Housing market anxiety still remains despite ‘previous supply measures’…If residents’ participation is low, ‘public check’

Designated residential districts in and around 15 places in Gyeonggi-do and Incheon, the core of high-density development in the station area
Induce participation by increasing the benefits of public maintenance projects, expanding subscription opportunities for 3040 households
We need to see the effectiveness of short-term supply and deregulation in the private market

[서울=뉴스핌] Reporter Dong-Hoon Lee = It is noteworthy whether the government will attempt to stabilize the market as the government decides to pour out the previous level of supply to alleviate the unrest in the housing market. In addition to designation of housing districts, measures to dramatically increase housing supply in the city center were included, such as maintenance projects and revitalization of high-density development in the station area.

As the unrest in the housing market is caused by a supply-demand imbalance, which is less supply than demand, an increase in the quantity of goods in major locations is expected to contribute to stabilization. It is also positive that the benefits of high-density development and public maintenance projects in the station area have increased, leaving room for an increase in housing supply in Seoul. However, it is also evaluated that the location and quantity of the housing district designation plan has not been disclosed in detail, and that most of the government’s plans must be proceeded with the consent of the land and house owners, so that the effectiveness of the project must be observed.

◆ Previous-class housing supply… 840,000 households including 320,000 in Seoul

On the 5th, according to the government and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the’Public-led 3080, metropolitan area housing supply remarkable expansion plan’ was announced, which contained the supply of 840,000 households nationwide.

Apartment in Yeouido, Seoul<시진=이동훈기자>

The core of this measure is to supply sufficient quantity to the city center that consumers want. It is a plan to quickly resolve the rise in house prices caused by supply-demand imbalances. The easing of some regulations on maintenance projects with public institutions is also a part of the willingness to expand supply.

In the future, there will be an unprecedented level of housing supply. The plan is to supply a total of 836,000 households, including 616,000 households in the metropolitan area and 220,000 local households by 2025. When combined with the existing residential welfare roadmap and the supply plan for 1.27 million households in the metropolitan area, which is being promoted by the third new city, a total of over 2 million households will be introduced.

Of these, Seoul plans to supply 320,000 households, the size of three new cities in Bundang. The main supply plan is maintenance business. It is promoted in the form of public redevelopment and public reconstruction, and it is a policy to supply 93,000 households. Incheon, Gyeonggi and 5 metropolitan cities will also create 21,000 and 22,000 households, respectively.

The high-density development of station area, semi-industrial and low-rise residential areas (city center public housing complex project), which has been emphasized since the inauguration of Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Byun Chang-heum, will also be in full swing. Introducing the urban public housing complex project (three-year temporary application) to develop old and inefficient sites. Increase the building floor area ratio by up to 700% and reduce the commercial facility ratio. It is a complex high-density development that combines residential, business, and commercial facilities. Seoul supplies 78,000 households, 6000 households, and 33,000 households, respectively. It is also planning to buy 25,000 households.

In Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, public housing development is the key. It accounts for 180,000 households out of the total 293,000 households. Select 15 to 20 locations nationwide. The specific location and volume by region will be disclosed later. The mayor will discuss candidate regions in Gyeonggi-do ▲ Gwangmyeong and Siheung area ▲ Goyang Daegok ▲ Gimpo Gochon. These are areas that are ranked as the number one development area in terms of accessibility and size of Seoul.

In the five metropolitan cities, ▲ 22,000 homes for maintenance work ▲ 31,000 homes in the station area ▲ 15,000 homes in low-rise residential areas ▲ 32,000 homes for small-scale redevelopment ▲ 14,000 new purchases.

◆ High-density development core for Seoul housing supply station area and maintenance business

The main model for housing supply in the Seoul area is high-density development in the station area and public maintenance projects. It amounts to 78,000 households, or 24% of the total 323,000 households. As such, the effectiveness of the government’s housing supply is determined by the degree of response of the station area development project.

It increases profitability to engage landowners. It guarantees a 10~30%P (point) rate of return compared to when the landowner directly conducts development projects. Basically, it focuses on securing profitability by supplying apartments and shopping malls first.

The big framework for sharing development profits is that when the project profit is 100 billion won, the land owner allocates about 30 billion won. Other than this, it consists of ▲20 billion won for the expansion of living SOC (social overhead capital) ▲ 25 billion won for land demanders in special situations ▲ 15 billion won for tenants and small merchants ▲ 10 billion won for public-private households and leases.

