[초점] Bitcoin $50,000 countdown… what’s next?

[블록미디어] This theory was a little different. Bitcoin price has hit an all-time high, and $50,000 is in front of you. Chinese miners haven’t even poured out supplies. Let’s check the long-term supply and demand and the market after $50,000.

# Is Wall Street taking the lead?
After Tesla, the market’s interest has focused on Wall Street. Because most cards, banks, and asset managers are coming out to adopt Bitcoin. Yesterday, there was news that Counterpoint Global, a Morgan Stanley-affiliated investment company, is considering investing in Bitcoin. Counterpoint Global has $150 billion in assets under management.

Deutsche Bank is also preparing for cryptocurrency consignment. There was also news that Arc Investments also bought more bitcoins through Grayscale. It looks like buying power is coming from the west side of the Earth.

# Real identity of the Lunar New Year rally
Cryptoquant CEO Ju-Young Ju has a slightly different idea. I wrote this in the tweet I posted on the 14th. “Currently, the buying power does not come from Coinbase. It won’t be easy to break through $50,000. The coinbase premium is -45 dollars.”

If Wall Street movement was driving this Lunar New Year rally, the Coinbest premium would not have gone down to negative. US-based media, such as CoinDesk, have not been able to say a clear reason for the price increase.

http://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1360837157040967681/photo/1

It can be said that during the Lunar New Year holidays, relatively strong buying power was used in Asian countries such as Korea and China.

For short-term trading, a 50,000 dollar touch is very important. In the tweets posted on the 9th and 11th, Joo also wrote, “I will see 50,000 dollars soon,” referring to the amount of stablecoins entering the exchange. The problem is after that.

# After $50,000
Cointelegraph cited trader Scott Melker, reporting that Bitcoin is continually sending bullish signals. Melker sees $48,200 as the support and $49,700 as resistance.

Two scenarios are possible.

First, after the breakthrough of $50,000, the coinbase premium turns to a positive, followed by the Wall Street buying trend that was waiting.

Second, it will touch $50,000, but there is a deep adjustment. In this case, the adjustment width is a problem.

For one clue, let’s say Tesla bought the $1.5 billion bitcoin in January at the average price range of $35,000 vs. That’s roughly 25-30% up to $50,000 here. So, I don’t think it’s surprising if I adjust it to around 30% after a 50,000 dollar touch.

Bitcoin’s high volatility is what Wall Street investment banks are most concerned about. The price fluctuations mentioned in each report are also about 30%.

# Mid- to long-term perspective
In short-term trading, let’s take a quick look at the mid- to long-term factors. Bitcoin investment is still an issue for Wall Street to consider. The basic premise is this. Monetary and fiscal expansion to defend against the corona pandemic will eventually increase inflation pressure. How to avoid this.

Let me show you an indicator of how much money has been released in the US financial markets.

The top graph is the junk bond yield (interest rate). It was 4.09% last week. It is the lowest level ever. Last March, the Junk Bond yield was 9.2%. When interest rates go down, it means bond prices go up. Investment funds have flown. Junk bonds are relatively risky bonds that do not receive an investment grade. These bond yields have come down to an all-time low.

The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which is the standard for the bond market, is 1.2%. Money can’t withstand such low returns and flow into’high risk’ junk bonds.

The graph below is the US central bank’s Fed’s base rate (Federal Fund Fed Rate). It is the third lowest level since the 2000 dot com bubble and the 2008 gold crisis.

On Wall Street, investing in junk bonds, investing in stocks, and investing in safe government bonds are different in nature. No matter how much you increase the yield, the money invested in government bonds does not come in bitcoin.

I am worried. How will the released money affect it? We see gold prices, we see dollar movement. It means that you are now taking a peek at the price of bitcoin.

The aspect of the money game is changing.