[경제][전문가 분석] Holding tax, how much will I pay

◇ Announcer Hyungjin Choi (Hyungjin Choi): Recently, various issues are emerging in the real estate market. Not long ago, voices of concern over the direction of the 3rd new town and the impact of the real estate market were heard due to the LH crisis, and the announcement of the publicly announced prices for apartment houses across the country yesterday is another noisy. The real estate market is expected to stabilize due to voices of concern about whether there will be a big change in taxes due to the public announcement increase rate and the tax burden of multi-homeowners. Let’s take a look at the recent real estate issues and how they affect the market. Then let’s have someone to talk to. Won-gap Park, senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, is connected to the phone. Hi?

◆ Won-gap Park, Senior Real Estate Specialist (hereinafter, Won-gap Park): Hello.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: Yesterday, the publicly announced price of apartment houses nationwide was announced, and there is a saying that it has risen to the maximum in 14 years. How much is it?

◆ Park Won-gap: Statistically, it is 19.08%. You can see that it is almost 20%. It is not only for Seoul, but you can see it as the national average. It’s mainly the official price of apartment houses. You can see it as a concept that includes apartments and villas. You can read it from today. I think you can search and check the apartment number. The realization of the quoted price began with the administration of this government, but there was no big change like this one. It has been 4-5% almost every year since 2017, but this time it is around 19%, so it can be considered a high level.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: Until this morning, the production crew, including me, entered the site where you can view the published prices, and many people are curious, so I cannot access the site well. Will it be fine in the afternoon?

◆ Won-Gap Park: You can do it on mobile. If you download the Korea Real Estate Agency application, you can easily check it.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: A while ago, you said that it was an average of 19.08% not only in the metropolitan area but also nationwide. Is the situation different by region?

◆ Park Won-gap: Generally speaking, metropolitan cities in the Seoul metropolitan area are almost double-digit numbers. Sejong City rose the most, up 70%. Actually, looking at the KB market price, the apartment price in Sejong City rose 45% last year. It can be said that the market price itself has risen in the official price realization rate, so it has increased a lot. Seoul is the national average. It’s 19.91%, and Busan is about 19.67%. However, Jeju Island has the lowest rate of increase among cities and provinces, and you can see it at around 1.7%. Interestingly, even in Seoul, Gangnam and Seocho rose by 13%, with Nowon-gu in Gangbuk and Seongbuk-gu with 34% and 28%. Last year, the apartment market in Seoul is called the Bigangnam Rebellion. It can be said that the prices of houses in the non-Gangnam region have risen more in terms of published prices than in Gangnam.

◇ Choi Hyung-jin: I worry about whether the tax will increase significantly, but will this affect me?

◆ Won-gap Park: The reason why the tax is lowered is about 600 million won or less. Most of the apartments in Seoul have an average price of over 1 billion. People who have apartments of national housing anywhere in downtown Seoul believe that the tax burden is inevitably increased. I looked at the analysis of the ownership tax presented by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. If you say that you own an apartment with a market price of 760 million won last year and then it has risen to 1 billion this year, you can see that the ownership tax will increase by 30% from about 1.23 million won last year to 1.6 million won this year. There are standards such as 1.2 billion, 1.5 billion, etc. of the published price, and in this case, it can be considered that it is increased by more than 40% because it has increased a lot. You may not have a good sense of it. Say you have two houses in Gangnam. For example, if you have Acro River Park 33 pyeong in Banpo-dong, Seocho-gu, or Daechi-dong Eunma Apartment 33 pyeong, you have two in Gangnam. Then, you have to pay close to 120 million won this year from about 53 million won last year. . There are conditions. Assuming that the apartment owner is under the age of 60 and has no long-term ownership benefits, such as acquired in January last year, the burden of ownership tax is higher than expected.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: From the example you just mentioned, it almost doubled. In the Ministry of Land,
One homeowner whose disclosure is less than 600 million will pay property tax burden. How do you view it?

◆ Won-Gap Park: In fact, it can be said that it is true by applying the special local tax rate according to the plan to ease the burden of property tax. For example, if a person who owns a house with a market price of 660 million won last year said that it rose to 860 million won, last year they paid about 1.10 million won, but this year it is 8% lower to 930,000 won. In most areas, except for Seoul, there are many apartments with the official price of 600 million or less. Even if the official price rises a lot this time, the intensive increase in the ownership tax burden is likely to increase the tax burden even for single-owners in areas where relatively high-priced houses such as Gangnam, Masongseong, and Pangyo are concentrated. Those with two or three houses will pay more taxes than you think.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: For example, I own a house with an expensive disclosure, but there are many people who have retired and have no income. Will the ownership tax increase even in this case?

◆ Won-Gap Park: Right. However, the property tax is the same. The tax can be reduced by up to 80%. If you are 60 years of age or older and hold it for 5 years or more, there is a reduction or exemption. Even if there is, the proportion of property tax is more than half of the total ownership tax. So, even if there are some tax cuts, it is not expected that the overall ownership tax burden will be greatly reduced in Gangnam.

