[경제통]Temporary leave, the largest increase in history, the job market’primer’

The number of people who took a leave of absence due to no work has increased to the highest level ever. If the Corona 19 crisis continues, there is a high possibility of becoming unemployed, and there are concerns that it could act as a’prisoner’ of the job market this year.

According to the National Statistical Office on the 20th, the number of temporary leavers last year was 837,000, more than doubled from 2019 (407,000). It is the largest ever since the statistics were written in 2013. The proportion of temporary leavers (3.1%) of the total employed (26.94,000 people) last year also exceeded twice that of 2019 (1.5%).

Temporary leavers exploded due to Corona 19. Graphic = Reporter Jaemin Shin [email protected]

In January of this year, the trend of temporary leave continues to increase. Last month, the number of temporary leavers was 892,000, an increase of 63.4% in one year. The proportion of temporary leavers increased from 2% to 3.5% during the same period. As of January, both are the largest ever. Temporary leave is people who take a temporary break from work for various reasons at the time of the investigation.

The increase in the number of temporary leave is analyzed because the number of temporary leave due to business slump due to Corona 19 and suspension of operations has increased significantly. Business sluggishness, which was usually in the 40,000 to 60,000 level, and the number of temporary leave workers on suspension of work increased to 371,000 last year, the highest ever. Compared to 2019 (48,000 people), it has increased by about 8 times. In general, temporary sickness and accidents and temporary leave due to annual leave and leave are the most common, but the number of temporary leave due to an unusual business sluggishness and suspension of operations increased significantly only last year.

Temporary leavers are first classified as employed. This is because there is a possibility of returning to work soon. However, the situation will change if the economic recovery is delayed. Companies that have been waiting for the Corona 19 to pass through the suspension and leave of work can reach their limits and lead to unemployment as they begin to cut their jobs. In addition, when temporary leavers’ return is delayed, job seekers in their twenties and early thirties have fewer employment opportunities and delays in getting their first job.

Changes by reason for temporary leave. Graphic = Reporter Jaemin Shin [email protected]

According to the results of the analysis based on the’Economically Active Population Survey for the First Half of 2020′ by the Korea Economic Research Institute, if the number of temporary leave due to sluggish business and suspension of work increases by one, the number of employed is 0.35 the following month, and 0.58 employed two months Appeared to decrease. This means that the probability of a temporary leaver becoming unemployed in two months is up to 58%.

Research Fellow Gyeong-Yeon Han, Jin-sung Yoo, pointed out, “Even in crisis situations such as 1997-98 and 2008-09, there was no explosive increase in the number of temporary leavers.” He said, “It is important to share jobs through flexible work and reduce the burden on companies to maintain job continuity,” he said. “For example, full-time workers can be converted to part-time work when necessary. It is necessary to expand work flexibility through diversification.”

Experts say that even if Corona 19 subsides, it may take some time for job conditions to find their place. Park Young-beom, professor of economics at Hansung University, explained, “Companies do not immediately start hiring just because their sales recover.”

Sejong = Reporter Son Hae-yong [email protected]

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