South Korean diplomatic and security experts believe that the new US administration, Joe Biden, will engage in a prudent and phased North Korean nuclear deal. In addition, if North Korea promptly provokes, it is predicted that the stalemate US-North Korea relations and the situation on the Korean Peninsula will be brought to a new tension. Reporter Kim Hwan-yong reports from Seoul.
North Korean State Council Chairman Kim Jong-un said at the recent 8th Party Congress, “The key to establishing new US-North Korea relations is in the US withdrawing its hostile policy against North Korea.”
Ahead of the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration, if they wish to progress in the US-North Korea relations in the future, they are taking the lead to accept their demands.
It is also a message of pressure to prioritize the North Korean issue in the diplomatic agenda as the outline of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy has not yet been revealed.
US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln announced in a Senate approval hearing on the 19th that he would review the overall approach to the North Korean issue.
He said what options he had, whether increasing pressure on North Korea would be effective to bring it to the negotiating table, and whether other diplomatic plans were possible.
Dr. Han-beom Cho of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-run research institute under the Korean government, predicted that although the Biden administration’s policy toward North Korea is still unclear, a step-by-step approach is promising based on North Korea’s willingness to denuclearize.
[녹취: 조한범 박사] “I seem to have an idea to solve the North Korean nuclear issue step by step based on considerable expertise. But, if a small deal is possible, President Trump pursued a big deal with North Korea’s willingness to denuclearize, which is complete denuclearization, unclear. The Biden administration does a small deal only when the authenticity of complete denuclearization is premised in some way, not at all that it will do a small deal without it.”
Shin Beom-cheol, head of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security at the Korea Institute for Strategic Studies, a private research institute, suggested that he would not rush to talks with North Korea about the remarks by Blincoln’s nominee at the Senate approval hearing that he would closely consult with allies such as South Korea and Japan during the review process for North Korea policy I interpreted it as a reflection
[녹취: 신범철 센터장] “Considering the Blingen Hearings, etc., it is still a cautious stance, so if you decide on a policy position after hearing the voices of allies such as Korea and Japan, rather than resuming early dialogue, the US-Korea summit or the US -As a summit meeting is expected in Japan, it is expected that the outline of North Korea policy will be revealed in about May.”
Prof. Hyun-wook Kim of the National Foreign Affairs Office under the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that North Korea’s push for nuclear disarmament negotiations while demanding the withdrawal of its policy against North Korea through the 8th Party Congress was intended to disrupt the Biden administration’s negotiation strategy.
Prof. Kim predicted that biden’s new administration’s attempt to pressurize North Korea with a ring of sanctions against North Korea was a strategy for North Korea’s nuclear negotiations. Explaining that the promotion gave him the appearance of handing over to the new administration of Biden.
[녹취: 김현욱 교수] “That’s what North Korea is talking about. With the Iranian way of sanctions easing, we don’t negotiate, disarmament. That is why we want to stop the combined training and abolish the hostilities against North Korea. So, how much the Biden government can accommodate? This is a pretty big homework. Because I have made strengthening the alliance a top priority now, but in exchange for denuclearizing North Korea through policy toward North Korea, it gives a cessation of coalition training, which completely contradicts self-identity.”
Experts believe that biden has emphasized a diplomatic solution to the North Korean nuclear issue, and that North Korea may also have an early dialogue as negotiations with the United States are urgent due to deepening economic difficulties.
Center director Shin Beom-cheol said that Blincoln’s nominee showed considerable flexibility in resumption of humanitarian aid through a confirmation hearing, and predicted that North Korea could respond to dialogue if the US proposed an agenda early and showed willingness to talk.
Park Won-gon, a professor at the Department of International Area Studies at Handong University, also said that the Biden administration can propose an unconditional working-level dialogue even before the negotiation line with North Korea is established. I predicted that I could go to provocation with my back.
[녹취: 박원곤 교수] “There is a possibility that North Korea will exert pressure through provocations. In particular, I think there is a possibility to take an approach that pressures the United States through a method of raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula through an offensive toward South Korea, rather than the Biden administration and the ICBM test targeting the United States directly.”
As for whether or not the Biden administration tightens sanctions against North Korea, some observations suggest that unprecedented precipitation could occur if negotiations are not acceptable.
Dr. Han-beom Cho said that the existing sanctions against North Korea are causing great pain for North Korea, and that there is not enough justification for additional sanctions right now.
Dr. Cho, however, said that the United States will not neglect this as North Korea has pledged to continue to develop a means of nuclear attack on the US mainland, and even revealed the possibility of a nuclear preemptive strike through the development of tactical nuclear weapons. He also said that the possibility of choosing
This is VOA news from Seoul, Kim Hwan-yong.