Where the volatility increased
2970 lines with a 60-day moving average
If it collapses, it could be pushed to 2750.
The stock price plummeted due to the biggest sell-off by foreigners. The KOSPI index ended at 3012.95, down 2.80% on the 26th. Individuals net bought KOSPI KOSDAQ over 4 trillion won, but it wasn’t enough to get sales from foreigners and institutions. The photo is a dealing room at Hana Bank in Myeong-dong, Seoul. Reporter Huh Moon-chan [email protected]
The KOSPI index was pushed back to the 3000 line. Experts predict that the stock market in March following the end of February will also show high volatility, up and down by nearly 100 points a day, affected by the US and China. However, brokerage firms believe that the uptrend has not stopped. It is recommended that at such times, attention should be paid to earnings improvement stocks.
Powell’s remarks that’were off’?
On the 26th, the KOSPI ended at 3012.95, down 2.8%. This is due to the plunge in the US stock market the day before. The KOSDAQ closed the deal at 913.94, down 2.38%. Stock markets in major Asian countries such as the Nikkei 225 Index (-3.99%), the Shanghai Composite Index (-2.12%) and the Hang Seng Index (-3.45%) also fell at the same time.
Although Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Central Bank (Fed), suggested the timing of austerity after three years, the surge in market interest rates increased investor anxiety.
Nevertheless, brokerage firms are suggesting that the uptrend is alive. This is because listed companies’ earnings forecasts are rising and real interest rates are around 0%. Lee Eun-taek, head of the investment strategy team at KB Securities, said, “The recent adjustments are occurring due to concerns over tightening, which is due to the economy being so good,” and “the stock market is highly likely to rebound in March.”
Other securities firms are also putting weight on temporary adjustments. I heard that Hana Financial Investment is based on the continuing liquidity market. Samsung Securities emphasized that the central banks of major countries adhere to the expanding monetary policy. Foreign experts have similar opinions. As a result of a survey of 115 experts by Reuters in the United States, 70% predicted that the upward trend will continue for more than six months.
What is the forecast for the KOSPI for March?
Experts believe that the KOSPI is unlikely to drop significantly, but it is also unlikely that it will go straight up through the period adjustment. This is because concerns about a surge in interest rates have not completely disappeared, and there is no good news to change the trend. Most of them expected a box ticket around the 3000 line. Kim Seung-hyun, head of the Research Center at Yuanta Securities, predicted, “Because there is an expectation for earnings improvement, it is unlikely that the KOSPI will turn downward in the first quarter.
Samsung Securities expects the KOSPI band to be 2950~3200 next month. It recommended a strategy to increase the weight at the beginning of 3000 and increase cash when it reaches 3200. As for technical analysis, it is an analysis that it is important to observe the 2970 line. There is a 60-day moving average around 2970. The 60-day line, which is one quarter based on the trading day, is called the’value line’. Jeong In-ji, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, predicted, “If it deviates from this line, it can fall to the 2750 line.”
“Variability will increase”
All experts agree that volatility will be high. In particular, it is sharply falling due to the issue of rising interest rates in the US and the movement of the People’s Bank of China to recover liquidity.
For this reason, it is an advice to keep an eye on the US and China next month. In particular, the two Chinese conferences held on the 5th of next month could affect the stock market. It is predicted that economic stimulus measures worth 25 trillion yuan may be passed in both meetings.
If stimulus measures are passed in both cases, expectations for an economic recovery will re-emerge and the stock market may turn to strong. However, “in the opposite case, disappointing sales may come out,” analyzed SK Securities.
It is analyzed that the more uncertain, the more promising earnings improvement stocks will be. Securities companies emphasized investing in stocks with earnings momentum that are less affected by market fluctuations.
Yuanta Securities ranked contact stocks such as Shinsegae, Korean Air, and Hotel Shilla as top picks. This is because even if the market plunges, it can maintain an uptrend with the recovery of Corona 19. Duty-free shops and airlines are forecast to continue to recover their earnings until next year when overseas travel resumes.
Samsung Securities recommended semiconductors and automobiles that led earnings growth. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor Company, and Samsung SDI are representative. I thought that LG H&H would also be promising. Korea Investment & Securities recommended Hankook Tire & Technology and DGB Financial Group.
Hana Financial Investment positively evaluated companies that can respond to inflation. Hana Geumtu selected LG Display, S-Oil, SK Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, and E-Mart as stocks that satisfy the conditions.
Reporter Park Uimyung [email protected]