Is carbon neutrality possible in the building sector in 2050? There is also skepticism, and most experts agree that it is difficult. However, there is a wide consensus that it must be promoted and that it is not impossible.
Since the 2000s, the international community has already cited climate change as a core global agenda, and has warned that humanity will face irreparable catastrophe if not responding to it. Now, about 20 years later, the international community’s demand that stronger measures are needed compared to the initial discussions on the level of climate change response means that humanity has not put enough effort into climate change.
Now, the international community has set carbon neutrality as a top priority in order to suppress the increase in global average temperature to within 1.5℃ by 2050 due to global climate change. Following the Kyoto Protocol, international agreements led to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change are accelerating each country’s response.
Europe has already implemented carbon neutrality to a large extent through the Green Deal, and the US, which withdrew from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, is accelerating carbon neutrality measures by declaring rejoining on the first day of President Joe Biden’s election. In particular, the introduction of the global carbon border tax has started counting. The EU has been discussing the carbon border tax (carbon tariff) imposed on imported products by moving the carbon border adjustment system scheduled for the second quarter of this year to the first quarter, the carbon tax imposed on domestic companies, and the expansion of the carbon credit trading system.
After experiencing the climate crisis due to the heatwave in 2018, typhoon in 2019, and rainy season in 2020, Korea also announced the Korea PanNew Deal to prepare an economic breakthrough according to the Corona 19 pandemic and respond to trade barriers in developed countries.
After the announcement of the policy that included the Korean version of the Green New Deal, the government took a step further and declared carbon neutral in 2050, and the National Assembly and local governments are responding to this through legislation, ordinances, and statements. As industry and academia also respond quickly, interest in carbon neutrality is rapidly increasing across the public, public, industrial, academic, and research fields.
The building sector has set a roadmap to expand the mandatory Zero Energy Building (ZEB) to the private sector in 2030, but concrete action plans are needed during the 20-year gap until carbon neutrality in 2050. In this plan, the current status of GHG reduction in the building sector and plans to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, which has been proposed as a long-term goal, in the building sector are explored.
Full-scale carbon neutralization, IPCC 1.5℃’Gauge’
The starting point of carbon neutrality is the’Global Warming 1.5℃ Special Report’ released in October 2018 by the’Intergovernmental Council on Climate Change (IPCC)’. The report announced that the global average temperature rose by about 1℃ in 2017 compared to the 1850s~1900s, and that there was a trend of temperature increase of 0.2℃ per 10 years. According to this trend, it is highly likely to reach the goal of the Paris Agreement of 1.5℃ between 2030 and 2052.
Here, the scenario for CO₂ emission to achieve the 1.5℃ target is to reduce at least 45% from 2010 to 2030 and achieve Net Zero by 2050.
Renewable energy should account for 70-85% of power consumption in 2050, and the proportion of electricity in the building sector’s energy demand should increase to 55-75%. Carbon capture and storage facilities must be installed for the rest of the generation, not renewable energy.
Eun-Seok Lee, head of the Green Architecture Center at the Institute of Architectural Space Research (AURI), said, “To be carbon neutral, all existing fossil fuel-based infrastructures must be transformed in an innovative manner, so a complete improvement is necessary. It’s a difficult problem like it should be.”
Carbon Neutral Report Card’Insufficient’
President Moon Jae-in declared carbon neutrality in 2050 in a public address in the National Assembly in October last year, and announced that he would pursue an investment of 8 trillion won in the 2021 Green New Deal. In addition, it announced that it would raise the national GHG reduction targets in 2030 before 2025 through a speech at the ‘2050 Carbon Neutral Cross-Ministry Strategy Meeting’ in November.
Major policies related to carbon neutrality in Korea include △Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan △Korean Version Green New Deal △The 9th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand △2050 Long-Term Low Carbon Power Generation Strategy (LEDS) △National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target (NDC).
