[금경 선정 2020 증권 10대 뉴스] KOSPI 1400 line to 2700 line’excellent’ … continued aftermath of suspension of private equity repurchase

Strong’retail’ thanks to booming stock market … Driven earnings
IPO craze is hot … It seems to continue next year
Securities companies face consumer criticism due to private equity crisis
Stock index breaks above 2700 line …’excitement’ after 2 years and 10 months
Individuals turn’sighs’ on extending short selling measures
Advancement of Donghak ants and Seohak ants …’The heyday of Jurin’

[FE금융경제신문=안다정 기자] This year, the securities industry had the most accidents in the entire financial sector. After the index crash, it also showed off in the huge crisis of Corona 19, breaking through the 2700 line, a record high. In addition, the private equity crisis faced the dishonor of lack of consumer protection. The issues that shook the securities industry this year have been summarized.

◇Western Texas (WTI) crude oil negative oil price fluctuation

On April 20 (local time), futures prices for May delivery of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) plunged 300% compared to the previous day, recording negative oil prices. It recorded -37.63 dollars per barrel, but Kiwoom Securities HTS did not recognize the negative. Crude oil futures investors were forcibly stopped buying and selling HTS, so they could not proceed with a rollover (month change). As a result, the credibility was degraded, such as increased investor distrust over HTS malfunction.

After recording negative oil prices like this, oil prices hovered around the low for a while as demand for crude oil could not easily recover due to the aftermath of Corona 19. ETF prices for asset managers based on WTI crude oil futures fell below 20% compared to January as the’supercontango’ phenomenon continued in April. Even now, the aftermath of the Corona 19 pandemic continues, which is far below the price of crude oil futures in January.

In addition, although interest in the’Kubbus’ ETP has soared recently, it has been shown that the yield is actually negative. As the discrepancy rate, which means the difference between the market value and the indicator value, once widened to nearly 100%, the financial authorities began to take follow-up measures, such as announcing investment notes.

◇KOSPI 1400 line retreat

On March 19, the Kospi plunged to the 1400 line in the aftermath of Corona 19. This is due to the impact of the global economy and the domestic economy’s dependence on exports caused by Corona 19. The stock market was also hit hard as the situation of the Corona 19 Pandemic was shared around the world. In 2019, the stock market fell into a’panic’ as it recorded 1400 lines, a further drop than the 1700 line, the lowest point of the year at the time. As of March 19, the stock price of Samsung Electronics, the boss of the KOSPI, has retreated to the 40,000 won level.

The KOSPI, which ended at 1457.64 points on March 19, fell 133.56 points (8.39%) on that day. This was the result of closing down for 7 consecutive trading days. As a result of a temporary ban on short selling by the financial authorities from March 20th, it rebounded with 1566.15 points the following day. Since then, it has repeatedly fluctuated, but as of the end of March, it recovered to the 1700 line and sighed.

◇ Aftermath of the subsequent’Lime Incident’

The private equity turmoil, triggered by the banking sector’s DLF (Derivative Combined Fund) crisis last year, has been hitting the securities industry this year. As of March this year, as the redemption of KRW 1.6 trillion continued to be suspended, Lime Fund has emerged as a’fraud fund’. Many securities companies and banknotes made profits by selling private equity funds without verification, but as a result, financial complaints by the FSS exploded.

After going through the Financial Supervisory Service’s Sanctions Deliberation Committee (sanctions review) to discuss the level of disciplinary action for the Lime incident, the Financial Services Commission’s Securities and Futures Committee (Securities and Futures Committee) is currently in discussion, and investors are continuing. In particular, Shinhan Investment, KB Securities, and Daishin Securities are subject to severe disciplinary action by former and current CEOs, and the securities industry is also watching this.

The phenomenon of’low trust in private equity funds’ triggered by the lime crisis has turned into a disruption in the business of financial companies. This is because banking counters and other branch offices of securities companies have actually given up a branch of financial products, such as going into a’voluntary censorship’ that does not recommend private equity funds.

Even during the 21st National Assembly audit period held in October this year, the Political Affairs Committee, which has the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service as audited bodies, continued to criticize the responsibilities of private equity fund managers and sellers. The private equity crisis shook not only the financial industry, but also the politics, such as Seong-soo Eun, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, Seok-hun Yoon, and representative of Daishin Securities Oh Ik-geun received a series of inquiries about the Lime crisis.

