Jaebosun D-30 JoongAng Ilbo poll
In a poll conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo about a month before the Seoul Mayor’s by-election on April 7, it was found that no matter which of the opposition candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Oh Se-hoon are unified, they also beat Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon. On the other hand, if a three-party confrontation unfolds due to the unification of the opposition, Democratic Party candidate Park appears to be ahead of the opposition candidate.
Seoul Mayor Candidate Bilateral Confrontation
47 An vs 40% Night… Oh 45 vs Night 42%
When meeting 3 people, 36 Parks An 26 Oh 24%
Seoul Mayor’s opinion poll bilateral confrontation. Graphic = Reporter Park Kyung-min [email protected]
The JoongAng Ilbo commissioned a polling company Ipsos to interview 1004 men and women aged 18 or older living in Seoul on the 5th and 6th. When asked whether to choose a single candidate for pan-passport Park Young-sun vs. Ahn Cheol-soo, a single candidate for pan-optics, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo was 47.3%, ahead of Park’s (39.8%) by 7.5 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error (±3.1%). In addition, in the confrontation between Park Young-sun, a single candidate for pan-passport and Oh Se-hoon, a single candidate for pan-optics, candidate Oh Se-hoon earned 45.3%, surpassing Candidate Park (41.6%) by 3.7 percentage points within the margin of error.
Seoul mayor public opinion poll three-way confrontation. Graphic = Reporter Park Kyung-min [email protected]
By age, in the bilateral confrontation between Park Young-sun and Ahn Chul-soo, Park won 57.8% versus 30.9% only in their 40s. In all other age groups, Ahn took the lead. In particular, Ahn was 8.2 percentage points ahead of Ahn’s 50.9% and Park Young-seon 42.2% in his 50s, who served as a casting boat in the recent national election. Even in his 30s, which was evaluated as having a high propensity to progress, Ahn was 44.3%, slightly ahead of Park (39.2%) by 5.1 percentage points.
Candidate Oh was also similar. In his 40s, it was 59.9% vs. 29.2%, far behind Park’s, but in the rest of the ages, it was ahead of Park’s all.
Is it a regime judgment or a stable state of affairs? Graphic = Reporter Jaemin Shin [email protected]
This was a temperature difference from public opinion polls after mid-February, when Park overwhelmed the opposition candidate in his 40s, a key supporter of the ruling party, and showed a tendency to dominate in his 50s. This poll was conducted shortly after the resignation of former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-yeol (4th), as suspicion of illegal speculation in the 3rd new city by employees of the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) spread over time. In a call with the JoongAng Ilbo, the representative of the polling company STI Lee Jun-ho said, “The allegations of LH land speculation are a bad thing for the government and the ruling party, where the way out is currently difficult to see.” I will try to judge the policy by vote.”
On the other hand, in the three-way matchup, Democratic Party candidate Park took the lead with 35.8%, followed by Ahn (26.4%) and Oh (24.2%).
“Opposition will be unified” 38% “No” 47% Party support 32% Democratic Party power 25%
The biggest variable in the Seoul Mayor’s election. Graphic = Reporter Jaemin Shin [email protected]
Candidate Park received high support mainly from 40s (55.1%), white-collar (42.7%), and liberal (67.6%). Women (38.7%) showed higher preference than men (32.8%). On the other hand, candidate Ahn’s male (30.2%) popularity outpaced females (22.9%), and was popular among young people in their 30s and younger. Candidate Oh responded well by those in their 60s or older (39.4%) and conservatives (43.1%).
As a result of an opinion poll stating that the opposition candidates will lead when the opposition parties unfold like this, it is expected that whether or not the opposition will be unified will be a key variable in determining the victory or defeat of the Seoul mayoral by-election in the future.
Willingness to vote for the mayor of Seoul. Graphic = Reporter Jaemin Shin [email protected]
However, there was more negative public opinion about the possibility of unifying Ahn Cheol-soo and Oh Se-hoon that it was difficult to achieve. When asked about the possibility of unification of opposition candidates, 37.7% of respondents answered’will be unified’, less than 47.1% of respondents saying’it will not be unified’. ‘Don’t know, no response’ was 15.2%. Women (48.2%) answered that’it will not be unified’ was higher in women (48.2%) than men (46.0%), and only 33.7% of women answered that’it will become unified’.
63.9% of those who answered themselves as supporters of the Democratic Party answered that’it will not be unified’, and among the people’s supporters,’unification will be’ 59.3% and’ununification will not be’ 29.4%. In addition, the younger the age, the greater the negative view of the possibility of unifying the opposition. The percentage of respondents saying’it will not be unified’ exceeded half of those in their 30s (56.3%), 30s (53.8%), and 40s (52.3%), and others in their 50s (40.9%) and 60s or older ( 36.7%).
Meanwhile, the negative evaluation rate (53.3%) of President Moon Jae-in’s state administration was 10.7 percentage points higher than the positive evaluation (42.6%). Party support was found in the order of 31.7% for the Democratic Party, 25.3% for the People’s Power, 7.1% for the People’s Party, and 6.0% for the Justice Party.
Reporters Saerom Sim and Gukhee Son [email protected]
