[국정농담] The Wen Government, China’s consciousness, the US’anti-China solidarity’ escapes alone

■Kyung-Hwan Yoon’s Joke on State Affairs (國政濃談)

58 countries fall into ‘declaration of condemnation of detention for foreigners in China’

On the same day, the king said “Do not separate the camp”

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea and China “Shi Jinping Willingness to Visit Korea, Promoting Fast”

U.S. Japan presses China with Biden’s first’quad’ meeting

Negotiations on defense costs are also quickly concluded…the gap between the ROK-US-US-Japan alliance

Even if Korea-US SMA agreement, growing’anti-China’ demands are burdensome

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Since the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, pressure from the world’s democratic camp, led by the United States, has been in full swing. From China’s declaration of opposition to foreign hostages to the multinational security council’Quad’ meeting, the anti-China solidarity is accelerating. In the midst of this, the Korean government is showing a strangely passive attitude to this, and an invisible tension is being detected. Some analyzes say that it is a strategy to make the most of the time, taking into account China’s role in North Korea relations, economic ties between Korea and China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Korea. Even after the change of the US regime, it still maintains the stance of “strategic ambiguity” and “high-route diplomacy”. While both Korea and the United States emphasize’strengthening the alliance between the United States and the United States’, diplomats have argued that the purpose of the alliance is quite different, with the US’checking the Chinese and totalitarian camps’ and South Korea’promoting a peace process on the Korean peninsula such as easing sanctions against North Korea’. Given the biden administration’s emphasis on alliance, if the US-China conflict intensifies, Korea is expected to eventually face a crossroads of choice. Experts point out that in preparation for this moment, Korea should reorganize its strategy in advance with diplomacy centered on national interests with values ​​such as’democratic’,’freedom’ and’human rights’.

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58 countries targeting China fall into’declaration of condemnation of detention for foreigners’

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 15th (local time), South Korea did not list its name in a statement calling for an immediate cessation of the detention of foreign nationals for political purposes as unacceptable. The countries that participated in the statement were 58 countries including the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and other advanced democratic countries. There were also developing countries and small countries such as Ghana, Benin, Tonga, and Tuvalu. Former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is also known to have expressed support in the statement.

The’Joint Declaration Against Arbitrary Detention’, although nominally led by Canada, was evaluated as being linked to the Biden administration’s strategy to form an anti-China front through international solidarity. This is because in 2018, the Chinese government detained Michael Cobrig, a former Canadian diplomat, and Michael Spaber, a North Korean businessman, and charged them with espionage. It happened days after Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of Huawei founder and vice president of the company. It was for this reason that Canadian government officials criticized China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran as the targets of their statements.

In this situation, the fact that Korea fell into the declaration provoked several interpretations to diplomats. Some also commented that the Korean government was not hesitant to join, considering the situation where Korean ships and captains were still captured by Iran. However, there was also a refutation that the crew had already been released and that the main target of the declaration was China.

There have also been criticisms from various places that the Korean government has seen North Korea and China’s attention again. It was accompanied by concerns that South Korea gave a message that seemed to be leaving the international anti-China front, which was actually the first ever since President Biden took office.

South Korea received international criticism for not participating in the joint proposal of the North Korean human rights resolution passed at the UN General Assembly in November last year. North Korea currently detains six Koreans. Foreign Ministry spokesman Choi Young-sam indirectly suggested that he had been asked to participate in a briefing on the 16th, saying, “I have been aware of the declaration.” At the same time, he mentioned only that “I plan to keep an eye on the trends of discussions in the international community in the future.”

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On the same day, Wang said to Eui-yong, “Don’t take sides… Xi Jinping willingness to visit Korea”

Coincidentally, on the same day, on the 16th, Foreign Minister Eui-yong Eui-yong spoke on the phone for the first time since his inauguration, with Wang as a member of the Chinese State Council and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the two Ministers shared the recognition that exchanges between the top and the high-level of the two countries are important for the deepening and development of Korea-China relations, which are strategic cooperation partners, and decided to actively pursue them.

General Wang especially reaffirmed President Xi’s will to visit Korea. Accordingly, the two ministers agreed to continue communicating so that the situation of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) can be stabilized and the conditions are ready, so that President Xi’s visit to Korea can take place as soon as possible. Wang also invited Minister Chung to visit China. For diplomats, the time to promote President Xi’s visit to Korea is from April to June, which is between the two meetings in March (National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Negotiation Conference), China’s largest political event, and the ‘100th Anniversary of the Communist Party’ on July 1. Fortune telling.

On the following day, the 17th, the People’s Daily, an agency of the Communist Party of China, delivered a more sensitive content of the dialogue between the two ministers. “China will maintain inclusive regional cooperation and openness” to Minister Wang, insisting that “it opposes dividing the camp ideologically.” This was a fact that was not included in the contents disclosed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It was interpreted as a warning that the Korean government has stepped up to strengthen the ROK-US alliance to improve relations with the US.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not directly mention President Xi’s visit to Korea. It was only introduced that the Minister Jung mentioned that the two countries should strengthen’high-level exchange’. Regarding the Korean peninsula issue, Wang also said, “The Korean peninsula issue is related to the important interests of both China and Korea (Korea and China),” and “China consistently values ​​Korea’s independent role in the Korean peninsula issue.” It seemed to check the intervention of external forces such as the United States in the Korean Peninsula issue.

