Yun Seok-yeol’s’Starry Moment’ was up to the Seoul Mayor’s election. Hankyoreh TV
Was the former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol caught the’star moment’? Yoon Seok-yeol, who resigned from the post of prosecutor general on the 4th, jumped to the top of the presidential election runners’ approval rating. In both public opinion polls released on Monday, the 8th, when former President Yoon Suk-yeol surpassed Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung to take the first place, the political circles were astonished. Now, has Yun Seok-yeol’s time begun? Is the sudden rise in approval rating bubble or is it real? What are the variables in the future?
Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol is leaving the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office in Seocho-gu, Seoul after expressing his gratitude on the afternoon of the 4th. President Moon Jae-in accepted Yoon’s appreciation within an hour. yunhap news
Was Yun Seok-yeol catching the’star moment’?
First, let’s take a look at the results of the two public opinion polls released on the 8th. In the’Presentation Candidate Preference’ survey conducted by Real Meter, Former President Yoon Suk-yeol gained 28.3%, surpassing Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung to rise to the top spot. Governor Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating was 22.4%, the gap between the two was 5.9 percentage points. This is of course within the margin of error, so there is no statistical significance. However, anyway, the political effect of surpassing Governor Lee Jae-myeong, who has been running at No. 1 since the beginning of this year, is clear. In another survey, the Korea Institute of Social Opinion Survey, Jeon Yoon ranked first with a 32.4% approval rating. In a survey from the same institution a month ago, the approval rate of former President Yun was 14.6%, which is more than doubled. Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung was 24.1%, and the former Democratic Party representative Lee Nak-yeon, who resigned on the 9th, was 14.9%. From the two opinion polls alone, it is likely that the passport is going to be a bilateral confrontation between Lee Jae-myeong and the opposition party Yoon Suk-yeol. Former President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval rating jumped in this way, and the media talks about it as a’convention effect’. As the resignation of the prosecutor general was interpreted as a political advancement, it is true that conservative voters who had been skeptical of whether or not Yun was running for the past lumped together. The original convention effect indicates that the moment a political party elects a candidate for president at the convention, the candidate’s approval rating temporarily soars. It basically means that there is a temporary bubble in the convention effect. Still, the advantage of the convention effect is that if you play a lot, you can maintain the approval rating to some extent even if you fall a little later. Yun Seok-yeol quickly jumped to the top spot, so it can be said that the resignation of the president was very effective. In the future, whether you join the people’s power or promote a third party, the moment you officially declare your entry into the political world, you will see the effect of the convention again. However, there is a good chance that the approval rating at that time will be far less than it is now.
On the 8th, in front of the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office in Seocho-gu, Seoul, garlands supporting former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol are lined up. yunhap news
Two things that Hoi-Chang Lee does, but Seok-yeol Yoon does not have
It’s just like comparing them on the same line, but when I look at former President Yoon Suk-yeol, I think of Lee Hoi-chang in the days of former President Kim Young-sam. In April 1994, Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang quit his post as prime minister after having a conflict with President Kim Young-sam on various issues. The next morning, the top title on the front page of all morning newspapers was’Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang resignation.’ It is similar to’Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol’s blitz resignation’ a few days ago. As the prime minister quit, Lee Hoi-chang’s image as the next presidential candidate was clearly imprinted and the approval rating soared to 35%. High-ranking officials fighting current power are in a good position to always win public support. Based on the approval rating, former Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang ran for the 1997 presidential election and the 2002 presidential election twice and lost by 1.6 percentage points and 2.3 percentage points respectively. I wasn’t able to become president at this level, but I can say that I succeeded in turning from prime minister to politician. Would that be the case with former president Seok-yeol Yoon? Could it be the second Hoi-Chang Lee? I once interviewed Lee Hoi-chang up close when he was in the 1997 presidential election. Mr. Hoi-Chang Lee has the’charisma’ that can take over the ruling party at the time. It seemed that it had its own’spirit of the times’ as well. As the nickname’the opposite side’ says, it is the people’s longing for a new clean politics that is completely different from the existing politics. Later, this cleanliness faded with the’Take Off Event’, but at least it was at that time. These are the backgrounds that maintained the approval ratings of Lee Hoi-chang, who quit the prime minister and jumped into politics. I have never met Yoon Seok-yeol. However, I personally question whether it has two elements, political charisma and spirit of the times. It does not fit with the trend of the times when the former prosecutor general says’protection of liberal democracy’. ‘Investigation of corruption without sanctuary’ is the biggest point of Yoon Seok-yeol. It was quite effective that former President Yoon Seok-yeol connected the alleged speculation of LH land with the prosecution’s ability to investigate corruption. Their strengths and recent circumstances match. But we have to see how long this can last. President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating is now rising and falling at the 40% level. That’s a pretty high number for a president who is entering his fifth year in office. The reason why the previous presidential approval ratings plummeted is because of corruption of close associates and relatives at the end of the regime. This includes President Kim Young-sam’s son Hyun-cheol, Kim Dae-jung’s three sons, President Roh Moo-hyun’s older brother Kunpyeong, Lee Myung-bak’s older brother Sang-deuk, and Park Geun-hye’s close friend Choi Sun-sil. Even in the current government, there are cases of one and another, but there are still no major corruptions of relatives or key close associates. Therefore, it is unknown how powerful the concept of’corruption investigation without sanctuary’ will exert a strong appeal to the public.
