[사진=게티이미지뱅크]
As the new coronavirus infectious disease (Corona 19) vaccine is spread and the global economy recovers faster than expected, a hot wind is blowing in the Korean economy.
In the Interim Economic Outlook released on the 9th, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted Korea’s growth rate this year to 3.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous December forecast.
The OECD predicted that Korea will achieve 3.1% growth in 2021 in its September forecast last year, but in December it lowered it by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8%. The reason why the OECD revised the growth rate forecast for Korea in three months is because it predicted that the global economy will recover faster than expected.
The OECD raised its global growth forecast to 5.6%, a 1.4 percentage point higher than the December forecast. The growth rate of the G20 countries increased by 6.2% (1.5% points up), the eurozone 3.9% (0.3% points), the US 6.5% (3.3% points), and India 12.6% (4.7% points), raising the growth rate forecast for most countries.
The OECD analyzed that “the global economic recovery is appearing faster than expected due to the spread of vaccines and the effect of additional financial support from the government.” did.
In addition, according to the OECD’s forecast, Korea, along with the United States, Turkey, and Australia, is one of four countries that are expected to recover to levels before the corona crisis this year. Among non-member countries, only China, India and Indonesia are predicted to recover to their pre-crisis levels.
An official from the Ministry of Equipment said, “The OECD’s 2021 growth rate forecast for Korea is the best level, exceeding that of major institutions published so far.” It seems to have been adjusted.”
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Global investment banks are also raising their forecasts for Korea’s growth rate this year. According to the International Finance Center, as of the end of February, the growth rate of Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) this year, as predicted by nine overseas investment banks, is an average of 3.6%. UBS projected the highest forecast at 4.1%, while Citi projected 3.3%.
The average of these investment banks’ growth rate forecasts was calculated at 3.3% as of the end of October last year, and then increased by 0.1 percentage points every month.
“As the global economic conditions improve, Korea seems to have raised its growth rate forecast, as exports and export-related facility investment have increased,” said Kyu-cheol Kyu-cheol, head of the economic outlook at the Korea Development Institute (KDI).
KDI predicted this year’s growth rate of 3.1%. In the March 2021 economic trend announced on the day, “Durable goods sales, mainly for passenger cars and home appliances, show a high increase, and some of the sluggish consumption caused by social distancing measures has been partially mitigated.” It has increased significantly, mainly in the semiconductor industry,” he analyzed.
Expectations for an economic recovery are rising, but uncertainty is still not resolved on the other hand. In particular, with the spread of vaccines and the spread of Corona 19 acting as up and down factors, respectively, private consumption is regarded as the most important factor that will determine growth this year. Consumption accounts for nearly half of GDP, including 48.5% in 2019 and 46.5% in 2020.
The reason why the Bank of Korea held the Financial Monetary Committee in February and maintained its growth rate forecast at 3.0% this year is because consumption growth is expected to be lower than expected due to the third spread of Corona 19. It was expected that the shrinking consumption would offset the effects of increased exports and investment.
The BOK raised its product export growth forecast by 1.8 percentage points to 7.1%, and the facility investment growth rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 5.3%, but lowered the private consumption growth rate by 1.1 percentage points to 2.0%.