[아이뉴스24 장유미 기자] One of the memory semiconductors, the DRAM fixed transaction price (transaction price between companies) rebounded after 8 months, and a’green light’ was also on the performance of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
In the market, there are several interpretations of this increase in DRAM prices. While there are observations that the semiconductor supercycle will begin in earnest this year, opinions are confronting that it is still impossible to come up with a positive outlook only with a temporary price rebound.
Accordingly, related companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also watching the future trends.
According to DRAMeXchange, a market research institute on the 1st, the DRAM fixed transaction price, which plunged by about 9% three months ago, rose slightly in January of this year after being flat in November-December last year. In the case of PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 2133MHz), the fixed transaction price was $3.0 on average in January this year, up 5.26% from the previous month. This is the first increase in eight months since it hit $3.31 in May and June of last year.
Previously, the DRAM fixed transaction price decreased 5.44% from the previous month in July of last year, and remained at $3.13 for three months until September, and then decreased by nearly 9% in October, the beginning of the fourth quarter. This was largely due to the fact that server companies that had increased DRAM orders in preparation for the coronavirus outbreak in the first half of last year entered inventory in the second half. In addition, due to sanctions by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Huawei stopped purchasing memory semiconductors from mid-September last year, and the supply excess in October was also effective.
However, as supply and demand regained balance from November of last year, the fixed DRAM transaction price in December also stabilized at $2.85, the same as the previous one. This was close to the year-round low of $2.84 recorded in January.
In addition, since December last year, the spot price of DRAM has jumped, and it has been observed that the fixed transaction price in the market will rise sooner or later. This is because spot prices usually act as leading indicators of fixed transaction prices. Accordingly, suppliers have also been passive in selling products to PC makers since the end of last year, preparing for price increases.
An industry official said, “Since November of last year, as supply and demand regained balance, the fixed transaction price gradually stabilized.” “The spot price has also increased significantly from December, and DRAM prices will rise from January this year. It was a situation where expectations were high.
In the market, it is believed that the price is rising as server companies, which are major buyers, have finished clearing their inventory and have recently increased their orders again. In addition, it was analyzed that the fall in DRAM prices at the end of last year is fueling a rise in prices that manufacturers are reducing facility investments and growing concerns about supply shortages.
An industry insider said, “The inventory adjustment of server customers continued until the fourth quarter of last year, and their inventory has been improving from the first half of this year.” As companies have started investing again and demand is increasing mainly from Chinese smartphone makers that are releasing 5G smartphones in earnest, DRAM prices are likely to increase in the future.”
Another official said, “As the demand for IT devices including smartphones is gradually becoming stronger, it is leading the price of DRAM to rise.” It can be seen in the sense that it has entered.”
DRAM manufacturers are also showing a positive outlook on the market. In a conference call held after the announcement of earnings last month, Samsung Electronics predicted that customer inventory adjustments in the server market will be completed this year and demand will increase due to the expansion of 5G infrastructure in mobile. In addition, it is observed that the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM will increase in the first half of this year, focusing on major applications.
SK Hynix also said in a conference call after the performance announcement at the end of last month, “This year’s 5G mobile product shipments will increase from 250 million to 500 million units.” Said.
Trend Force, which operates DRAM Exchange, also predicted that the average selling price of DRAM in the first quarter of this year would rise by up to 10% from the previous quarter as the demand for IT devices such as laptops is expected to continue to increase in the aftermath of Corona 19.
Due to this atmosphere, DRAM makers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are showing a positive outlook on this year’s performance. This is because DRAM has a high proportion of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. It is known that DRAM accounts for 50% of the semiconductor sales of Samsung Electronics and 80% of SK Hynix. Accordingly, in the market, Samsung Electronics’ annual operating profit increased by 30% from the previous year to KRW 46.67 trillion and SK Hynix’s annual operating profit was expected to be KRW 10 trillion.
An industry insider said, “In the memory market represented by DRAM and NAND flash, if semiconductor prices rise and companies’ performance improves, memory companies are taking a cycle in which supply surges and performance deteriorates by expanding investment.” Due to the drop in DRAM prices throughout the second half of the year, major DRAM manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have reduced their facility investment. Accordingly, concerns over supply shortages have increased and semiconductor prices are rising.”
“However, it is still difficult to determine whether the increase in DRAM prices will be temporary or will continue in the future.” “It can be seen that the market conditions are improving, but the super cycle like 2016-2018 when operating profit soared to 50% It seems difficult to come back,” he added.
Reporter Jang Yoomi [email protected]