[김용식의 클릭 주식시황] Sensitive reaction to US interest rate changes, expectation will increase

The domestic stock market declined for 5 consecutive trading days from the 4th, due to the decline in investment sentiment caused by the rise in US Treasury yields. After the middle of the week, the rise in interest rates had subsided and rebounded on the back of the passing of a stimulus plan worth $1.9 trillion in the US, recovering the 3050 point line.

The KOSPI index closed at 3054.39 points, up 28.13 points (0.92%) compared to the previous week.

By supply and demand, individuals and foreigners made net purchases of 1.683.7 billion won and 8265 billion won, respectively, and institutions net sold 2.34 trillion won.

Global stock markets are sensitive to changes in US interest rates, and expectations are expected to rise as the FOMC approaches.

Rather than showing a clear direction in the domestic stock market, it is highly likely to follow the trend of the global stock market and make a move in the box market.

Ahead of the FOMC, investors are interested in the US.

This is due to the expectation that the Fed will be able to come up with measures to respond to the volatile market.

The Fed, which considers market and communication very important, is likely to try to alleviate uncertainty in this FOMC, and if necessary, it is expected to accept some of the market’s predictions through economic outlook corrections or to clearly convey the content that market participants are getting ahead.

It is positive that there is an additional $1.9 trillion in stimulus package for the Biden administration.

The stimulus package includes a $1,400 subsidy per person.

If subsidies are used for real consumption, the inflation pressure that the market is concerned about may increase, but if it is used for investment, the pressure is likely to weaken.

In fact, at the end of December last year, much of the subsidies paid as stimulus measures went to the financial market rather than the real one, and the disaster subsidies at that time led to investments in bitcoin, US technology stocks, and small and medium-sized stocks.

This time, as the possibility of investing in technology stocks due to subsidies is higher, it seems necessary to pay attention, and the valuation burden is gradually lowering as the domestic stock market’s earnings estimates are raised.