[단독] Only 30% of lottery winners… The 3rd new city’Residing in Seoul’ is in ambush

The government’s strategy to diversify demand for Seoul in the third new city that the government is developing to expand housing supply has been ambushed. Access is good, but the threshold is expected to be high. It is expected that it will be difficult to achieve the same effect of stabilizing housing prices in Seoul as in the past 1st new city.

As a result of the contract for the winners of the’Lotto’ apartment sold in public housing near Seoul, about 30% of the contractors were residents of Seoul. This is the result of an analysis of the contract status of 1945 households in four complexes sold in Wirye New Town (Hanam) last year, Gamil District, Hanam City, Gwacheon City, and Gwacheon Knowledge Information Town last year. The three locations are adjacent to or near Seoul, which is similar to the location of the third new city.

Out of the four complex contractors, Seoul residents accounted for 31.5%, with 612 people. 30% of the regions were in Hanam and Gwacheon. Excluding the region, Gyeonggi-do was 36.6% and Incheon was 2.2%. These proportions were almost the same in the four jars. Among the winners, the percentage of contractors is the same as the percentage of winners as there are few contract abandons or ineligible winnings.

The proportion of contractors in Seoul is much lower compared to the subscription passbook, which is the measure of demand for housing. As of December last year, 890,000 people ranked first in the subscription bankbook in the metropolitan area. Of these, 400,000 people in Seoul, 46%. The percentage of subscription bankbooks with a subscription period of 15 years or more is 54.4% in Seoul, 40% in Gyeonggi and 5.6% in Incheon. If the subscription passbook subscription period is long, the probability of winning is high because the subscription price point (private housing) is high or the subscription savings (public sale) is high.

The reason that the proportion of contractors in Seoul is lower than that of subscription bankbooks is the effect of the local preferential supply system. 30% is allocated to the region first, 20% is for other Gyeonggi Province, and 50% is for Seoul and Incheon.

“In theory, you can take up to 50% from Seoul,” said Ham Young-jin, head of Jikbang’s Big Data Lab.

Experts predict that the 3rd new town sales will show a similar pattern.

Lee Wol-moo, CEO of Midme Networks, said, “The Gwacheon Knowledge Information Town is a’lotto’ that is very cheap compared to the market price, so many people with a high probability of winning in Seoul have subscribed. The percentage of winning in Seoul could fall further,” he said.

With ‘30% of winning Seoul’, it is expected that the 3rd new city will have a limit to the price of a house in Seoul. In the early 1990s, most of the pre-sale for the first new towns, including Bundang, went to residents of Seoul. In 1993, the Korea Institute of Land Development (currently the Korea Institute of Land) surveyed the former residences of 1,400 residents of the new city, and Seoul accounted for 61.8%. In 1991-93, when the new city was fully occupied, the apartment prices in Seoul fell as the demand for housing drained into a new city.

Up to 80% of winning in the 1st New City Seoul

When the first new city was sold, the percentage of priority supply in the region was 20%. Seoul competed for 80%. When the Pangyo New City was sold in 2006, 30% of the area was sold and 70% of the other metropolitan areas including Seoul. 30% of the region, 20% of other Gyeonggi-do, and 50% of Seoul and Incheon were created in 2010.

Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert at Kookmin Bank, said, “To absorb Seoul’s demand as a new city, we need to loosen the barrier a little more.”

Even after the 3rd new town moves in, the threshold for entry from Seoul is high. After moving in, it is not possible to trade due to resale restrictions for 5 to 7 years, and the winner must reside in person for 2 to 5 years.

Heo Yun-gyeong, a research fellow at the Korea Institute of Construction Industry, said, “Seoul housing supplies should be found in Seoul, which is the desired region, not elsewhere.” .

50% of the winners of the 30s in Wirye public sales

Meanwhile, the percentage of winning lottery apartments in their 30s has risen since last October’s increased supply and reduced subscription qualifications. The percentage of contractors in the 30s of private housing in Gwacheon Knowledge and Information Town rose 5 percentage points from 18% in July last year to 23% in November last year. Those in their 40s and 50s went down from 74% to 66%. In the public sales of Wirye New Town (Hanam) sold in December of last year, the proportion of contractors in their 30s was the most at 50%.

At the end of September last year, for the first time in life, the volume of special supplies increased from 20% to 25% in public pre-sale, and 15% was newly built in private housing in public residential areas. The income standard for special supply of newlyweds has also been eased. The first special supply for homeless people who have never owned a house and the special supply for newlyweds that can be applied for within 7 years of marriage are applied by many in their 30s, who are difficult to win in the general supply. Reporter Ahn Jang-won [email protected]