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| ▲ From left, Gyeong-won Na, former member of the Future Integration Party, Se-Hoon Oh, former Mayor of Seoul, Chul-soo Ahn, Representative of the National Assembly Party, Sang-ho Woo, and Democratic Party member Park Young-sun, former Minister of Small and Medium Venture Business. | |
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As the Seoul Mayor’s by-election approaches on April 7, 2021, the outlines of each party’s candidates are revealed. There may be unexpected variables, but the mayor of Seoul has no choice but to come out of the border of five influential ruling and opposition leaders.
<오마이뉴스>Took a look at the elections coming two and a half months ahead.
[민주당] Recognition versus organization, who will win?
The Democratic mayoral contest was held as a’return match’ between Rep. Sang-ho Woo and former Minister Park Young-sun. The two had a contest against Mayor Park three years ago. On April 20, 2018, former Mayor Park won the two with an overwhelming 66.2% vote (Park Young-sun 19.59%, Woo Sang-ho 14.14%).
As the difference between the two votes was not large three years ago, a tight confrontation between the two is expected.
Former MBC reporter Park has the title of being the first woman to be the head of the judiciary committee of the National Assembly and the head of the party. In the process, his strength is that he has built his career without leaning on the influential politicians who are the’bosses’ of the party. In the ruling party, the ruling party said, “I have become a politician who knows how to take care of myself,” while leaving the position of Minister of SMEs and Startups, saying, “Thank you for continuing to follow along with’Running Youngseon’ and’Buruck Youngseon’.” . However, there are also concerns that “Isn’t it too mobbing” about Park’s delay in declaring him to run. A lawmaker with a propensity to support Park Young-seon said, “As the minister of the Ministry of Small Business and Industry, I had a strong will to finish the 3rd disaster subsidy support.”
Rep. Woo, along with Unification Minister Lee In-young and former President Lim Jong-seok, is the signboard of the 586 Democratic Party. From February 2006 to August 2010, when the Democratic Party gave up the government and fell into the ’81-seat opposition party’, he served as the party’s spokesman for commentary attacking the Lee Myung-bak administration. In 2016,’Park Geun-hye’s impeachment’ Jungkook showed the ability to draw 234 votes in favor of the impeachment as a leader of the Democratic Party with 121 seats. It has maintained an amicable relationship with the family group, including the support of former chief Lim. However, there is a view that he is “lacking star” over what is falling behind in public recognition even though he is a senior member of the 4th line like former Minister Park.
The party contest is a battle between awareness and organizational power. The results of the contest are finalized by reflecting the vote of the rights party and the results of the public opinion poll as 50-50.
On December 13, last year, Rep.Woo declared a run for office early and succeeded in attracting a significant number of them as cheerleaders by contacting Democrats in Seoul on a one-to-one basis. Some lawmakers who helped former Mayor Park Won-soon in the race three years ago also said, “I decided to help Rep. Woo this time.” An official at the Woo Sang-ho camp said, “Rep. Woo is advantageous for the rights party and former Minister Park for the public opinion poll. However, it is a good indication that there is no third candidate to erode the vote of the rights party. Winning more than 60% of the vote of the rights party is a win. “I looked out.
Former Minister Park said, “Can you play the final election as Congressman Woo?” As it was ranked’first in passport runners’ in various public opinion polls before declaring running for office, there is a calculation that it will easily solve the contest based on high recognition. In the contest for a single candidate for the opposition with former Mayor Park Won-soon 10 years ago, former Minister Park was defeated with a 6.6% gap. An official at the Park Young-sun camp asked, “I admit that U.S. has the upper hand in the party organization. But can you be confident that the rights party members will give you votes for gathering members of the National Assembly and city councils?”
The match between the two will be judged in the TV debate that will be held before and after the Lunar New Year holiday after the registration of preliminary candidates ends on the 29th.
[범야권] 14 candidates for the people’s strength, the key is unified
Last April, the ruling party won the Seoul general election. However, as mayor Park Won-soon’s sudden death led to the theory of responsibility for the election, and the so-called’Chumi-ae-Yun Seok-yeol conflict’ passed the political situation, and the popularity fell sharply.
The power of the people is aiming to retake Seoul City Hall with the slogan of finding’Park Won-soon’s lost 10 years’. It is a familiar slogan that came out in 2007 when the people’s power was to regain power from the Kim Dae-jung-Roh Moo-hyun administration.
The number of applicants for the nomination of the Mayor of the People’s Power, which ended on the 21st, reached 14.
The People’s Power Nomination Committee is planning to select four candidates from among them, but for now, former lawmaker Na Gyeong-won, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and two groups of district heads, party council chairpersons, and former lawmakers are highly likely to be on the stage.
The most influential people in the people’s strength are Na Gyeong-won and Oh Se-hoon. The key is to unite with the National Assembly Representative Ahn Chul-soo, who runs the’No. 1 approval rating’.
