3,000 recovery during KOSPI intraday▶ Click here to enlarge
With the KOSPI surpassing the 3,000 line, attention is focused on where the’bottom’ of the KOSPI is this year.
According to the financial investment industry on the 7th, securities companies that presented the KOSPI range this year, such as Shinhan Investment, Samsung Securities, KB Securities, Korea Investment & Securities, IBK Investment & Securities, and Bukuk Securities, predicted that the bottom of the index would be around 2,400-2,700.
Based on the KOSPI 3,000, it is expected to be adjusted at a level of 10-20%.
The major risk factor they cited was the reduction of liquidity due to inflationary pressures.
Shinhan Investment, which presented 2,500 as the bottom of the index, said, “As the expected inflation in the US rose rapidly, it was close to 2% as of the end of last year.” “The economy is expected to recover due to the anticipation of the supply of a novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) vaccine. The situation could further raise expectations for inflation.”
He added, “If the expected inflation has already risen considerably and the volatility of the market interest rate increases, the stock market may also be affected. This is because the low interest rate was a factor that justifies the high stock valuation value (valuation).”
Likewise, IBK Investment & Securities, which predicted 2,500 to the bottom, said, “Inflation in the economic recovery phase is one of the factors that can weaken the strength of easing monetary policy. As the stock market rebounded based on easing monetary policy and low interest rates, Concerns that the intensity of stimulus may weaken will act as a downside risk for the stock market,” he predicted.
Korea Investment & Securities also said, “Excessive inflation can cause negative effects, such as raising the possibility of an interest rate hike,” and suggested 2,620, which is 1x the 12-month forward stock price-net asset ratio (PBR).
KB Securities also cited “inflation pressures from advanced countries such as the US” as a risk factor, looking at 2,600 as the bottom.
‘Overheating’ caused by a short-term surge is one of the burdensome factors.
IBK Investment & Securities said, “The part where the ratio of the market capitalization to nominal gross domestic product (GDP) deviates from the long-term trend represents the size of the gap between the underlying conditions (fundamental) and the stock price.” This means that controversy over the fair share price level may continue.
Shinhan Investment Corp. also explained, “The boundary factor is the possibility of overheating the market due to the rapid rise.” However, it is possible to determine whether or not the funds are being drawn to stocks through fund flow data, but it seems that there is still room.
In addition,’weakening the need for additional economic stimulus measures’ (IBK Investment & Securities),’policy material disappearance following the passage of additional economic stimulus measures’ (Shinhan Investment Corp.),’Resumption of short selling’, and’Temporary reversal of dollar strength’ (KB Securities), etc. It is counted as a risk factor.
KOSPI ‘3,028.68’▶ Click here to enlarge
Samsung Securities suggested 2,700 as the bottom of this year’s KOSPI, saying, “Restrictions on the recovery of the real economy and the lack of control over COVID-19 quarantine are risk factors despite proactive policy responses.”
Bukuk Securities presented 2,400 as the bottom, citing delays in the recovery of the real economy and conflict between the US and China as negative factors in the stock market.
Lee Won, a researcher at Bukuk Securities, explained, “In the first quarter of this year, when the US consumption is sluggish or the corona 19 vaccine is not effective in South Africa, some profits can be realized.” did.
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