[채인택의 글로벌 줌업] ‘My country first’… Corona 19 escape shaken by vaccine nationalism

In-Taek Chae International Reporter

Resolving the’vaccine gap’ is emerging as a new task for the international community. The securing and vaccination of a novel coronavirus vaccine shows a significant gap between rich and developing countries. The European Union (EU) is experiencing a vaccine turmoil due to a shortage of supplies, and there is a conflict in exports of vaccines with the UK, but many developing countries are unable to see the vaccine, let alone vaccination.

According to Bloomberg News, by the 2nd, at least 62 countries around the world had been vaccinated. Last week, six developing countries, including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Seychelles, were also vaccinated. However, there are not many countries in the world outside of wealthy North America and Europe. If we look at the vaccination status at the major regional alliance units, the vaccine gap is evident.

The Arab League (AL), with a total population of 422 million in 22 member states in the Middle East and North Africa, is currently vaccinating only six countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Egypt. All but Egypt are rich oil producing countries. The Arab League has strong linguistic and religious homogeneity, but is not equal in terms of economic power and vaccines. The Arab League’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at $4200 in 2020.

The coronavirus vaccine is being vaccinated against elderly people on the 11th in Haifa, a northern city in Israel. In Israel, as of the 2nd, 53.58% of the population had been vaccinated at least once. [AFP=연합뉴스]

In the African Union (AU), which has a population of 1.321 billion and 55 member states, the only countries inoculated are Egypt, Guinea and Seychelles. Egypt is a simultaneous member of the Arab League and the African Union. Guinea, the first country to be vaccinated in Africa, received the Russian Gamaleya (Sputnik V) vaccine to 55 people. The Seychelles is an Indian Ocean island nation with a population of 80,000 and received Indian vaccine support. The African Union’s per capita GDP is $1958.

In ASEAN (ASEAN, Southeast Asian Union), with a total population of 660 million in 10 member states, Myanmar, supported by India, followed by Singapore and Indonesia, started vaccination last week. Malaysia and the Philippines are also preparing. ASEAN’s per capita GDP is $5017.

Even looking at the vaccine contract situation, the situation is the same. ‘Vaccine greed’, as rich countries, large countries, and vaccine producers (including consignment) monopolize the quantity of supplies, is becoming a promising trend. Some countries have become a vaccine black hole, securing several times the population, including items that have not yet been approved for emergency use.

A container containing 10 doses of the coronavirus vaccine jointly developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University. [AFP=연합뉴스]

India, a country with a population of 1.3 billion, has secured a whopping 2.2 billion batches of AstraZeneca and Nova Bax, including 1 billion batches each and 200 million Gamalea batches. India decided to export after satisfying a certain amount first while operating a vaccine consignment production plant. The EU, with a population of 446 million, secured 1.45 billion doses, including 300 million doses of AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Sanofi GSK vaccines each.

The U.S. with a population of 331 million also decided to import 1.10 billion batches, including 300 million batches of AstraZeneca and 200 million batches of Modena and Pfizer each. Britain, with a population of 68 million, has secured a total of 7 types of 367 million batches, including 100 million batches of AstraZeneca in its factory. Canada with a population of 37.6 million is also planning to introduce 234 million doses of seven types of vaccines.

In contrast, in the Arab League, Egypt (61% of the population secured vaccines), Bahrain (36%), the United Arab Emirates (36%), and in ASEAN, Indonesia (50%), Malaysia (46%), Philippines (36%), and Vietnam. (21%), and in the African Union, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (10%) and the Republic of South Africa (6%) are the best. The remaining member states are less than 5%.

Even the World Health Organization (WHO) and others have secured 700 million doses, including 300 million doses of AstraZeneca, 200 million doses of UBI, and 200 million doses of Sanofi and GSK. By the end of this year, it is far below the supply target of 2 billion batches. Most developing countries are hung up on Kovacs, but the reality is cold. It shows that in order to secure a vaccine, information, diplomacy, and administrative power are required as well as economic power.

Bloomberg estimates that there are currently more than 110 vaccine supply contracts worth 8.49 billion doses worldwide. Most of the vaccines are two doses, which is enough to provide immunity to 54% of the world’s 7.8 billion people. Many vaccines have not yet been approved for emergency use or are in clinical trials. Bloomberg predicts that it will have to pass by 2022 for all vaccine items to be licensed, produced and vaccinated.

In this situation, some countries in which vaccinations are selected are expected to secure collective immunity sooner or later, and the joys are mixed. As for the formation of collective immunity, WHO suggested 60-70% of the population, and Anthony Pouch, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, suggested 70-90%. Let’s estimate the timing based on 70%. According to Bloomberg statistics, the U.S. has a population of 331 million and 31.8 million people have been vaccinated more than once, and the vaccination rate is 9.75%. If the current vaccination rate of 1.35 million people a day is maintained, it is possible to inoculate the entire population in 222 days and 70% of the population in 140 days. As early as the next five months, the formation of group immunity can be expected by the end of June.

The UK has a population of 67.9 million and 937 million so far, with an inoculation rate of 14.2%. It is hit at a rate of 380,000 people a day, so it will take about 100 days to inoculate 70% of the remaining population. Israel, which has the world’s highest vaccination rate, has a vaccination rate of 53.6%, with 4.85 million people, or 53.58% of the population of 8.66 million, receiving more than once. 170,000 people per day are right, so 70% of the population can be vaccinated in less than a week. As early as the British may reach the stage of mass immunity in early May and Israel this month.

The EU has a population of 446 million and 12.27 million so far, with an inoculation rate of 2.76%. At the rate of 530,000 people a day, it takes about 566 days (1 year and 7 months) for 70% to receive the vaccination. Bureaucracy in some member states slowed the pace and delayed the shipment of AstraZeneca, causing an emergency in the EU.

The global vaccine gap, as well as the economic and digital gap, can have a negative impact on the international order. This is because the possibility of widening the gap and conflict between countries increases. International efforts to solve this problem are desperate. This is because in order to overcome Corona 19, not individual countries or specific regions, but the world together must secure collective immunity.

In-Taek Chae International Reporter