During the 3rd outbreak of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), a warning was issued that “the 4th epidemic will hit a larger level than the present in March and April.” Experts are concerned that these mutations could lead the 4th outbreak, with a large number of people infected with the mutant virus transmitted from overseas entrants in local communities.
“Maybe the variation could be bigger”
Jeong Jae-hoon, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University Gil Hospital, said on the 4th, “It is possible to intuitively predict when and in what size the 4th outbreak will come based on the interval, duration, and size (the size of the confirmed case) between the 1st and 3rd outbreaks.” “We need to prepare for response on the assumption of 2,000 confirmed cases in March and April,” he said. Professor Jeong also feared that if the mutation spreads to the local community, the scale of the outbreak could increase.
Jae-Hoon Jeong, Professor of Preventive Medicine, Gachon University Gil Hospital. Photo provided by yourself
Below is a question and answer with Professor Jeong Jae-hoon.
- The 4th epidemic period was expected from March to April.
- Changes in infectious diseases follow a mathematical model well. The SEIR model is a representative model used to predict infectious diseases. (※SEIR is a model that predicts the occurrence of patients over time by dividing the population into suspicious (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and recovered (R) population.) However, the mathematical model was used. There is a drawback that the results vary greatly depending on the variables. Various factors such as social distancing, variation, vaccination progression, and seasonal changes affect the outbreak, but it is difficult to reflect all of these factors. Intuition based on the interval and duration of the first to third epidemics, and the size (the size of the confirmed case) can be helpful for prediction. The fact that the gap between fashions is getting shorter and the fashions get bigger is the information we got from the three trends. In most countries, these patterns are similar. Considering this, I think it is possible to logically explain the size and when the 4th fashion will come.
With the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) spreading across the country, medical staff are examining citizens at the Corona 19 Screening Clinic in the Seo-gu Health Center in Daejeon on the 3rd. Reporter Kim Seong-tae
- Please be specific.
- When the interval between the end of the fashion and the beginning of the next one is considered as the’rest period’, the first break was 122 days and the second break was about 45 days. The rest period was shortened by 78 days. It means that the time has been shortened by that amount until the next fashion comes. It is expected that the 4th outbreak will come in a similar or shorter time to the 2nd and 3rd outbreaks, and that period will be in March-April.
- I think the fashion will come on a bigger scale.
- Fashion grew every time it came. This is because the remaining baseline (starting point) has risen after the fashion is over. In the first resting period, there were 10-30 people, the second resting period was 50-100 people, and at the end of the third epidemic, it was predicted to be 200-500 people. At the current level, the number of patients does not fall further and is still stagnant. If the 4th outbreak comes at the level of 200~500 people, the scale is expected to increase.
- Is it possible that 2,000 people can occur every day?
- It is also possible. However, it is close to the worst (worst) scenario. It can be lowered by public effort.
- Is the peak of the 4th epidemic predicted?
- The peak of each fashion was the first March 3, the second August 26, and the third December 24. The period between the 1st and 2nd epidemic peaks was 176 days, and the period between the 2nd and 3rd epidemic peaks was 120 days. It was shortened by about 56 days. The peak of the 4th epidemic can be expected to be up to 120 days away from the 3rd peak, and it could be shorter if you look at the epidemic in the past. Taking this into account, it is expected to reach the peak of the 4th epidemic from March 4 to April 23.
- The third epidemic is still there, but the reason for warning of the fourth epidemic.
- You can feel that the peak of the 3rd epidemic has passed, but it is not the time to feel at ease. Compared to vaccination preparations, there is relatively little interest in preparing for the fourth outbreak. When the 4th epidemic comes, it is the most vulnerable period when the vaccine has just begun to be distributed, and the greatest damage may occur because it is before the vaccine’s effectiveness is exerted. Efforts now may slow the arrival of the 4th epidemic. Assuming that there will be 2,000 confirmed cases in March-April, preparations for treatment such as securing a bed and a life treatment center should be prepared.
After it is known that the corona 19 mutant virus spread from the UK has also flowed into Korea, officials are conducting quarantine at Incheon International Airport Terminal 1. Newsis
- Recently, a bunch of mutant infections were confirmed. Such a variable.
- Even though mutation is not considered when predicting, mutation is a natural phenomenon. If the high-impact mutation spreads rapidly to the community, the scale of the 4th outbreak could of course be larger. (※ It is known that the spread of mutations from the UK is 1.7 times stronger. Last month, the authorities said, “The infectious disease reproduction index of Corona 19 in Korea is about 0.82. It was also designated as the largest variable.)
- How to block mutation.
- It has already entered the world and has become a dominant species. It is inherently difficult to deter domestic inflow. There may already be a quiet spread in the community. If the entrants adhere to self-isolation as much as possible, it will block the inflow of domestically to some extent, but separate measures are needed for families of self-isolation. Given the circumstances, might we consider quarantining the facility for foreign immigrants until a certain amount of vaccine has been given? (*Currently, only those coming from dangerous countries such as the UK, South Africa, Brazil, etc. will be moved to a temporary living facility after entering the country and quarantined until a voice is heard.)
- Is there any possibility that mutation will neutralize the vaccine?
- It will not disable the vaccine, but the vaccine may be a little less effective. If the effect is inferior, it means that the inoculation rate should be higher to form the same level of collective immunity. Anthony Pouch, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) in the United States, said, “The virus must multiply and replicate before mutations occur. Without proliferation and replication, there is no mutation.’ By forming collective immunity to reduce prevalence, it is easier to cope with mutations.
On the 31st of last month, a truck is entering the Central Medical Center for Corona 19 Vaccination in Jung-gu. yunhap news
- Immunization will begin soon. Will it affect the 4th fashion?
- Getting started with vaccination is definitely good news. However, in the case of foreign countries, the United Kingdom and Israel are the only countries whose vaccination rate of the entire population has reached 10%, and the trend of the decrease in confirmed cases in the vaccination countries including Israel is not obvious. Immunity is formed at least several weeks after the first vaccination. This means that no matter what level the inoculation rate reaches, the prevalence does not decrease immediately. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce damage by forming collective immunity as soon as possible.
Reporter Hwang Soo-yeon [email protected]