The ‘2050 Carbon Neutral Roadmap’ is being established by the Ministry of Environment, and the building section is in charge of the Future Strategy Jobs Office, the main department of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport formed a separate expert advisory group, the’National Transport 2050 Carbon-neutral Private-Public Joint Task Force (TF)’ and initiated a procedure to establish a specific implementation strategy by the end of the year.
Korea’s GHG reduction performance in the building sector has not been good so far, but the possibility is visible recently. According to the performance of GHG reduction by country and sector, the average national GHG emissions from 2018 to 2019 was 7115.2 million tons, exceeding the average goal of 2018 to 2020, 699.9 million tons, by 3.5% (24.4 million tons). The building sector also exceeded the target by 7.3 million tons. However, the amount of emissions in the building sector in 2019 was 147.7 million tons, a decrease of 1,06 million tons from 158.3 million tons in 2018.
But the goal is still far. In order to reduce the current average emissions to 132.7 million tons, which is the roadmap for 2030, emissions must be reduced by an annual average of 1.3% for 11 years from 2019 to 2030. Considering the annual average increase of 1.2% from 2008 to 2019, it is time to take special measures to achieve the target.
Residential, highest energy consumption rate
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, △National Building Status Statistics △Building Energy Usage Statistics, as of 2019, domestic buildings amounted to about 7.24 million dong, 47.1% for residential use, 21.8% for commercial use, and 14.1% for industrial use.
The total energy consumption of buildings was 3,3155,000TOE, and residential buildings such as apartment houses (41.7%) and detached houses (16.6%) accounted for about 60% of the total, while non-residential uses neighborhood living facilities (15.2%) and business facilities (5.9%). ), followed by educational and research facilities (5.1%).
By energy source, in the case of residential building energy sources, city gas accounts for more than half (53%) of the total, followed by electricity (37%) and district heating (10%). Non-residential use accounts for the largest electricity share (72%), followed by city gas (25%) and district heating (2%).
In terms of per unit area, the use per unit area (median value) of medical facilities that use a lot of equipment and devices is the highest at 239 kWh/㎡, and educational research facilities including educational institutions (elementary, middle, high school, and university) operated on a semester basis are 85 kWh. It was the lowest at /㎡.
According to LEDS released last year, the building sector accounts for 7% of Korea’s total greenhouse gas emissions as of 2017, and increases to 24% when indirect emissions (electricity and heat use) are included. As for the emission trend, the emission proportion of commercial and public buildings gradually increases, while the emission proportion of residential buildings decreases.
In particular, in the building sector, indirect emissions increased significantly. Direct emissions (construction equipment, etc.) decreased by 25% from 1990, but indirect emissions increased by 8.8 times.
Looking at the performance indicators for GHG reduction in 2019, the building sector includes △Eco-friendly housing supply (achievement rate 106%) △Number of ZEB certifications (117%) △Green remodeling business performance (100%) △Carbon point system participating households (100%) △AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) Achievement of quantitative indicators such as supply (50%).
Other qualitative indicators include △Zeb (private) expansion △Enhancement of energy performance Establishment of mid-to-long-term plans to promote urban regeneration and green remodeling (included in the Green New Deal) △Development of operational efficiency indicators by building use (target for application to commercial buildings in 2024) △Top runner There are initiatives (expanding the supply of high-efficiency equipment), and the spread of high-efficiency lighting equipment (targeting to remove fluorescent lamps in 2027).
The government’s vision for carbon neutrality in the building sector in 2050 is similar to these recent goals. △Regulations for ZEB staged mandate for new buildings △Incentives for activating green remodeling of existing buildings △Supply of low-carbon energy sources such as geothermal, hydrothermal, and unused △Supply of high-efficiency home appliances and LED lighting devices △Supply of smart energy management systems such as BEMS and AMI. To this end, the direction was set with strategies such as △financial support for the spread of green buildings, △building energy big data construction △creating a smart city.
Telephony trend’consensus’
Experts pointed to electrification as a key trend in the building sector in the process of promoting carbon neutrality.
