![[김정남의 월가브리핑]How much is Musk’s Tesla fair value?](https://image.edaily.co.kr/images/Photo/files/NP/S/2021/02/PS21021500091.jpg "[김정남의 월가브리핑]How much is Musk’s Tesla fair value?")
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[뉴욕=이데일리 김정남 특파원] There’s something that goes up and down frequently on Wall Street these days, so it’s Bitcoin. According to CoinMarketCap, a virtual asset exchange, on the 14th at 12 p.m. (local time), bitcoins soared to $4,8962 (about 54.2 million won) per piece. It has risen to $49,485 in the last 24 hours. Leading institutional investors still see bitcoin as a speculative or gambling board. But a recent reporter was surprised to see a report from Bloomberg. Major investment bank (IB) Morgan Stanley is considering investing in Bitcoin. Even if the actual investment is made, it will not be large. However, there seems to be a meaning that the perspective of viewing Bitcoin is changing little by little.
There are many reasons why Bitcoin is attracting attention. Among them, I think Elon Musk was responsible for 80% of the bull market. Musk’s fandom felt by journalists in the United States is beyond imagination. There are companies like Microsoft’s Bill Gates, Apple’s Steve Jobs, and Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett, where the CEO acts as a’walking billboard’. Musk’s influence seems to be greater than that. The proof that the price of bitcoin dances in one tweet he sends.
Tesla target price sharply split
Musk’s tremendous fandom is also reflected in the share price of Tesla, an electric vehicle company he leads. Tesla shares hit more than $900 per share in the last 52 weeks. The 12-day closing price is $816.12. At the end of June last year, seven months ago, it was a stock that was below 200 dollars. In the meantime, investors judged that Tesla’s corporate value had increased 4 to 5 times, for whatever reason, and they burned money on Tesla. Tesla was founded in 2003. Musk became CEO in 2007. I started making money with the launch of the 1st generation Tesla Roadster in 2008. It was listed on the NASDAQ in 2010. It was just such a stock that was below $100 per share at the beginning of last year, but it has skyrocketed since last year. Compared to a year ago, the stock price rose a whopping 410.04%. The reporter is frankly not sure why the stock price of Tesla, a ten thousand years old, has soared.
This is also the case on Wall Street. Tesla is one of the major divisions within Wall Street. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently raised the Tesla target price from $810 to $880. Last week, Tesla’s stock price dropped to 810 dollars. He saw that it could be higher than it is now. Of course, I gave a buy opinion. Analyst Jonas said, “The sales volume could be larger in the electric vehicle division, which is the core business,” and “there is a great potential for growth in the energy division.” Alexander Porter, an analyst at Wall Street’s renowned IB Piper Sandler, set a target price of $1,200. He saw that 300-400 dollars per share could increase further than now. Piper Sandler is currently the most positive view of Tesla on Wall Street. Argus Research analyst Bill Seleskie also raised its target price from $777 to $1010. “Tesla is an undisputed leader in the electric vehicle market,” he said. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said the $950 per share was a neutral share price.
However, there are many views of Tesla negatively. JP Morgan is a representative. As analyst Ryan Brinkman sees, Tesla has a target price of $135. “No stock is overvalued like this,” he said. In the process of Tesla’s transition to mass production at a lower price, there are many risks in terms of technology and productivity. There are real concerns about Tesla right now. Looking at it, it seems that $135 is low right now, but the stock price at the end of April last year was about this. It’s been less than a year, so it’s not a long time. Itay Michaeli, a Citigroup analyst, suggested a target price of $159, saying, “We have a high risk (in our business structure).” Of course, I gave an opinion to sell. Ben Carlo, a senior analyst at research firm Baird, paid $736. That’s less than the stock price right now.
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‘A fandom beyond imagination’… Tesla soon Musk
Investment is said to be the realm of God. We will not be able to accurately predict Tesla stock prices in the future. But it seems necessary to understand the bullish and bearish logics.
First of all, it is the strength that only Tesla has. The reporter sees Tesla as Musk. The CEO’s role was decisive when a company with only 10 years of experience after launching the first product emerged as an icon of global innovation. In particular, if you watch Musk lead SpaceX and say that 1 million people can live on Mars, you seem to have the magical power that will always make your dream of’polyplanetary species’ that seems impossible. Investing is driven by psychology.
Musk recently appeared on the famous podcast’Joe Rogan Experience’. Logan asked Musk about the next generation of luxury roadster electric vehicles. “I want it to hover,” Musk said. His remarks mean vertical takeoff and landing, which is considered the ultimate electric vehicle model. The idea is to use lightweight batteries for self-driving to go through the air in the city, but Tesla has consistently expressed its willingness to dominate the personal air vehicle (PAV) market beyond simple electric vehicles. It is an idea that completely changes the frame of existing urban transportation. He also said, “We will put rocket technology on electric vehicles.”
Tesla has the technical foundation for PAVs. It’s a well-known fact that Tesla’s battery technology is very good. To preoccupy the PAV market, in the end, it fits with Tesla’s business orientation because it intends to win first place in flying electric vehicles. This is a story that makes it feel good for shareholders. The key to that possibility is whether it is possible to change the current laws and systems based on vehicles moving on the ground. In contrast with the increasingly lagging political and social systems, I don’t know if Tesla’s future growth potential, which sees the world through the eyes of science, is being evaluated more highly. Musk is seen as an icon of a challenge to the existing order in the United States.
Billionaire investor Chamas Parlyhapitiya, who is called the’Next Generation Warren Buffett’ on Wall Street these days, was very impressed with what he said recently. He said that a lot of hedge funds don’t invest in Tesla, “when I talk about hedge funds that aren’t accurate (that I don’t invest much in Tesla), I always say.” He’s known for holding a lot of Tesla stock, but he can’t find a reason to sell it.
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How to make an electric car well, even Bitcoin…
Tesla is clearly a company with endless potential for growth. Therefore, there are many opinions that even though the current stock price has skyrocketed for a short period of time, it will receive momentum in the future. Still, there are also many stories that’even if it rose compared to corporate fundamentals, it rose too much’.
I wonder if it is Bitcoin that Musk has been most interested in lately. Tesla has even revealed plans to sell vehicles with Bitcoin. It may seem natural now that Musk talks about not only Bitcoin, but also Dogecoin, GameStop (GameStop, GME), Mars migration, and so on. I will. (Unfortunately, Tesla’s stock price fell 4.24% last week.)
If the price of bitcoin, which rides on the extreme roller coaster, suddenly drops, I wonder if Tesla’s stock price will be under downward pressure. In addition, it raises the question of whether we need to look at other numbers to judge the corporate value besides the performance related to electric vehicles and solar power. From the perspective of shareholders, there may be complaints about’Isn’t this undermining shareholder value?’ JJ Kinahhan, chief market strategist of TD Ameritrade, said, “I have considered Tesla as a technology company because of its excellent battery technology, but it will take time to find out.” I feel that there are many voices saying’I don’t know Tesla’.
First of all, Tesla is incomparable to the so-called’big tech’ in terms of corporate size. Tesla and Apple are the No. 1 and No. 2 stocks in the US that Seohak ants bought the most. Let’s just compare it with Apple. In the fourth quarter of last year, Tesla’s net profit was $270 million. For Apple, it was $2.85 billion. It is more than 100 times different. It seems necessary to consider that Tesla was the first company to make a profit of over $700 million last year since its founding, in fact, a 10,000-year deficit. In addition, as JPMorgan pointed out, the challenge is to solve the technical problems that may arise when moving to a mass production system like existing automobile manufacturers.
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