吳, surpassing all age groups except for the 40s
Democratic Party Organizational Power is the Key
[아시아경제 오주연 기자] After the unification of the opposition candidates, the approval rating of the opposition mayor of Seoul is increasing. In a poll that first appeared after the decision to unify the two candidates Oh Se-hoon and Ahn Cheol-soo (23rd), the approval ratings of the Democratic Party candidate Oh Se-hoon and Park Young-sun, together with the Democratic Party candidate, gapped by 18.5 percentage points. It was a difference of 1.4 percentage points from the bilateral confrontation held ten days ago in the same organization.
On the 25th, Real Meter commissioned OhmyNews and surveyed 806 people aged 18 and over living in Seoul on the 24th. As a result, more than half of the respondents, 55.0%, supported Oh. Park’s approval rating was 36.5%. The gap between the two candidates is 18.5% points, which is outside the margin of error (±3.5% points at the 95% confidence level).
By age group, Candidate Oh surpassed Candidate Park in all age groups except for the 40s. In particular, the gap in approval ratings between Candidate Oh (60.1%) and Candidate Park (21.1%) in their 20s (ages 18 to 29) is noteworthy. It’s nearly three times the difference. In their 40s, referred to as the’concrete support layer’, the approval rating of Candidate Oh was 34.7% and Candidate Park 57.9%.
The gap in approval ratings between the two candidates is becoming more difficult after the unification of the opposition candidates.
Since Candidate Oh was elected as the final candidate for the power of the people, Candidate Oh (54.5%) surpassed Candidate Park (37.4%) by 17.1 percentage points in the bilateral confrontation conducted by Realmeter on the 13th to 14th at the request of the Munhwa Ilbo. At that time, they were largely out of the error range (±3.1% points at the 95% confidence level), but this kind of composition has been established since the unification of the pan-optics.
Yongin University professor Choi Chang-ryul analyzed, “It is difficult to explain the gap of close to 20% points only by character and policy,” and analyzed that “this election has become the character of a’political judge’.” However, he predicted that “it is difficult for this gap to persist,” and that “the Democratic Party’s organizational power and the loosening power of conservatives can be key.”
For more information on public opinion polls, refer to the website of Real Meter or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Committee.
Reporter Oh Joo-yeon [email protected]