Just a year ago, no one predicted that three people Na Gyeong-won, Oh Se-hoon, and Ahn Cheol-soo would enter the Seoul Mayor’s Office. That’s what the 5,000 government officials of the Seoul Metropolitan Government thought of.
In 2011, Mayor Oh gave up the post as mayor after five years of his tenure, saying, “Although I resign today, I ask you to make sure that the dream of Seoul is fulfilled.” In the confrontation with former Mayor Park Won-soon 10 years ago, former lawmaker Na was defeated with a 46.2% vote. National Assembly Representative Ahn Chul-soo finished third in the mayoral election three years ago (19.6% of the votes).
A high-ranking executive in Seoul said, “I realize that I can’t know people’s affairs. It’s embarrassing to be nominated for mayor candidates who thought they would never have a chance to meet again as their boss.”
In a year-end and New Year poll conducted by media companies targeting Seoul citizens, the opposition candidates dominated in a one-on-one relationship between the opposition parties. In a situation where the people’s strength candidates are not clearly highlighted, the opposition candidate’s No. 1 candidate was converged to Ahn Cheol-soo.
On December 26-27 of last year, the Sisa Journal-Jowon C&I survey introduced both bilateral and trilateral confrontations (±3.1% points on the 95% confidence level of the sample error). In the bilateral confrontation, Ahn Cheol-soo surpassed Park Young-seon by 42.1% vs 36.8%, but the three-way confrontation that assumed the national strength candidate Na Gyeong-won was Park Young-seon (35.5%), Ahn Cheol-soo (26.0%), and Na Gyeong-won (19.4%). <동아일보>In the Research & Research survey (December 27-28 of the same year), Ahn Cheol-soo (44.6%) surpassed Park Young-seon (38.4%) in the bilateral confrontation, but the result of the three-way confrontation was Park Young-seon (31.3%)-Ahn Cheol-soo (29.4%)- It was Na Kyung-won (19.2%).
The signal from the polls was self-evident. If the two opposition parties unify their candidates, the mayoral election is easier, but if you go to a three-way structure, you cannot predict the outcome.
Ahn Cheol-soo was the one who read this trend relatively quickly. Representative Ahn ended his dream of becoming president with the declaration of running for the mayor of Seoul (December 20, last year), but this is because he took the initiative in the mayoral election. As much as meeting the citizens of Seoul twice in the last four years (the 2017 presidential election and the 2018 Seoul mayor’s election), they surpass the people’s strength candidates in recognition.
[단일화 이후] Memories of 2012’s’unbeautiful unification’
In that respect, the declaration of’return to city hall’ by former Mayor Oh Se-hoon surprised the people’s strength contest runners. This is because there were many runners who expected him to challenge himself in the 2022 presidential election in some way, with ‘5 years experience in mayoral administration’, and in this by-election. Mayor Oh announced his existence through a step-by-step approach: a conditional declaration (January 7) and an official declaration (January 17). However, the question, “Why should a citizen accept the person who has given himself mayor again?” will not leave him throughout the election.
Former Congressman Na Kyung-won is often compared with former Minister Park Young-seon, who joined the National Assembly in 2004. In December 2007, when the video’Lee Myung-bak BBK’ was uploaded on YouTube, he appeared on a radio program at the same time and held a workshop. However, the end of last year’s end of the prosecution’s investigations such as’Daughter University Sexual Privilege Suspicion’ and’Private Affairs Suspicion’ relieved the burden on former lawmakers’ political actions. On the one hand, as the opposition leader in the opposition party was prosecuted a year ago while leading the fight against the fast-track bill, it is difficult to reassure future trials.
CEO Ahn Cheol-soo’s homework is not one or two. The immediate urgent thing is to resolve the’bad luck’ with Kim Jong-in, who held the Party of the People’s Party. When President Kim encouraged him to challenge politics by creating a political party in the 2012 general election, President Ahn did not listen. The remarks that “there are about 300 people who serve as my mentors” also offended political elders including him. Kim Jong-in, Yoon Yeo-jun, and Lee Sang-don, who once had expectations on Representative Ahn, all left him.
Even if it is unified by winning the candidate for the people’s strength, it is unknown whether Ahn Chul-soo of the People’s Party will receive full support from the other party unless it is’beautiful unification’. Representative Ahn, who helped Moon Jae-in in 2012, knows best that after the unification, the lukewarm union can lead to frustration in the election.
When an opposition candidate enters the city hall, his biggest test is the establishment of a relationship with the Democratic Party-dominated Seoul City Council. 101 out of 109 city council members belong to the Democratic Party, and when Park Won-soon was in office, the conflict between the city hall and the city council did not stand out.
It cannot be ruled out the possibility that the situation of 2011, which caused extreme conflict over the draft meal ordinance for free meals, will be reenacted. With the remaining terms of the mayor and city council remaining for a year or so, it may be necessary to see the’final match’ in the 2022 local election.