Sehun Oh 51% vs. Youngsun Park 37%… Ahn Cheol-soo 52% vs Park Young-sun 36% [재보선 D-16]

In a poll conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo five days before the 4/7 mayoral election by the mayor of Seoul, it was found that no matter which candidate Oh Se-hoon and Ahn Cheol-soo became the single candidate for the opposition party, Park Young-sun and the Democratic Party candidate were out of the margin of error.

In addition, after the alleged speculation in the new city of the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) employee was raised earlier this month, public sentiment has become clearer than the’state stability theory’. According to an opinion poll of the mayor of Busan, candidate Park Hyung-jun was 51.2%, ahead of Democratic Party candidate Kim Young-chun (28.6%) by a significant gap.

In a poll conducted by the mayor of Seoul on the 19th and 20th by the JoongAng Ilbo to a public opinion polling company Ipsos, the respondent who selected Ahn when asked who he would vote for, assuming a bilateral confrontation between Candidate Young-sun Park and Candidate Ahn, a single candidate for pan-optics. With 52.3%, it surpassed Candidate Park (35.6%) by 16.7 percentage points. In addition, in the bilateral confrontation between Candidate Park and Candidate Oh, a single candidate for pan-optics, Candidate Oh was 50.6%, ahead of Candidate Park (36.8%) by 13.8 percentage points. Both virtual confrontation gaps are outside the margin of error (±3.1% points).

In the survey conducted by JoongAng Ilbo to Ipsos on the 5th and 6th, the gap between Candidate Park (39.8%) and Candidate Ahn (47.3%) was 7.5%, and between Candidate Park (41.6%) and Candidate Oh (45.3%). The gap was 3.7 percentage points, but the gap widened further in two weeks.

If the opposition was unified by Ahn and the bilateral confrontation between Park Young-seon and Ahn Chul-soo was formed, 79.7% of the supporters of Oh replied that they would support Ahn during the three-way confrontation. On the other hand, if the opposition is unified with Candidate Oh, 64.9% of Ahn’s supporters will move to Candidate Oh during the three-way match. Park’s support base remained unchanged no matter who the opposition candidate was.

Political critic Eom Kyung-young, head of the Institute for Era and Spirit, said, “It is a result of showing that Ahn is superior to Candidate Oh in terms of mid-scalability. However, candidate Oh was also elected as a candidate for the power of the people, and the approval ratings are constantly rising.” .

In the three-way match, candidate Park was 32.9%, candidate Oh 32.3%, and candidate Ahn 23.2%. In the survey on the 5th and 6th, 35.8% Park, 24.2% Oh, and 26.4% Ahn showed that the supporters of the people’s strength are gathering around candidate Oh.

In fact, in a survey on the 5th and 6th, 60.3% of the people’s strength supporters said they would choose Oh and 32.6% of the people’s strength supporters in the three-way confrontation. He said he would shoot a candidate.

State stability 33% vs. regime judge 55%, 2 weeks before 38% vs 50%

After allegations of LH speculation were raised, the ruling of the regime’s judgment intensified. 55.3% of the respondents answered’I will pick an opposition candidate for government judgment’, 22.0 percentage points higher than that of’we will pick a ruling party candidate for national stability’ (33.3%). 11.5% of the respondents did not know. In the survey on the 5th and 6th, 49.9% of the government’s judgments were up, but in this survey, it rose 5.4 percentage points, while the opinions on state stability declined 4.8 percentage points from 38.1%. Analyzing by age, class, and region, people aged 60 and over (66.2%), housewives (64.0%), students (56.0%), self-employed (54.8%), and Gangnam-dong residents (62.7%), such as Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Gangdong-gu. The main choice was the theory of government judgment, while those in their 40s (47.2%) and blue-collar (45.7%) chose the theory of state stability. In the middle class, which was the weight of previous elections, 57.7% chose the theory of government judgment and 28.9% chose the theory of state stability.

Expectations for unification of opposition powers also rose with the theory of government judgment as a link. When asked about the possibility of unifying opposition candidates, 50.5% of the respondents said’there will be unified candidates’, 12.4 percentage points higher than those of’will not be unified’ (38.1%). Don’t know and no response was 11.4%. In the survey on the 5th and 6th, more respondents (47.1%) who said’will not be unified’ than’will be unified’ (37.7%), which was reversed.

The main variables for the Seoul Mayor’s by-election were the real estate policy pledge (23.0%) and the LH speculation suspicion (21.1%). It was followed by support for state administration (12.9%), unification of opposition rights (9.9%), sexual harassment incidents by the former mayor (7.0%), and the corona 19 quarantine situation (6.3%). 2.9% of respondents cited the resignation of former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-yeol as a variable.

Park’s supporters cited LH speculation suspicion (23.6%) and real estate policy pledges (18.2%) as the main variables of the election. Candidate Oh’s support for real estate policy (26.1%), LH speculation suspicion (19.4%), presidential administration support (18.7%), and Ahn’s support for real estate policy (24.7%), LH speculation suspicion (18.0%), etc. They answered that the unification of opposition rights (15.6%) was the main variable.

For President Moon Jae-in’s state administration, the negative evaluation rate was 60.3%, 23.4 percentage points higher than the positive evaluation rate 36.9%. The degree of support for political parties in Seoul was 30.0% for the Democratic Party, 28.7% for the People’s Strength, 8.3% for the People’s Party, 6.7% for the Justice Party, and 3.2% for the Open Democratic Party.

Reporter Kim Hyo-seong [email protected]