[경제][팩트와이] Disaster subsidies controversy, narat debt is dangerous?

[앵커]

Tensions continue between the ruling party and the fiscal authorities over the 4th Disaster Subsidy payment method.

In addition, while the Democratic Party emphasizes that it has sufficient fiscal capacity, Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki expresses difficulty in expanding subsidies, saying that the growth rate of Narat debt is too steep.

Reporter Seung-Hwan Kim considered the controversy over Narat debt.

[기자]

The conflict between the government and the ruling party over the disaster subsidies since the beginning of the year.

[김태년 / 더불어민주당 원내대표 (5일) : 발상 전환과 대담한 결단이 필요합니다. 위기는 위기답게 절박한 자세로 재정 역할을 더욱 강화해 국민 삶과 경제를 지켜야 합니다.]

[홍남기 / 경제부총리 (5일) : 국가 채무가 늘어나는 속도, 재정 적자가 나타나고 그것이 다시 회복되는 가능성 이런 것들을 다 감안 안 할 수가 없고요.]

It is a long-standing conflict between the ruling party and the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, which is trying to protect the country’s barracks, saying that in a crisis, it must loosen its finances.

▲ More financial resources than developed countries?

In terms of objective indicators, it is true that Korea has more fiscal capacity than major developed countries.

The ratio of national debt to gross domestic product is 40%, less than half the average of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Even if we look at IMF statistics, which include more debt than the government’s standards, last year, Korea had the lowest national debt ratio among 11 countries in the G20 developed countries.

In particular, even when considering the quality of debt, the share of short-term debt with maturity of less than one year is only 7.3%.

The share of foreign-owned government bonds is also the lowest compared to that of major countries, so there is little risk of sudden loss of money.

▲ The problem is speed?

The goal of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance is to keep the national debt ratio within 60%.

However, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Information, it will rise to 47.3% this year due to the influence of the Corona 19 supplement, and close to 60%, which is the Maginot line in 2024.

The IMF’s sovereign debt ratio, including non-profit public institution debt, exceeds 60% in 2025.

When calculated from 2015, it is the 9th largest increase among 37 developed countries in the IMF classification.

[김우철 / 서울시립대 세무학과 교수 : 아직 40% 후반이다 중반이다, 이런 생각을 하면서 부채를 관리하게 되면 2025년에 65%조차도 초과할 수밖에 없습니다.]

There is plenty of financial space right now, but with an unprecedented rapid aging globally and demand for welfare is snowballing, increasing debt for future generations is a difficult problem to decide.

YTN Seunghwan Kim[[email protected]]is.

.Source

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