◇The Optimus crisis turns into a’second rhyme crisis’

On June 30, a new private equity fund redemption was suspended under the name of’the second lime fund’. The’Optimus Fund’ of Optimus Asset Management sparked a large-scale’fund run’ situation with a cessation of redemption of 5151 billion won.

The arrow to stop repurchase of Optimus Fund was directed to NH Investment & Securities, the largest seller. Out of 5151 billion won, it sold 4827 billion won, more than 87% of the total sales. In this process, the product subcommittee’s poor product verification has created controversy. Since then, the controversy that the Financial Supervisory Service and the trustee Hana Bank, and the Securities Depository, which is an office manager, could not avoid the controversy that they did not properly verify.

Even now, the situation with Optimus Fund is ongoing. The due diligence result of Samil Accounting Firm, which was in charge of the due diligence of the Lime incident, came out, but there is a difference from the due diligence result of NH Investment & Securities, increasing confusion. Among the vendors, NH Investment & Securities, Korea Investment & Securities, and Hi Investment & Securities appear to be working on the Optimus Fund. In July, NH Investment & Securities proposed a liquidity advance payment plan, and Korea Investment & Securities quickly decided to compensate 70% after stopping the redemption. Hi Investment & Securities is in a lawsuit with HLB, a KOSDAQ-listed biosign, worth 30 billion won.

◇ Controversy over capital gains tax on stocks raised by the’large shareholder’s 300 million standard’

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance said that through the ‘2020 Tax Law Amendment’ in October, the current’Largest Shareholder Requirements’, which is subject to stock capital gains tax, if the listed stocks hold more than 1 billion won. It stipulated that it is subject to capital gains tax.

The government proposal faced a big backlash from individual investors. At the end of the year, in order not to become a major shareholder, the sale volume is released to the market, and the fact that such a’sell bomb’ induces a decline in the stock price has emerged as a public opinion. Despite market backlash, the government showed its willingness to enforce the’requirement for the largest shareholder of 300 million’, and some responded that they were not pushing for force without consensus from market participants to secure tax revenue. Subsequently, a dismissal proposal for the Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and the Deputy Prime Minister of the Economy was introduced in the Cheong Wa Dae national petition, and many ripples began.

Public opinion began to reverse when some of the passport officials also suggested that they should review the “large shareholder requirements” against the government’s stance. This is because Deputy Prime Minister Hong received intensive questions in this regard during the government’s audit of the government, and later expressed his intention to resign. The resignation was rejected due to President Moon Jae-in’s re-confidence, and the Ministry of Information and Transportation officially announced in October that it would withdraw the ‘300 million major shareholder requirement’ and maintain it at the ‘1 billion standard’. As a result, many individual investors, institutional investors, and financial-related organizations were welcoming, and the’requirement for the largest shareholders of 300 million’ came to an end.

◇IPO’Frenzy’ signal flare and SK Biopharm’s’Dad Sang’

SK Biopharm, which was voted as the biggest IPO (public public offering) in the first half of July, recorded’Tatasang’ and stood tall as the leading hitter in the public offering stock subscription craze that froze with Corona 19. One month after listing on the KOSPI, the company succeeded in incorporating the KOSPI 200 early and continued the story of success.

After listing, the public offering price of 49,000 won was exceeded, and the market capitalization was higher than that of the parent company, SK, leading to a’reversal’ phenomenon, as well as the’branding’ of the SK trademark, which resulted in an increase in the stock price.

It was found that SK Biopharm had a large number of researchers and many of its core personnel resigned. After receiving the allocation of employee stocks, there was an uninteresting happening in which the retirees continued, but it is known that the retirees sold their stakes in employee stocks and earned a market margin of 1.6 billion won.

In addition, Kakao Games promoted listing on the KOSDAQ as it emerged as’Daefish’ following SK Biopharm. Kakao Games succeeded in winning the box office in name and reality, surpassing the subscription competition rate of 1000:1.

However, in the public offering stock allocation method, the amount of general investors (individuals) is up to 20%, so there is a lot of demand for subscription, but the supply is far below this. Accordingly, a question was raised on the method of allocating subscription to public offering stocks. There is a growing voice among individual investors that institutional allocations should be allocated to individual investors.

After that, Big Hit Entertainment, which was listed in October, seemed to be leading the 3rd subscription fever, but after listing, doubts about standards such as the calculation of IPO competition price began to rise as controversy over overvaluation began. In addition, they faced criticism that the securities firm’s report presented too high a target price.

