“Even if more than 3 houses are sold, it is 480,000 households”… Experts say they are sorry for the loss of the transfer tax easing

Input 2021.01.11 15:30

With the Democratic Party drawing a line saying “do not review” the temporary capital gains tax relief plan, which was mentioned as one of the real estate supply measures, the controversy over the supply measures seems to fade. Real estate experts are responding, saying, “The supply effect was expected, but we are sorry.”

Lee Nak-yeon, head of the Democratic Party, met with reporters at the National Assembly on the 11th and said, “I have not considered (relieving the transfer tax) and have no intention of reviewing it in the future.”

From the beginning of the year, the political world heard news that the party government is considering a measure to ease the transfer tax as one of measures to supply housing. Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and Minister of Strategy and Finance said on the 10th that “It is also an important supply policy to let people who have 3 or 4 homes put out their products for sale,” and observations were made that the easing of the transfer tax would gain strength.

What is expected in the real estate market is the effect of the sale of multi-homed people. This is because even if a multi-homed person with three or more houses sells one house at a time, hundreds of thousands of households are on the market.

According to the ‘2019 Home Ownership Statistics’ released by the National Statistical Office at the end of last year, there are 293,000 multi-homeowners with three or more, 76,000 for four or more, and 118,000 for five or more. Even if a multi-homed house with three or more houses for sale is sold by easing the transfer tax, a total of 487,000 households will be on the market. This is equivalent to the construction of 50 new complexes such as Helio City (9510 households) in Garak-dong, Seoul, and exceeds the planned volume for the third new city.

Even if only 10,000 houses are supplied at the same time, the ripple effect on the rental market as well as housing prices is large. Heliocity, Songpa-gu, Seoul, which moved in in December 2018, is a prime example. With a large supply of goods in a short period of time, the jeonse price to nearby regions showed a shape of dropping by 100~200 million won a month.

At the beginning of the move-in in December 2018, the price of 59㎡ for Helio City exclusive was 550 million-600 million won, and 84㎡ for exclusive use was 650 million-720 million won. A certified brokerage office near Garak-dong said, “At that time, a contract was signed for an exclusive area of ​​59㎡ at the beginning of 400 million won.” Considering that the 59㎡ chartered property for this complex was signed for 1 billion won earlier this year, it is very cheap.

Of course, the easing of the transfer tax poses a problem that polarization may intensify as a result of not reversing the market capitalization of real estate investment according to the law. Last year, the national house price increase rate was 5.36%. Apartments rose 7.57%. The issue of equity with those who remained homeless after hearing the government’s saying that housing prices will stabilize soon may arise.

However, real estate experts responded that they were disappointed. This is because the effect of lowering the market price due to the expansion of supply is what the homeless people enjoy to a large extent. This is even more so in that the mass supply of housing is not available right now. In the case of the 3rd new town, compensation problems are numerous, and the Taereung site in Nowon-gu and the site of Gwacheon Government Complex in Gyeonggi-do are experiencing difficulties due to residents’ opposition.

Park Hap-soo, a senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, said, “If the transfer tax is eased at a level acceptable to the market, it will definitely help in terms of housing supply.” There will be.”

Professor Shim Gyo-eon of Konkuk University said, “As the current transfer tax rate is punitive, it is good to present a tax rate that is acceptable in the market to some extent.”

A real estate expert who asked for anonymity said, “It seems difficult to come up with a transfer tax easing that turns the supporters back in the face of an election. .

Young-jin Ham, head of Jikbang Big Data Lab, said, “It may be a political burden, but starting a discussion on easing the transfer tax is a matter of properly solving the tangled situation.” “It’s a policy priority.”