Deok-joon Park, head of the KCL Building Energy New Business TF Team, said, “It is not a complete phone call for all buildings due to the question of when the target will be implemented and from what year. Although there have been attempts, power facilities such as heat pumps will spread rapidly.”
Lee Eun-seok, head of the AURI Center, said, “As most of the energy sources are used as cooling and heat sources, the energy demand of buildings will be reorganized to the power center. As a result, the key to continuing low-carbonization of energy generation sources that produce these electricity is the key.” .
“In order to achieve carbon neutrality in the building sector, passive technology to reduce the heating and cooling load by strengthening insulation and airtightness, and to electrification in which an efficient heat pump replaces a fossil fuel-burning boiler or absorption chiller and hot water,” said Yoo Won University Vice President Jang Han Technology. ), and technologies such as Intelligent Efficiency using BEMS·IoT·AI must be secured.”
All-round convergence trend
Convergence is also a major trend. The new construction industry for carbon neutrality has focused on improving the performance of passive and active elements so far, but in the future, they will create synergies by converging and overcoming issues such as limitations of existing performance and efficiency improvement, space limitations, and deterioration of acceptability. It is expected to be possible.
Such convergence is expected to be achieved through various combinations of materials, facilities, and new and renewable energy. Research related to this is being conducted simultaneously.
As an example of fusion of materials and new and renewable energy, BIPV, in which walls, windows and solar panels are fused, has a number of application sites, and BIPVT with solar heat added to it, or color BIPV that can improve water solubility through aesthetic enhancement. Etc. are being developed by small and medium-sized companies.
An exterior material system that can assemble various materials, facilities, and new and renewable energy according to the situation is also being developed. The Korea Institute of Construction Technology (KICT) has developed △active awning and curtain wall packaging △vibration reduction, window, film, condensation prevention, lighting load, insulation, and other performance exterior materials and equipment convergence through’smart exterior material and facility convergence technology development’. New materials △ Intelligent heat supply and PCM fusion heat exchange system △ BIPV ventilation structure △ Vertical window technology for fire safety, exhaust smoke, ventilation △ Heat production, PC interrupted heat technology △ Heat pump hybrid facility technology △ Energy harvesting exterior material system.
Choi Kyung-seok, head of KICT’s Architectural Information Technology Research Center, said, “For carbon neutrality, we will develop technologies that combine passive and active element technologies and converge them.” We will be able to contribute to the creation of this.”
Korea University’s Plus Energy Building (PEB) Innovation Technology Research Center is also researching passive, active, and renewable energy convergence. It reduces energy by applying passive design technology and utilizes solar energy, heat, LNG grid-based fuel cell, absorption heat storage through ionic liquid, and mixed heat storage for both heating and cooling.
Professor Kang Yong-tae of Korea University said, “We aim to develop core technologies such as renewable energy production and conversion, high-density energy storage and utilization, active optimization, and passive source reduction, and combine them to produce 20% more energy than the amount consumed. “We are conducting research with it.”
‘Smartization’, building load reduction and consumption optimization
Smartization is a concept that more organically connects facilities, devices, and materials through more precise control on the extension of convergence and improves efficiency. As sensors become more precise and inexpensive and their performance increases, the foundation for this is being laid.
If the existing building system was an installation-oriented high-cost structure system, in the future, precise measurement and diagnosis will prevent overdesign, and energy efficiency will be improved through precise control.
Reflecting this direction, this year’s Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation ‘2021 Energy Technology Development Project Energy Demand Management Core Technology Development’ announced a number of new tasks in the BEMS field. In particular, in order to create a data infrastructure, which is the core of optimal control, it is expected to become the basis for various business models to emerge by disclosing energy-related big data to the private sector through a public platform.
If enough big data is accumulated, deep learning AI can be used. Currently, building control and management are performed by experts and intuitively based on the data from the system, but AI is of great value in order to enable more sophisticated control. Although it is still at a low stage, large companies such as SKT and Metanet Daewoo, as well as EMS SMEs, are actively researching to apply AI to solutions.