Project procedures can be proposed by landowners, private enterprises, or local governments. District designation is possible with 10% consent from the landlord. If two-thirds of the land owners agree, the project plan and construction start in earnest.

In addition, if the land owner pays the price of a new apartment or shopping mall to be borne by the land owner in advance as the property of the existing owner, it is regarded as replotting and the transfer tax is not taxed. Landlord refers to the land owner giving a certain amount of land instead of paying for it during the development process. On the other hand, if a new house is transferred in the future, like the current maintenance project, a transfer tax is imposed.

Housing supply according to development proceeds centering on pre-sale. 70~80% of the total supply is distributed to the public, and the rest is made up of public leases and public corporations.

There are also floor area ratio benefits. The floor area ratio of the quasi-residential area is raised from 400% to 700%. The proportion of commercial facilities in semi-residential facilities will be reduced from 10% to 5%. Commercial areas are reduced from 20% to 10%. The right to sunlight, the obligation to install the landscape, and the height standard are also eased.

The targets of the station area development project are apartments, villas, and shopping centers within 350m of the station. Among the 307 subway stations in Seoul, more than 100 will be selected first and the project will be promoted.

Public maintenance projects also increased benefits. Exemption from the reconstruction excess profit recovery system is exempted and the floor area ratio is raised to a maximum of 120% of the legal upper limit. The two-year residency obligation period for reconstruction members is not applied. The donation rate is also reduced from 20-25% to around 15%. This is a measure to promote public reconstruction and redevelopment.

◆ Expansion of subscription opportunities for ’30/40 households’ in the volume of public maintenance projects

Opportunities for apartment subscriptions for ’30/40 households’ increase. However, this applies to maintenance projects led by public institutions such as urban public housing complex projects, public direct implementation maintenance projects, and small-scale maintenance projects. As the government plans to increase opportunities for newlyweds and 3040 households to find their own home, it is highly likely to expand into the general sale market in the future.

Currently, 85% of the total amount is specially supplied for public pre-sale with a pre-sale price of 900 million won or less. The general supply volume is 15%. The government will increase the proportion of general supply for public pre-sale of 85㎡ or less for exclusive use from 15% to 50%.

A lottery system is applied to 30% of the general supply of public sales of 85㎡ or less for exclusive use. Currently, a 100% sequential system has been introduced for general supply of 85㎡ or less for exclusive use in public apartments. The sequential system is a method of selecting applicants with a large amount of savings from homeless people for three years or more.

Income requirements are excluded for high-priced homes exceeding 900 million won. Currently, the income requirement is applied to the general supply for public sales of less than 60㎡ for exclusive use, such as 100% of the monthly average income of urban workers. In this measure, if the sale price for exclusive use of less than 60㎡ exceeds 900 million won, the income requirement is excluded.

◆ Owner participation is opaque…no short-term supply plan

As this supply expansion plan is mostly based on the consent of the landlord, there is also uncertainty. This is because the government’s countermeasures will be limited to’air checks’ unless the owners of land, villas, and shopping malls participate in development projects.

Looking at the detailed supply type, the only projects that can be carried out according to the will of the government are the designation of new housing site development districts and the purchase of new construction. The rest of the urban public housing complex project, urban regeneration, and non-housing remodeling should be done with the residents. It accounts for half of the total supply plan.

Unlike general maintenance projects, these types of houses do not form a cooperative, so their interests are complex. Due to the nature of villas and multiple households, the difference in the price of rights is large, and the increase in the current market price is not properly reflected, making it difficult for landlords to participate. There is also a negative perception that the opinions of land owners will be excluded as development projects are led by public institutions.

As a mid- to long-term measure, the immediate impact on the market is limited, but voices come out. The proposed plan is expected to take at least four years to complete construction after obtaining residents’ consent. It is said that it is difficult to correct the supply-demand imbalance in the current housing market right away.

Park Won-gap, a senior expert at Kookmin Bank, said, “It is interpreted as an all-out supply battle for development by securing available land in urban areas such as reconstruction and redevelopment, station areas, semi-industrial areas, and low-rise residential areas.” The point that is difficult to do is homework to be solved.”

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