However, as Kakao’s three brothers (Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, Kakao Page), LG Energy Solutions, and Krafton are aiming to be listed in next year, the public stocks are expected to continue in 2021 following 2020.

◇Retail and WM’s heyday opens

While most of the 2Q and 3Q performances of securities companies achieved good results, it was found that the’retail’ division was by far the most driving the increase in earnings. This is because the stock market boom has been steadily maintained throughout the year, as the number of stock investors, mainly large companies, wanting to enter the stock market has increased significantly, and due to the impact of this, trading value and deposits have risen markedly.

Samsung Securities, known as the traditional WM famous family, has focused on increasing customer contact by revitalizing the SNI club, and Mirae Asset Daewoo, which has a equity capital of KRW 10 trillion, uses the non-face-to-face (untact) keynote revitalizing currents to digitally transform. I spurred my work back. As a result of increasing the contact points with customers through such a strategy, the retail and WM divisions were remarkable.

Contrary to expectations that the IB division, which was the traditional food of existing securities companies, will shrink due to difficulties such as due diligence, it has been shown to have contributed significantly to the performance, with net profit increasing by nearly twice compared to the previous year, mainly by some securities companies, as they made a profit due to the public offering stock fever. .

◇Decision to extend the ban on short selling

The Financial Services Commission announced that it would extend the ban on short selling, which was banned for a limited time for six months in September, until next March. Accordingly, the ban on short selling has been maintained for one year, and opinions are being gathered to resume in March next year.

The Korea Exchange and the financial authorities held a public short-selling hearing in September and held a meeting to collect opinions on short-selling from institutions and individuals. At the public hearing held at the Center of the Banking Federation, the accessibility of short selling, the system to encourage stock price declines, and the damage to the stock market due to the drop of short selling by foreign investors were discussed.

However, it attracted considerable attention, such as making a bursting sound due to the differing views of institutional and individual investors. The Korea Equity Investors Association (Han Tu-yeon), an individual investor group, pointed out the accessibility issues of individuals, such as crying out for the abolition of the short selling system, while strongly addressing the damages of individual investors. However, institutional investors showed disagreements by emphasizing the net function of short selling as a way to prevent stock prices from overheating.

The Financial Services Commission extended six months from the expiration date of the ban on short selling after going through a process for collecting opinions after a public hearing, and it is known that it is currently collecting stories from all walks of life to improve the short selling system.

◇Seohak ants crossing the water, Donghak ants raising the index… Become a’big hand’ in the stock market

It is by far the’ants’ (individual investors) that have increased their status in the stock market this year. The KOSPI index, which had fallen without knowing the end of last March, continued to decline day after day as foreigners’ selling offense increased. However, as Donghak ants started to defend the index, the market trend changed, and the individual buying trend began to continue.

Due to the aftermath of the real estate market regulation and the advent of a low interest rate environment, nowhere liquidity began to flow into the stock market, and as a result, the KOSPI gradually recovered and began to change from’blue light’ to’red light’. In particular, Samsung Electronics, the boss of the KOSPI, also occupied an unprecedented proportion, with the proportion of individual investors reaching 30% this year. With the rise of BBIG, represented by bio, battery, internet, and games, liquidity of individual investors began to focus on sectors that emerged as a beneficiary industry in the Corona 19 situation. There are also more companies that have recorded a connection point, with the stock price rising nearly twice as high as at the beginning of this year.

In addition, the number of Seohak ants who began to invest in foreign stocks as they started investing in stocks increased. Foreign currency deposits have also begun to increase. According to Savero, an information portal of the Korea Securities Depository, the amount of foreign currency funds held by domestic securities companies from January to the 15th of this month reached $2.3234 billion (2,553.4 billion won). This is a 248% increase from last year ($67.72 million).

◇KOSPI 2700 breakthrough… Achieve an all-time high

On January 29, 2018, KOSPI surpassed the 2600 line by recording 2607.10 points, and on November 23, after two years and 10 months, it broke through the 2600 line. Following this, the KOSPI 2700 era has arrived as it ended with 2731.45 points on the 4th.

According to the securities firm’s annual outlook report, interest is drawing on whether the KOSPI boom can continue as the 2700-3000 line is presented above the KOSPI index next year. There is also an opinion that’it has risen enough’, but optimism is being suggested that the KOSPI 2700 line can be maintained as expectations for global economic normalization are reflected in accordance with the expectation for the development of the Corona 19 vaccine.

Reporter Da-jung Ahn [email protected]

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