[뉴스분석] 830,000 households nationwide, supplying 3 units per minute to Seoul

“This is a more innovative proposal than the previous countermeasures. As the speed of the project, which is the key to the reconstruction project, is expected to increase, the interest of the residents is likely to increase.” (Seongjin Kim, Sinbanpo 19th Reconstruction Association, Jamwon-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul)

“Since it is easier to secure land, we can alleviate one of the big concerns of the housing development business.” (Kim Seung-bae, CEO of Pides Development)

The general market evaluation is that the government’s’measures to expand housing supply in metropolitan areas’ announced on the 4th will produce more supply effects than previous measures. However, since it is mainly a public-led new supply method that has not been experienced so far, there are many mountains to overcome before it is actually supplied to the market.

The government decided to significantly increase the supply of housing in metropolitan cities including Seoul through’speed battle’. This is because, contrary to the government’s initial expectations, the shortage of housing supply became a starting point.

Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Byun Chang-heum said, “The demand for housing has increased sharply due to low interest rates, abundant liquidity, continuous increase in national income, and the recent unusual household division.”

Namki Hong “320,000 households in Seoul, supply shock level”

Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and Minister of Strategy and Finance said, “The supply of this measure is 830,000 households, which is about twice the annual national housing supply, and the 320,000 households to be supplied to Seoul are at the level of’supply shock’, which is 10% of the housing stock in Seoul. I said. 320,000 households are three times the size of Bunyou city, which has about 100,000 households. In order to speed up the supply of housing, the supply method was planned by the public initiative. Redevelopment and reconstruction to develop old residential areas, as well as in the station area, semi-industrial areas, and low-rise residential areas, the public directly builds houses. Until now, business entities were private sectors such as unions.

The government said, “If it is implemented by the public, it is possible to quickly proceed with projects that have been delayed due to the problem of privatization of private development profits, and to alleviate side effects such as the crowding of tenants.” To this end, the threshold for public implementation is lowered. If more than two-thirds of the residents agree, it can be implemented by the public. The requirement to consent to the establishment of an existing restocking redevelopment association is more than three-quarters. In public implementations such as the station area, the right to confine the land is given. Wol-Moo Lee, CEO of Mid-Me Networks, said, “It is difficult to do business if very few landlords endure the’barking’ that does not sell the land, but the land work to secure the land will be much easier.”

The government decided to ease building regulations such as floor area ratio (ratio of total floor space to the project site) and number of floors, and to ensure a certain profitability through public implementation’carrots’. Park Young-joon, Gangbyeon-Gangseo reconstruction coordinator, Ichon-dong, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, said, “With the existing floor area ratio and donation-acceptance regulations, the size of the house was further reduced and the project could not be carried out.

It also decided to simplify the business process. It is expected that the reconstruction redevelopment project period of 13 years or more can be shortened to less than 5 years. In the case of public-led reconstruction, it is also possible to guide the excess profit retrieval system (reconstruction charge), which is referred to as the’reconstruction undertaking’. The reconstruction charge is a system in which up to 50% of the house price is refunded in cash after moving in for a house price that has risen more than the local average. It is a representative regulation that suppresses reconstruction projects.

Housing secured by the development project is planned to be supplied mainly for pre-sale apartments. Public sales account for 70-80%, and public rental and public self-contained houses account for 20-30%.

“If you can get a new house quickly and don’t pay for the reconstruction, it will attract enough attention,” said Paik Jun, CEO of J&K Urban Development. “Would you like to participate in a place where the project is sluggish or in its early stages?”

Gangnam’s grand complex with good business is expected to be lukewarm. Jeong Bok-moon, president of the Jugong Complex 5 in Jamsil-dong, Songpa-gu, with about 4,000 households, said, “I don’t know how much I will approve of the public implementation, which is likely to be of poor quality because residents want to build luxury apartments representing the region through reconstruction.”

Demand for jeon and monthly rent is likely to increase for the time being

Experts believe that it can have a psychological effect on the market. Park Won-gap, a senior real estate expert at Kookmin Bank, analyzed that “it gives a strong signal that the supply will increase in the market, where the supply of urban housing will continue.” Byun Se-il, a research fellow at the Institute of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said, “It is a massive urban housing supply measure, so it seems that the buyer who was psychologically pursuing whether to buy a house will take a breath.”

However, there are many difficulties. Most of the government’s expected volume cannot be supplied unless the private sector comes. All 320,000 households in Seoul can do business only if the private sector participates, including resident consent.

Professor Kwon Dae-jung of Myongji University diagnosed that “the residential environment may deteriorate due to high-density development due to the increase of the floor area ratio and the ease of construction regulations,” and “there is a need for supplementary measures for the right to sunlight and traffic congestion.” Some argue that private supply should also be activated. Professor Seo Jin-hyung of Kyungin Women’s University said, “There is a limit to the supply of housing only through the public sector,” he said. “There is a need for deregulation to increase supply through private housing projects.”

Unrest in the jeon and monthly rent market may be worse. The government’s supply plan is based on’land’ rather than’housing’. It takes more time to actually move in. Heo Yun-gyeong, a research fellow at the Korea Institute of Construction Industry, predicted that “the number of occupants this year and next year will decrease compared to before, and the demand for jeon and monthly rent will increase further as the air demand increases according to supply expansion measures.

Reporter Ahn Jang-won [email protected]