[금주의 경제 일정] New Year’s Second Bank of Korea, when the standard interest rate is’freeze’

This week (February 22-26), the Bank of Korea’s February consumption and corporate sentiment-related indicators will be released and the Financial Monetary Committee will be held to determine the base rate.

On the 23rd (Tuesday) and 24th (Wednesday), the BOK releases the results of the February Consumer Trends Survey, the Business Survey Index (BSI) and the Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The consumer sentiment index (CCSI) for January was 95.4, up 4.2 points from December last year. CCSI rose as the outlook for economic and household financial conditions improved due to the calm of the third corona19 epidemic and anticipation of the start of vaccination. BSI’s BSI, which reflects all industries, was 77, up 2 points from a month ago. By industry, the manufacturing industry BSI rose 3 points to 85, and non-manufacturing industries such as the service industry rose 2 points from 68 to 70. Both indicators have reversed the decline in December from the rise in October and November of last year and then turned back to the uptrend, and we are interested in what the trend will look like in February while the third corona19 epidemic continues.

The BOK, held on the 25th, is expected to freeze the base rate. Since November of last year, as concerns over the economic downturn have increased due to the third spread of Corona 19 and social distancing, it is unlikely that the Financial Services Commission will raise the standard interest rate. However, considering the controversy over the overheating of the asset market such as real estate and stocks, interest rates cannot be easily lowered, so there is no other choice except for the sixth’freeze’ following last year’s July, August, October, November and January this year. . Earlier, as the economic downturn was expected due to the shock of Corona 19, the Financial Services Commission pointed out 0.75 percentage points in two months through’Big Cut’ (1.25% → 0.75%) on March 16 last year and an additional cut (0.75% → 0.5%) on May 28. I lowered interest rates quickly. Immediately after the FSC meeting, the BOK also released a revised economic outlook. It is noteworthy whether to revise the economic growth rate forecast in November last year (3% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022) to reflect the recent strong exports.

On the same day, the Ministry of Employment and Labor releases the results of the January labor force survey. Earlier, as of the last business day of December last year, the number of workers in businesses with more than one person was 18356,000, a decrease of 334,000 (-1.8%) from the previous year. This is the second largest decline since the decline of 365,000 in April of last year, and in May of last year (-31), the decrease sharply decreased in October (-45,000) and November (-45,000) increased again. It is the first time since it has re-entered the 300,000 level. According to the employment trend for January by the National Statistical Office, the number of employed people last month was 25818,000, a decrease of 982,000 from a year ago. This is the largest decline since December 1998 (-1283,000 people) during the financial crisis, and it is difficult to expect an improved figure as well as the results of the labor force survey at business enterprises.

In addition, on the 24th, the National Statistical Office released statistics related to the population, such as last year’s birth and death statistics, population trends in December, and domestic population movement in January 2021, and the Fair Trade Commission deliberated on sanctions for unfair support activities of SK Telecom on the same day. Present the results.

Summary-=Reporter Hong Seok-dong