◇ Hyung-jin Choi: Will the tax increase, the market will be sold mainly by multi-homed people?
I also have this expectation. This would also be the effect the government expected. How do you see it?

◆ Won-gap Park: There will be a sale. However, I am telling you that it is not likely to be spilled. I mentioned that the burden of holding tax will increase, but the tax base date is June 1. From then on, the transfer tax also goes up. In areas subject to adjustment, such as Seoul, the transfer tax rate for multi-homed people is increased by 10 percentage points, so the two overlap, so there may be a sale before that. So I’m seeing the timing from the end of this month to the end of April. It will be a low-cost sale with a quick sale personality. Because it means that you have to pay the balance by the end of May. If so, when you say you have to sign a contract a month in advance, you have to do it before April. For end-users, if you absolutely need a house, it’s a good idea to pay attention to low-cost sales. However, there are many multi-homed people who have already arranged to some extent through sale or donation. So, even if a sale comes out, I predict that the market will be crunched.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: Then, if you are currently looking for a house for the purpose of living, there may be some quantity available from the end of March to the end of April?

◆ Won-Gap Park: Yes, it is not a lot, so if you really need it, it would be better to contact several brokerages in advance and tell them that you are willing to purchase when this price comes up.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: After listening to the commissioner’s words, may I think that even this would not help stabilize the house price?

◆ Park Won-gap: The price won’t drop right away. Because the real estate market has a psychological characteristic of loss avoidance. There is a tendency to not sell it cheaply, but shouldn’t the stabilizing effect last? The market has a characteristic that is effective only when it is accumulated rather than a single-shot policy. Obviously, this is expected to have a great effect on stabilizing house prices, centering on the Gangnam expensive houses, and when the housing market goes like this, expensive houses are now burdensome. So, I think there may be a trend that reorganizes centered on mid-to-low prices.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: On the contrary, if the tax rises, this effect will cause the landlords to raise the rent or this effect. How do you view this?

◆ Won-Gap Park: I also think that there could be a change in the rental car market overall. In other words, the jeonse disappears and the rent goes over. Some of the retirees have heard of it, and there are also those who will receive the rent to pay the final tax. In this case, there may be a tendency to prefer monthly rent rather than cheonsei. Many retirees are worried, but I think there may be a form of renting an expensive house where they lived and living in a low-cost suburb. I would say that this is the separation trend between ownership and residence. Even in this way, there may be a tendency to lower the tax burden in the future. In a way, it is not an exaggeration to say that we are doing what we call real estate. So I also think that there may be a tendency to diversify with financial assets.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: The government is pushing for the realization of the official price. How far has this been adjusted?

◆ Park Won-gap: The average rate of actualization of the published price this year is 70.2%. If the market price is 100, it means that about 70% is reflected. As long as the house price does not drop significantly next year, the published price will inevitably rise according to the roadmap for realizing the published price. So, last year, the government announced a plan to realize the official price, and it decided to increase the number of apartments and apartments to 90% by 2030. The higher the price, the faster the timing. For example, if the quoted price is 900 million to 1.5 billion, it will be set at 90% in 2027, and if it is over 1.5 billion, it will be 90% in 2025. Then, I think that even if you own only one national housing in Gangnam, you may have to pay tens of thousands of won in ownership tax.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: Will the public price increase and the health insurance will also go up?

◆ Won-gap Park: He said that this time we are doing some easing. Mid-to-low-priced homes are unlikely to rise significantly, and high-end homes are expected to see some increase in health insurance premiums.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: One of the listeners said,’I don’t understand that I raise taxes so much because the price of my house, which I bought with my money in a capitalist society, goes up.’ Another person said,’Isn’t the fact that the rent increase means that the house price has increased that much? It’s an enviable story for me because I made money in a short amount of time.’ He said. Also,’It is one house in Seoul, one house in Gimpo with a public announcement of less than 500 million, and one household and two houses. Is it subject to heavy taxation?

◆ Won-Gap Park: Isn’t Gimpo designated as an area for adjustment right now? So, of course, you can see that the detailed wall is increasing.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: Lastly, the official price adjustment will continue in the future. Will it pass like this every time? How do you forecast the future real estate market?

◆ Won-Gap Park: I talked about the rate of actualization of the quoted price, but if it goes up to 90%, it will be noisy because the details will increase. But when the house price rises, the value of own assets increases, so I don’t feel a big burden, but when it falls, I have to be more sensitive to it. However, I would like to say that overall taxes are also a big variable, but you also need to consider the fatigue caused by the long-term rise in house prices. Based on the Seoul metropolitan area, I don’t know whether it is the top or not. However, I would say that it is correct to be in the high-evaluation phase. For some, now is the peak, no, until 2024, various opinions are now on the shoulders of Boon, so it can be dangerous to think a little conservatively and approach your house for investment purposes. In particular, isn’t there a story about normalizing interest rates? So, even if you buy a house, it would be good to think about a cheaper approach.

◇ Hyungjin Choi: Thank you for speaking today.

◆ Won-Gap Park: Thank you.