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US and Japan speed pressure on China with Biden’s first’quad’ meeting

In the midst of the conflict between the United States and China, the United States, Japan, India and Australia held a quad diplomatic ministers meeting, the first security council since the inauguration of President Biden on the 18th (local time), while South Korea still engages in tightrope diplomacy. The Quad is a council formed with the intention of four countries to counter China’s increasing political, commercial, and military activities in the Indo-Pacific region. During the days of the Donald Trump administration of the United States, the first meeting of foreign ministers was held in New York, USA in September 2019, and the second meeting was held in Japan in October of last year.

According to Japan’s Kyodo News, US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu agreed to oppose China’s attempts to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, by confirming the policy to hold ministerial-level meetings of the participating countries at least once a year, they reinforced their will to cooperate to contain China. It will strengthen cooperation to promote free and open Indo-Pacific regions, including freedom of navigation and territorial conservation. Members of the ASEAN (Southeast Asian Nations Association), which are the coasts of the Indo-Pacific, reaffirmed their mutual support for the’ASEAN-centricity’ which advocated strengthening the role of the international community. However, the promotion of the quad summit could not be concluded.

Biden’s administration has mostly denied the foreign policy stance of former President Donald Trump, but has strongly expressed its will to maintain and develop the quad. In fact, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in a seminar last month that the quad was “a fundamental foundation for the development of practical US policy in the Indo-Pacific. We really want to take over that form and mechanism and develop it further.” President Biden also spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the 8th after taking office, forming a consensus on strengthening the quad.

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On the Chinese issue… Signs of widening gap between the ROK-US alliance

Diplomats diagnosed that the speed of solidarity between the ROK-US alliance and the US-Japan alliance was changing in the Biden government. It was analyzed that the two axes of the Korea-US-Japan triangular alliance to counter the totalitarian solidarity from Northeast Asia to China-Russia-North Korea were in different directions. The reason is that, while Japan is actively participating in the anti-Chinese front as if it were one body with the United States, we are not giving up a conscious attitude toward China and North Korea.

In the case of Japan, on the 17th, it agreed with the United States to extend the special agreement on defense costs between the United States and Japan for another year. The plan was to maintain the Japanese government’s contribution to the US military in Japan at around 200 billion yen (about 2.1 trillion won), the level of last year. The first call between Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and President Biden (January 27) was a week earlier than President Moon Jae-in (February 4), and the U.S.-Japan alliance accelerated more than the ROK-US alliance until military cooperation.

US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby said at a press briefing on the 17th (local time) that the US-Japan alliance is more robust and essential than ever. “We will continue to train and practice to improve interoperability and strengthen our capabilities.” did.

In contrast, a strange current is flowing in the ROK-US alliance over the Chinese issue. The Korean government has already reacted negatively to this last year when the US mentioned the’Quad Plus’ initiative that added three countries, South Korea, Vietnam, and New Zealand to the current quad. Minister Eui-yong Eui-yong was also asked whether to participate in the quad at the first press conference in office on the 9th, and posed a condition that “it must be transparent, open and inclusive.” When asked about the response to the US-China conflict, he said, “It is important for both the US and China.” In a work report conducted by the National Assembly’s Foreign and Transportation Affairs Committee on the 18th, Minister Chung mentioned the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance in connection with the progress of the peace process on the Korean peninsula. Emphasized.

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The conclusion of the defense cost negotiations is imminent, but the pressure to join’anti-China’ seems to increase

However, among the US-Korea relations, the negotiations for the Korea-US Defense Contribution Agreement (SMA), which had been difficult as former US President Trump, are expected to come to a conclusion sooner or later. There are also observations that the point may be the end of this month as early as possible.

The US CNN broadcast on the 11th (local time) cited multiple sources and reported that the defense cost share negotiations could be concluded within a few weeks. In detail, it said that it is highly likely to agree on a multi-year contract with an amount that is 13% higher than before.

This is similar to the terms and conditions tentatively agreed by the US in March last year. At that time, the two countries tentatively agreed on a plan to increase their contribution in 2020 by 13% from 2019 (1.389 trillion won), but the final agreement could not be reached due to the rejection of former President Trump, who adhered to the principle of increasing the increase by 50% or more.

On the 5th, Korea and the United States also held the 8th meeting to sign the SMA via video. Ministers Eui-yong Eui-yong and Minister Blincoln were also reported to have agreed on a call on the 12th and agreed to make efforts to quickly settle the defense cost negotiations. Hanmi had the experience of signing five-year contracts two times during the Barack Obama administration, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018.

This is, in fact, a trend predicted to some extent from the election of President Biden, who emphasized restoration of relations with allies. The ROK government will be able to focus on other issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue if the defense cost issue is ended as soon as possible.

The problem is then. It is a common judgment of diplomats that the US is likely to demand stronger participation in the pressure of South Korea against China in exchange for pre-determining the issue of US forces in Korea. This is why the voice that the US-China conflict has intensified and that we should prepare for the situation in which we have to accept options from now on is gaining strength little by little.

Shin Beom-cheol, director of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security at the Economic and Social Research Institute, diagnosed, “As the Korean government pushed forward with the President’s visit to Korea in the first half of the year, the Chinese side had no choice but to notice, so it is regrettable that it will react passively to the quad expansion plan. Professor Nam Nam-wook of Korea University’s Faculty of Unification and Foreign Affairs said, “From the US point of view, Japan is the most important country to check China.” .

※’National Jokes (國政濃談)’ is a corner that conveys the news of current issues and stories on the’concentration’ related to administration, diplomacy, security, and politics.

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/ Reporter Yoon Kyung-hwan [email protected]

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