The 25th real estate countermeasures… the market “has no presence”
It’s full of’number game’, supplying 830,000 units in 5 years?
Photo = Getty Image Bank
The 25th real estate measure, which President Moon Jae-in announced that it was a “special supply measure,” was revealed yesterday. The market reaction to this is only cold.
In the case of previously announced countermeasures, after being announced, controversy over the impact on the market in various real estate internet communities arose. However, this time, the reaction is insignificant to the point of confusion as to whether a countermeasure has been made.
Moreover, like the previous countermeasures, there are also factors that cannot rule out the possibility of causing distortion to the market everywhere. We have summarized the points to note and the impact on the market of the 25th real estate measure.
① Unrealistic supply scale
The government has announced that it will secure a’site’ capable of supplying 830,000 homes nationwide by 2025. At the same time, I didn’t specifically explain what area and how much I would build.
‘We will supply 830,000 houses’ and’We will secure a site to build houses’ are quite different. Since most of the lands aimed at securing are private lands such as station area, semi-industrial sites, and maintenance projects, if land is not secured as predicted by the government, the number of ’83 million’ is likely to remain literally a number.
Many point out that it is difficult to trust the way the government pulled out the numbers that the government suggested as “possible to secure”. For example, in the case of a maintenance project site, after estimating the total quantity (1.11 million households) that can be supplied in the reconstruction/redevelopment area, the ratio of the complex that is likely to participate in public reconstruction and redevelopment (expected participation rate) is randomly applied to supply quantity. Was calculated.
In Seoul, we applied the ratio (25%) that participated in the public redevelopment contest held last year to 220,000 households, which was expected to be supplied from the complex before the reconstruction/reconstruction project was approved. As a result, they expected to be able to supply 55,000 households.
But will the major reconstruction and redevelopment promotion complexes move as expected by the government? Unlike public redevelopment right now, in the case of public redevelopment, it is difficult to find complexes that hope to participate, and public redevelopment is also a board where the number of unions suggesting abandonment is increasing when the’cover’ is opened.
② Another’strict speculation demand’
One of the biggest confusion in the market is that after the announcement of this measure, it was decided not to grant the right to move in to consumers who signed contracts in the reconstruction/redevelopment area, which was directly implemented by the public. These people will be subject to cash settlement later.
If this happens, the predictable real estate market trend is the contraction of demand for complexes with reconstruction and redevelopment requirements. If the complex purchased after the countermeasures is designated as a public direct implementation project, it may be subject to cash liquidation. Who will bravely purchase such a house?
Therefore, there is an observation that the demand for purchase of new apartments that have completed the maintenance business will increase further in the market. If the unions are attracted to public direct implementation projects and actively participate in the project as expected by the government, it could have a positive effect on supply expansion.
otherwise? Experts believe that the possibility of stimulating only another balloon effect without seeing the supply effect cannot be ruled out.
③ The butterfly effect of the introduction of the’subscription lottery system’
In this measure, the biggest interest of preliminary homeless subscribers is the introduction of a lottery system for houses under 85m2 for exclusive use that are supplied in the manner included in the February 4th supply plan. Currently, it is going to supply 30% by lottery by replacing the supply of 100% sequentially for public sales.
It is true that due to the current subscription system of an additional point system, the subscription opportunities of couples in their thirties were completely blocked, taking away young people’s dream of finding a home. As such, the introduction of the lottery system is also a positive factor.
However, here too, there is a problem to consider. In order to be able to sign up through lottery, you must meet the ‘3 years homeless’ requirement.
In general, it may not be a problem, but the problem is that the jeonse market is still unstable due to the leasing law passed last year. As the jeonse price surges in the short term and the jeonse demand turns into trading demand, the jeonse market is in its own right to stabilize.
In the midst of this, the possibility of igniting the jeonse price again will not be ruled out if the demand for waiting for subscriptions abandons the provision of a house and flows into the jeonse market with the announcement of this measure. Even those waiting for the subscription, who have been aiming to win under an additional point system and have consistently accumulated scores, should also consider the sense of loss.
A total of 45 pages of this press release (public-led 3080+ plan to dramatically expand the supply of housing in metropolitan areas) included all kinds of mischief. Aside from everything else, the most important premise for the success of the February 4th supply plan is the cooperation of landlords.
However, in this countermeasure, a new regulation called’sharing development profits’ was introduced instead of exempting the redemption of excess profit from reconstruction. In a situation where’real estate distrust’ toward the government is so high, will landlords readily accept this method?
Many experts and field officials are expecting the real estate market to react in earnest from the end of the Lunar New Year holiday. I am curious about how this measure will affect the market at that time.
Editorial Writer Song Jong-Hyun [email protected]