Chinese government targets 6% growth… US is also expected to contribute to global growth
▲ Joe Biden (left) then Vice President of the United States and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet and shake hands at a conference held in Beijing, China on December 4, 2013. Beijing/AP Yonhap News
With the implementation of a massive economic stimulus package by the US administration, Joe Biden predicted that the US economic growth rate could surpass China in 45 years.
According to CNN broadcast on the 12th (local time), Goldman Sachs predicted the US’s economic growth forecast this year at 6.9%. This is the highest number since 1984. Morgan Stanley’s forecast was 7.3%.
The Chinese government has suggested ‘6% or more’ as a target for this year’s growth rate. Even considering Refitinib’s forecast for China’s growth of 8.4%, there is a possibility that the US will surpass China’s economic growth rate, or at least be at a similar level.
According to World Bank (WB) statistics, China has recorded a higher economic growth rate than the United States since 1976. In particular, China’s economic growth rate in the 2010s immediately after the financial crisis was 10.6%, four times that of the United States, and in 2019, just before the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), the gap was three times. The narrowest gap between the two countries was in 1999, when the dot-com boom occurred, with the U.S. growing at 4.8% and China at 7.7%.
The market expects the United States to make the greatest contribution to global economic growth this year. Oxford Economics forecasts the contribution of the US to global economic growth this year at 1.7 percentage points and China at 1.6 percentage points, respectively. For the first time since 2005, the United States has made a higher contribution.
Supporting the optimism of US economic growth is the supply of vaccines and the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion (about 2153 trillion won) stimulus package for the Corona 19 economy. President Biden signed a bill containing stimulus packages on the 11th. Under the measure, Americans receive up to $1,400 in cash per adult. In addition, unemployment benefit payments of $300 per week will be extended until September 6, and $20 billion will be invested in COVID-19 vaccinations.
However, it is expected that the US will not continue to outperform China in its economic growth rate. Asia Pacific chief economist Alicia Garcia Erero Naticis predicted that “China’s potential growth rate is much higher than that of the United States, so it will be difficult for the United States to show higher economic growth rates after 2021.”