“I’m stuck with ugly hair, would you be welcome?”… 2nd·4th Measures, Gangnam-seon wore a nose

“It’s like the referee directly plays as a player.” After the government’s 2nd and 4th real estate measures, the representative of the housing development company gave a word about the’public direct implementation’ project method.

“How do you believe in the public when you ask to pass over ownership?” This is an acquaintance who lives in a reconstruction apartment in Gangnam, Seoul.

The economy is called’psychology’, but looking at the housing market these days, it is even more real. The’distrust of countermeasures’ and’anticipation of deregulation’ that prevailed in the market are shaking home prices and housing policies. The government is paying attention to’anxiety about housing shortages’ following speculation and liquidity for multi-homed people as the cause of the surge in house prices.

After the Lunar New Year, the direction of the housing market and the effects of the 2nd and 4th measures depended on the’psychological warfare’ between the government and the market, and the public and private sectors.

The government put the modifier’breakthrough’ in front of the second and fourth measures. I would like to differentiate it from the previous countermeasures, but the reaction is bleak.

An executive in charge of the maintenance project of a large construction company said, “In Gangbuk, there is some interest, but in Gangnam, it is generally at the level of’nose farts’.”

As a result of a survey of 500 men and women over the age of 18 on the 5th by Real Meter, more than half of the respondents (53.1%) answered that it will not be helpful. The most negative reactions were in Seoul (56.4%).

Mistrust of the government raised distrust of countermeasures. Although the detailed standards of this measure were not confirmed, only the outlines were revealed, but the reason that the rejection reaction precedes is due to the fall of trust in the current government.

An industry official said, “As the presidential support declines, etc., the government has a lot of’ugly hairs’ embedded in the government. Would unfamiliar measures not seen before be welcomed?”

‘Loss’ such as real estate ownership and cooperative business rights, which must be handed over to the public, are more prominent than’profits’ such as additional profits suggested by the government.

Since the 2·4 supply expansion measures are a new supply method, there are many doubts about the feasibility of realization such as quantity.

The government proposed 320,000 households in Seoul and 830,000 households nationwide. Minister Byeon Chang-heum said on the TV on the 7th that it was “buying conservatively”. “In the case of direct public reconstruction and redevelopment, the participation rate was set at 25%. said. The higher the actual participation rate, the greater the supply can be.

The government said that there are many lost houses because it is developing old residential areas, but the net increase effect of new apartments is greater due to the reduction of the floor area ratio.

A government official explained, “The effect of the increase compared to the previous number of households will increase from 1.1 to 1.3 times to 1.3 to 1.5 times.”

However, if the resident participation rate is low, the supply will decrease, so the second and fourth measures are highly volatile and risky plans.

This is why some point out that there is a need for a stable supply of housing, such as a corporate’cash cow’ (a fixed source of income).

Professor Kwon Dae-jung of Myongji University said, “I don’t see a definite supply plan in hand in Seoul, where housing supply is desperate.”

There is high hope that the high-intensity regulations introduced by the current government will be released in inverse proportion to the government’s distrust of measures. The shift in the direction of housing policy from suppressing demand to expanding supply became the basis. Preliminary candidates for the mayor of Seoul crying out for deregulation are fueling expectations for deregulation.

The middle and easing of the transfer tax for multi-homed people came to mind. It is a question whether the government will ease the heavy burden of the transfer tax for multi-homed people in order to induce sales. Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and Minister of Strategy and Finance appeared on TV last month, and his remarks ignited. He added, “It is also an important supply measure to have those who have three or four of them present for sale.”

The government temporarily eased the heavy duty on the transfer of multiple houses in the first half of last year before strengthening the comprehensive real estate tax. As the final tax was strengthened this year, the increase in the heavy tax rate on the transfer tax was delayed by six months until June this year.

Preliminary candidates for the Mayor’s by-election in April are promoting redevelopment and reconstruction. Due to the active opposition candidates, they proposed abolishing the pre-sale price limit, raising the floor area ratio (ratio of total floor space on the ground to the project site), and easing the number of floors.

However, if you look at it calmly, the possibility of realization is not high. There is no point in the government giving the key to deregulation right away. Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Byun Chang-heum recently expressed his opposition several times, saying, “If the transfer tax is eased, it may confuse the market by giving a message that it is okay to invest additional housing.”

Under the premise of public initiative in the 2nd and 4th measures, the government indirectly accepted key regulations related to reconstruction such as floor area ratio and reconstruction excess profit return system.

Even if the opposition party takes power in the presidential election a year or so later, deregulation is not easy. Taxation and reconstruction regulations are imposed by law, so it is difficult unless the current ruling party comes forward.

The strengthening and easing of regulations depends on the market. During the Roh Moo-hyun administration, the heavy transfer tax for multi-homed people, the rehabilitation excess profit redemption system, and the pre-sale price ceiling system were largely resolved by the Lee Myung-bak administration and the Park Geun-hye administration. They tried to abolish the excess profit redemption system and the pre-sale price limit, but they could not.

“If the house price continued to rise, it would not have been resolved,” said Ham Young-jin, head of Jikbang Big Data Lab.

The government plays a big role in calming the market’s distrust and anxiety.

Lee Tae-hee, an associate researcher at the Korea Institute of Construction Industry, said, “In most maintenance projects, public and land owners have been in a relationship of distrust and antagonism.” I said.

How to do it. Organizational psychologist and author of 『Originals』 Adam Grant (Professor at Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, USA) in a recent contribution to the New York Times, listened to the psychotherapy technique’motivational interviewing’. Instead, let them find the motivation to change.” Reporter Ahn Jang-won [email protected]