at a global strategic meeting.

Samsung Electronics is planning to convert some of the 13 lines of DRAM into image sensor lines in March next year. Accordingly, the industry estimates that the amount of DRAM facility investment will decrease by about 10K per month (in terms of conversion to 3G 10-nano-class DRAM). Taking into account this natural reduction, Samsung Electronics’ investment in DRAM facilities next year will be limited to 30K per month.

The reason Samsung Electronics is putting out the surface is that the DRAM market is uncertain. Looking at the price trend of DRAM this year, when Corona 19 spread and prolonged, DRAM prices, which rose by 17% in the first half alone (based on DDR4 8Gb for PC), showed a roller coaster price drop of 14.4% again until the end of November in the second half.

However, the observation that the DRAM industry will hit a bottom in the fourth quarter and rise in earnest from the new year is gaining strength throughout the industry. In addition, there is an analysis that companies have started to purchase semiconductors earlier due to a power outage accident at the Taiwan plant, which is the core production base of Micron in the US, which is the third largest DRAM industry after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Actually Samsung Electronics, SK hynix (000660)It is known that the stock of DRAM is less than two weeks and less than one week, respectively. That is, the demand for DRAM is starting to rise.

Accordingly, the industry interprets that before the announcement of a new shareholder return policy, Samsung Electronics is trying to regulate supply to generate stable profits from the most profitable DRAM. Samsung Electronics announced its shareholder return policy for three years from 2018 to 2020 in 2017, and is about to announce a new shareholder return policy. In order to stably distribute dividends to investors, the company has no choice but to choose a method of decreasing DRAM investment size → increasing price due to supply-demand imbalance → increasing profits.

The industry sees that SK Hynix, which recently acquired Intel’s NAND flash division, also has no capacity to invest in DRAM. SK Hynix must pay 7 billion dollars out of the $9 billion acquisition to Intel by the end of next year. An industry official said, “If Samsung is passive in DRAM investment, SK Hynix will not have to be overkill. If the scale of DRAM facility investment decreases, the price of DRAM will be reduced by the second half of 2021 and 2022. It will have a synergistic effect.”