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It is predicted that the retail price of leek onions, which is on the rise, will peak and fall within a week or two. It is expected that prices will stabilize as the weather clears and imports come out. It is predicted that the prices of both leek onions will drop by 20-30% in one month and to 40% in two months.
According to’Palm Air Hankyung’, an artificial intelligence (AI)-based price prediction system developed by Farm Air, an agricultural product price analysis and prediction company on the 7th, and the Korea Economic Daily, the price of green onions in the nationwide wholesale market peaked at 5492 won per kg on the 23rd of last month. It is taking and is falling. Farm Air Hankyung analyzes and predicts agricultural product prices in kilograms based on price trends of 22 items sold in the nationwide wholesale market, historical production data, import and export information, exchange rate and weather information.
Last week, the price of green onions was close to 7,000 won per unit at a hypermarket. In small and medium-sized marts and markets, there were places that exceeded 8,000 won. Compared to the 2000 won range in the same period last year, it has increased 3 to 4 times. A Palm Air official said, “The price of green onions peaked on the 23rd of last month in the wholesale market (5492 won) and has fallen below 5,000 won.” “In the retail market, the price will start to fall in earnest from the middle of this month and at the end of this month at the latest. I said.
Farm Air and Hankyung’s Korea Agricultural Product Price Index (KAPI), which calculates the transaction prices of 22 items in the nationwide wholesale market in real time, also rose right after the Lunar New Year holiday, but dropped 20.9% after a month to 140, and two months later. It is predicted to record 133, a drop of 24.8%.
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The prices of green onions and onions are high. Last weekend, the price of a single leek at a hypermarket was close to 7,000 won. It has been 5 years since 2018 that a single green onion has exceeded 6,000 won. Onion prices are also rising. The retail price of 1kg of onions, which was less than 2,000 won in the same period last year, rose more than 40% to 3500 won this year.
As the price of agricultural products, which I thought would be caught after the Lunar New Year holiday, continued to rise in March, sighs came out everywhere. Young-sook Jang (47), who runs a meat restaurant in Mapo-gu, Seoul, said, “The price of green onions, lettuce, and onions as standard side dishes is so high that I would rather offer more meat as a service whenever additional orders are received.” When will the silver break?” he asked.
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The reasons for the soaring prices of agricultural products such as leeks and onions are complex. On the 7th, the price of green onions at wholesale markets nationwide was 4890 won per kg, up 20.2% from a month ago (4067 won) and 580% from a year ago (719 won). Last year, agricultural products were damaged by a long rainy season and heavy rain, so prices remained higher than normal.
Last year alone, Korean leeks showed little increase compared to other agricultural products. Last year, the highest price per kilogram was only 2792 won. The downturn in the dining out economy has led to a decrease in demand and an increase in supply. For this reason, farmers planted other crops instead of leeks.
According to the Rural Economic Research Institute, the area of green onion cultivation in February decreased by 37% compared to the same month last year. The harvest was not good at the end of last year and early this year due to bad weather. In addition, the price has reversed as demand for group meals such as the opening of school began in March. Onions are in a similar situation. From May to September last year, onions at the wholesale market did not exceed 1,000 won per kilogram, but soared to 1,800 won last month.
As the prices of green onions soared, sales of small green onions and frozen green onions surged. In Market Curly, sales of’one meal leek’ in January-February increased 279% compared to the same period of the previous year, and frozen leek sales increased 57%. This is in contrast to the 30% decrease in sales of general leeks.
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According to’Farm Air Hankyung’, the nation’s first big data and artificial intelligence (AI)-based agricultural product price prediction system, the price of green onions next month fell 32.6% to 3293 won, and after two months it was expected to drop 41% to 2839 won. It is still high compared to the end of May last year (1,156 won), but it is analyzed that the price will be significantly lower than the current price.
The Rural Economic Research Institute also predicted that the price of green onions would fall more than it is now. According to the March Agricultural Observation Report, the area of cultivation of spring onions is expected to increase by 6.6% from the previous year. As the prices of green onions and onions rose, more farmers were willing to grow two crops.
Onions are also expected to lead the decline in overall prices. Onions are currently trading at 1642 won per kg. It is expected to drop 77.8% to 363 won on May 31st. It is analyzed that the increase in onion imports will have a full-fledged impact in 2Q. According to the Korea Customs Service, onion imports last month were 9791 tons, up 544% from the same month last year (1519 tons). This is because private distributors have increased imports significantly as onion prices have risen.
Other crops are also on the decline. In three months, sweet potatoes are expected to fall 41% from the current market price (2863 won per kg) to 1687 won (May 31), and cucumbers to 917 won, down 73%. Major crops, such as grapes, cabbages, lettuces, garlic, lettuces, and paprika, are also expected to turn downward in earnest from the end of this month.
It seems that the price of eggs and meat will not be caught for the time being
Prices of major agricultural products will continue to stabilize from the end of May, but the inflationary factors appear to remain unstable. Among livestock products, it is predicted that the consumer price of one egg (30 pieces) will remain at around 7,000 won by the end of this year. The Agricultural Observation Headquarters of the Agricultural Competition predicted that 21.8% of the total number of laying hens killed due to the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) reached an average of 37 million to 38 million per day, down 16 to 18 percent from the previous year. It is expected that the number of breeding horses over 6 months old that can produce eggs will not recover to normal levels until September.
The number of Korean beef and pigs slaughtered this year is expected to increase by 8.9% and 1.2%, respectively, compared to the previous year. This year, 830,000-84 million Korean cattle and 17683,000 pigs are slaughtered. There are many predictions that prices will not drop significantly, in line with the increase in consumption caused by Corona 19.
Reporter Bora Kim/Jongpil Park [email protected]