This trend is expected to contribute to a role in mitigating the impact as the denominator can be lowered if a plan to incorporate plug loads into the load calculation in addition to the five major loads such as heating and cooling, lighting, and ventilation in the future is promoted.
Carbon neutral premise’water solubility’
After all, it is the user who accepts such advanced technology. If users do not accept it, no matter how good the technology can be, it will not be possible to achieve carbon neutrality. Accordingly, experts emphasize that regulatory-oriented policies are difficult to succeed and that individual citizens should voluntarily participate.
Team leader Park Deok-joon said, “If the people stay in the prisoners of the regulation, they will not be able to go to carbon neutrality,” he said. “As the people need to sympathize with health, comfort, and benefits, we need to secure acceptance.”
In fact, in the case of green remodeling, it is necessary to keep pace with the speed of technology acceptance by the people, considering that there are many cases for comfort and health rather than for improving energy performance of buildings and responding to climate change. To this end, it is important to establish a system and system to verify the effectiveness of technology and to intuitively recognize the value.
“The current building energy efficiency level is reflected in the building ledger and disclosed to the private sector, but it is difficult for the general public to judge the specific value of the energy performance level that the corresponding class means.” It is necessary to prepare an intuitive and everyday type of certification system in a form that allows people to know whether they are consuming.”
In addition, it is necessary to establish a test and inspection system that can guarantee performance to users by quantitatively evaluating systems with different energy sources and functions in consideration of the situation in which various technologies are converged. Accordingly, KCL is promoting the development of a space unit energy and environmental performance evaluation test device with a variable installation structure. We plan to establish a system that allows various types of materials and equipment systems to be attached and detached, tested for each fragrance, and evaluated based on standardized standards.
Building sector, city-level’Net Zero’ should be considered
The application conditions of these technical factors may vary depending on the situation of individual buildings. Taking this into account, urban-level carbon neutrality measures should also be considered. The efficiency of solar panels decreases due to the shading phenomenon caused by high-rise buildings. Buildings that have insufficient area to apply new and renewable energy compared to their energy load, such as high-rise buildings, need to secure off-site buildings and spaces or establish a system that can trade surplus energy by applying the concept of a virtual power plant (VPP). do.
Professor Yong-Tae Kang said, “The reason for expansion to PEB is not to be a single building, but to drastically reduce the energy load of the city as a whole.” “Since all buildings in the city cannot achieve 100% energy independence, the surplus produced by PEB “We can send new and renewable energy to the grid so that we can trade with other buildings.”
In addition, it is pointed out that in order to achieve net zero carbon emission, it is necessary to consider the sink in the city, which has not been considered. Korea has been focusing on policies and projects to control the source. Institutional devices such as ZEB to increase efficiency or optimize the source itself are equipped with a system.
However, there is no information on sinks in the city center. The reason why the urban category should be approached for carbon neutrality in the building sector is that carbon emissions can be offset by reflecting the sinking sources such as park green spaces, roof gardens, and forest gardens.
Center Director Lee Eun-seok said, “We have not been able to link the landscape with the value as a sink until now, but fortunately, Korea has been implementing the Park Green Area Act from a long time ago, and the roof garden system is in operation, so green space in the city is good.” “Adding the concept of a water source In order to do so, it is necessary to study how much carbon can be absorbed by green infrastructure such as domestic forests, cities, and parks.”
‘Carbon Neutral’, a goal that cannot fail
There is great concern over the feasibility of the need for carbon neutrality in 2050. However, experts agree that carbon neutrality is a task that should not be failed as it warns of all-round damages such as society, economy, and environment caused by a rise in global average temperature.
It is a mid- to long-term plan after 30 years, but given the difficulty of the goal, the urgency is high. The IPCC has come up with a scenario in which the 1.5℃ target can be satisfied by reducing 45% compared to the 2010s by 2030 right away. In contrast, the reduction target in Korea is only 24.4% by 2030 compared to the 2017s. It is paying attention to whether carbon neutrality can be achieved in 2050 through national and national responses in the future.