​[금리에 널뛴 증시] What is your investment strategy after FOMC?

Stock markets are paying attention to what countermeasures the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will take at this Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due to the increased volatility in the stock market following the surge in US Treasury yields. In this regard, although the outlook for the stock market leadership is mixed, there is advice that it is necessary to pay attention to stocks with high earnings recovery or growth visibility in common.

Experts first predict that the Fed will not come up with a response to the recent surge in interest rates at this FOMC meeting.

“According to the Fed’s forward guidance, which has been changed since September last year, according to the Fed’s forward guidance, prices are important, but the level of achieving full employment and lowering the natural unemployment rate,” said Woo Hye-young, a researcher at Ebest Investment & Securities. “We will maintain a easing monetary policy until the face-to-face service industry and employment recover and the income growth rate of workers recovers stably,” he said.

He added, “The recent inflation is supply-driven inflation due to rising international oil prices and supply chain constraints, and this rise is still a short-term phenomena, so we do not expect the increased inflation to cause the Fed to change its stance.” .

SK Securities researcher Jae-yoon Lee also mentioned that there will be no immediate austerity several times before the’blackout’ period, where U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell could not speak on monetary policy, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented on the recent inflation. It is expected that there will be no major change at this FOMC meeting because of the statement that it is a temporary move.

“According to the Bloomberg consensus, about 75% of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in 2023,” said Lee. “If the Fed does not comment on aggressive policies at this meeting, interest rate volatility will increase. I can,” he said.

Kim Ji-yoon, a researcher at Daishin Securities, predicted that US President Joe Biden’s recent signing of an ultra-large economic stimulus bill worth $1.9 trillion (about 2,140 trillion won) on the 11th (local time) will result in a significant improvement in consumption. .

Researcher Kim said, “The strength of consumer consumer goods can continue until the first half of this year, when consumption improvement will expand.” However, if the market interest rates stabilize starting from this FOMC meeting, growth stocks that have undergone recent adjustments can rebound. “It is more likely that the circulating market between growth stocks and consumer economy will continue, rather than strong growth.”

Jeong Daun, a researcher at Ebest Investment & Securities, diagnosed that it was time to select stocks with earnings recovery among value stocks.

Researcher Jeong said, “The strength of value stocks is based on the valuation merit created by the Corona 19 shock, and at this point when the stock price has recovered sufficiently, it is necessary to confirm profit recovery.” It is because we believe that it may appear, but it is time to select stocks with high profit recovery or growth visibility.”