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| Iran’s top leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Hamenei said in a speech to air force commanders in Tehran on the 7th (local time) ahead of the 42nd anniversary of the Iranian Revolution: “If the United States wants to return to Iran’s nuclear agreement obligations, the United States must first lift sanctions completely. © AFP=News1 © News1 Reporter Dongmyeong Woo |
The tug-of-war over the’nuclear agreement’ (JCPOA, Comprehensive Joint Action Plan) between the United States and Iran has seldom found contact points. The U.S.’compliance with the terms of a nuclear agreement’ and Iran’s claim of’removing sanctions’ are in a tight confrontation. US President Joe Biden, who has been referring to the restoration of relations with Iran even before taking office, is on the test of diplomatic power.
◇How did the nuclear agreement flow=The nuclear agreement over Iran was concluded in July 2015 between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (US, China, Russia, Britain, and France) and Germany. The gist of the agreement is that instead of restricting nuclear development, Iran would lift the international economic sanctions against Iran as a reward.
However, this was catastrophic in May 2018 when former US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and resumed massive economic sanctions against Iran. Former President Trump made the background that he would withdraw from the existing agreement to reach a new agreement to halt the development of a permanent nuclear and missile program.
As the US power changes, Iran’s pressure on the US to restore a nuclear agreement is intensifying.
According to Reuters on the 23rd, Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Hamenei, said, “I will never succumb to US pressure. If necessary, I will enrich uranium to 60% purity.” This is a figure that far exceeds the purity of 3.67% limited by the nuclear agreement with the international community.
Earlier, in December last year, when President Biden’s election was confirmed, Iran passed a law that mandated further increase in uranium enrichment if US economic sanctions were not eased, and eventually resumed enriching uranium with 20% purity in January this year. This time, I raised that number again.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently declared that it would suspend implementation of the Additional Protocol, which is based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s nuclear inspection, unless the parties to the nuclear agreement lift economic sanctions by the 21st (local time).
Accordingly, IAEA Secretary-General Rafael Grossey visited Iran from the 20th to the 21st, and signed a provisional agreement to allow visits to nuclear facilities for three months even if voluntary transparency measures (allowing unannounced inspections) were halted. State.
◇The EU has been launched, but the progress of the discussion remains unknown=Iran is demanding an unconditional return as the United States unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, but the United States is in a position that economic sanctions are possible only if Iran adheres to the existing agreement obligations. There are also voices in the United States that a new agreement is needed to deal with Iran’s missile development issue, as President Trump argued.
In the end, there is a prospect that Iran, which should ease economic sanctions, will accept the US request. According to CNBC, Richard Goldberg, senior advisor to the US think tank Democracy and Defense Foundation (FDD), said, “I think Iran needs money and that’s why it is ultimately possible to trade.”
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was last in 2017. “Iran clearly needs access to money and, accordingly, sanctions easing,” Goldberg repeatedly added, “and wants to push the crisis out with some kind of talks involving sanctions.”
In the meantime, as the European Union (EU), which considers the nuclear agreement meaningfully, acts as a mediator, attention is being paid to whether this issue can actually make progress. Earlier, senior EU foreign affairs and security policy representative Joseph Borrell proposed an informal talk on the nuclear agreement, and Iran has said it will respond.
US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln also said at a disarmament conference held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 22nd, “Working with allies and partners to expand and strengthen the nuclear agreement to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, Iran’s unstable behavior and the development and spread of ballistic missiles, etc. We will also address other issues of concern.”
However, there are few observations that progress in the discussion will still be difficult. Ahead of the June presidential election in Iran, the voices of the hard-liners are rising, such as that the return of the US dialogue itself is meaningless, and pro-Israeli Democrats in the US House of Representatives are rebelling against the return of the original agreement.
Negotiations with Iran’s enemies in the Middle East, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (EU), are another challenge.
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| US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln. © AFP=News1 © News1 Reporter Dongmyeong Woo |
◇It seems to be applied intact to the North Korean nuclear program=On the other hand, the issue of nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran can be applied to the North Korean nuclear issue, so it is an issue that attracts more attention from South Korea’s position.
“We are still focusing on the denuclearization of North Korea,” Blincoln said at the disarmament meeting on the 22nd. “We will work closely with allies and partners to cope with North Korea’s illegal weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.”
Biden’s administration is in a position to fully review North Korea policy, and is trying to cope with the North Korean problem after first uniting forces with US allies.
This is interpreted not as a “top-down method” centered on the North American summit promoted by the Trump administration, but rather to listen closely to the opinions of allies and implement policy toward North Korea. It is also read in the sense that future negotiations with the US will not be easy.
At this meeting, German Foreign Minister Heiko Mas criticized that “North Korea violated the NPT and later withdrew, and is continuing to strengthen the banned nuclear and missile programs.” Argued that a complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles in the United States should be achieved.