[그래픽텔링]Thanks to the vaccine? Declining Corona 19 Confirmation… Is it an inflection point or a temporary lull?

As the number of new corona19 confirmed cases around the world is rapidly decreasing, the third pandemic (a pandemic pandemic) is also passing its peak.

There is a sense of relief that I have passed the Hangobi from everywhere. There are also announcements of reopening of shops and schools that have been closed since March.

However, the precautionary theory that it is still too early to be reassured is too tough. If you look closely at the situation, there is still a risk of creating a wave of’New Pandemic’.

Is the recent situation a clear turn of trend or a temporary lull?

According to the weekly (February 15-21) Corona 19 report released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on the 23rd (local time) Last week, the number of new confirmed cases worldwide was 2.4 million, down 11% from the previous week. It has declined for six consecutive weeks. The number of deaths has also declined for the third week.

The decline was also evident in the global corona19 confirmed trend analyzed by the New York Times (NYT). The number of confirmed cases, which has increased sharply since the appearance of the mutant virus in December of last year, is declining rapidly after peaking at 750,000 on January 11 last month.

With this, Professor Wapa El Sadr of Columbia Mailman Graduate School “We are still in jeopardy, and we are in a long tunnel,” but “at the same time, the light at the end of the tunnel began to appear.”Said.

However, the countries leading the recent decrease in the number of infected people are those that showed a sharp increase a month ago. The representative place is the United States. Compared to the peak in January, the number of confirmed cases worldwide on February 20 decreased by about 380,000, of which more than 180,000 in the United States fell. Following this, there was a clear decline in confirmed cases in the UK, South Africa, and Germany.

In these countries, strong containment measures, strengthened social distancing, vaccination, and natural immunity are among the factors that have significantly decreased the number of infections in these countries.

The representative places where the blockade measures have worked are in the UK and Germany. Britain has entered into a strong containment since January 4, when the spread of the mutant virus began. Unless they are commuting to work because they cannot buy necessities or work from home, they are not allowed to leave their homes. At the same time, it also speeded up vaccination.

The U.S., with the disgrace of the most infections and the most deaths, has not entered a full blockade. However, it is evaluated that social distancing and mask-wearing culture gradually settled, leading to a decrease in infected people. With the inauguration of President Joe Biden on January 20th, the government’s response stance has also changed significantly, such as requiring public institutions to wear masks.

Professor Caitlin Rivers-Jones Hopkins said, “After witnessing the deteriorating situation with their own eyes last winter, people canceled appointments, wore masks, and stayed at home,” he analyzed. “This is a combination of fewer confirmed cases.”

In the case of South Africa, it is observed that some sort of natural immune effect would have worked. Last month, because the spread was so strong, the number of infected people exploded, and the pace slowed as fewer people to infect them.

Here, an analysis shows that where the vaccination was started early, the effect began to take place little by little.

In the UK, which began vaccination on December 8, currently 27% of the population has completed the first dose of the corona vaccine. On the 25th, Professor Kay Jo, a professor at King’s College London School of Medicine, at CBS Radio’Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show’ “The number of confirmed cases in the UK dropped to a quarter level in two months of vaccination”“In the case of a simple blockade, (the number of confirmed patients) does not drop, but what was able to decrease so rapidly was that the vaccine was also affected.”

This is the background of optimism that if the vaccine starts to take effect in earnest, it will solidify the decline trend.

Despite the decrease in confirmed cases, warnings from the’New Pandemic’ continue to appear. Looking at the regional situation, unlike the United States and Western Europe, the number of confirmed cases is increasing in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The fact that the mutant virus, which has become more infectious, is spreading rapidly is also a big risk factor.

Vaccines are also insufficient to be effective immediately. The vaccines used to date have been intensively vaccinated in only 10 countries. Even in countries that started vaccination due to lack of vaccine supplies, the vaccination rate is not rising as much as originally planned.

German Prime Minister Merkel said in a videoconference within the House of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and Christian Socialist Party (CSU0) on the 23rd, “We are still in the midst of a third pandemic,” and warned of premature optimism.

Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Central Accident Control Headquarters, said on the 4th, “There are concerns that the outbreak may come again in March. It is a situation in which experts and quarantine authorities have not completely ruled out such a possibility and must prepare.” It is a warning that if the quarantine rules are not followed, the fourth epidemic could begin soon as the period between the previous three outbreaks has been shortened.

“The recent decline in confirmed cases has opened a small window of opportunity for us,” said Bruno Xiancio, head of the European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “We should focus on vaccinating as many people as possible while continuing quarantine measures.” Emphasized.

Written by reporter Kim Hong-beom [email protected]
Graphic = Kim Young-ok. Park Kyung-min. Reporter Kim Kyung-jin [email protected]