Two months before the presidential election, candidate Lee Hoi-chang rides around the venue on October 27, 1997 at the Olympic Park Gymnastics Stadium in Seoul. Reporter Kwak Yoon-seop
Advantages of Seok-Yeol Yoon over Hoi-Chang Lee
However, there is only one thing that former President Yoon Suk-yeol is very advantageous over President Lee Hoi-chang. There are still no visible competitors. From his initiation to politics, President Lee Hoi-chang has had to struggle with strong competitors. Congressman Park Chan-jong, former Gyeonggi Governor Lee In-je, former Prime Minister Lee Soo-sung, and former Deputy Prime Minister Cho Soon were competitors. They’re all people with tough public approval ratings. After winning this, President Lee Hoi-chang ran for the presidential election three times, so that’s great. However, the presidential election runner who has the popular support to compete with former President Yun is not very noticeable in the opposition right now. This is also the background of soaring to No. 1 in approval ratings as soon as he left the prosecutor general. Since Yoon Seok-yeol clearly indicated that he would do politics, the scattered opposition votes were gathered as one because there were no candidates for support. So, the approval rating of former President Yun is not going to fall sharply in a short period of time. This is because there are no alternative candidates to go out of there. It also means that Yoon Seok-yeol’s high approval rating is due to the sluggishness of others rather than his own strengths. They are both strengths and weaknesses. Anyway, in the opposition that was sluggish, one large runner was born, so the confidence that it is worth trying in the presidential election in March next year will increase. Good stock for the opposition party, and not so good for the ruling party. I believe that the reason why the ruling party was not able to respond well to the political development of former President Yoon Suk-yeol is as follows.
Power of the People Mayor Oh Se-hoon (left) and Candidate Ahn Chul-soo of the People’s Party shake hands at the 113th International Women’s Day celebration held at the Air Force Hotel in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul on the afternoon of the 8th. yunhap news
Former President Yoon Suk-yeol’s first trial is the Seoul Mayor’s by-election held on April 7th. Although former President Yun is not running directly, this election is a major opportunity to gauge the impact of Seok-Yeol Yoon. On the 8th, when Yoon Seok-yeol rose to the top of the approval rating, both opposition candidates Ahn Chul-soo and Oh Se-hoon, opposition candidates, beat Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon. Yoon Seok-yeol’s resignation brought the opposition supporters together and influenced the virtual confrontation of the mayor of Seoul. Even if Yun doesn’t directly play, if the opposition candidate is elected in the Seoul Mayor’s election, that will give the former president a wing. It confirms the political influence of Seok-Yeol Yoon, and the high approval rating will not easily fall out and will continue.
In addition, Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon is holding a meeting with teachers and parents in a park near Oryu Middle School in Guro-gu, Seoul on the morning of the 9th. Provided by Park Young-seon Candidate Camp
The result of the Seoul Mayor’s election is important because it is a’planet’ rather than a’star’
On the contrary, if Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon is elected mayor of Seoul, the approval rating of former President Yoon Suk-yeol will stop rising and immediately begin to sink. Public opinion about the government’s ruling party right now is not good. There are mixed suspicions of Yoon Seok-yeol’s resignation and LH land speculation. The more destructive of these is the real estate issue. If Yoon Seok-yeol’s resignation is a much bigger issue, the mayor of Seoul has an advantage over the opposition party, as the sensitive real estate problem has erupted. But the fact that candidate Park Young-seon is elected shows that the variable Seok-yeol Yoon is not unexpectedly large and that the ruling party of the government has dealt with the LH case relatively well. So, among the opposition supporters, expectations for Yoon Seok-yeol are bound to decline. Although it has not yet officially declared an initiation to politics, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the political future of former President Yoon Suk-yeol depends on the election of the mayor of Seoul. Therefore, there is a high possibility that Yoon will speak or act indirectly in support of the opposition candidate. Whether this will be medicine or poison will depend on the election results. Yoon Seok-yeol shakes the election of the mayor of Seoul, and the election of the mayor of Seoul has come to an end to a higher-order equation that shakes the presidential election in March next year. Former President Yun Suk-yeol is more like a’planet’ that shines in the light of others, rather than a’star’ like the sun that shines on its own. For the time being, the mayoral election in Seoul is more important than Seok-yeol Yoon, so let’s watch the election together.
Planning/Appearance Park Chan-soo Senior Editorial Fellow [email protected]
Director and editor So-young Cho PD [email protected]