Again under 1,000 people… The three major variables are hidden infection-group onset-mutant virus

The’third pandemic’ of a new coronavirus infection in Korea (Corona 19), which started in mid-November last year, has been continuing for nearly two months.

During the first three days of the New Year’s holiday, the number of new confirmed cases showed a decline, and expectations of whether it would enter into a calm phase as it is, but the first weekday after the holiday, the number rose to 1,000.

Despite the decrease in the number of tests, the number of confirmed cases increased significantly due to the outbreak of the outbreak of the Eastern Detention Center in Seoul and the nursing hospitals in Incheon and Gwangju.

The quarantine authorities are evaluating that this third pandemic is at the level of being suppressed and managed without a rapid spread based on key indicators such as the daily average number of confirmed local outbreaks, the number of outbreaks, and the infection reproduction index.

However, in view of the past, if various risk factors are not blocked, the number of new confirmed patients will increase at any time, and related indicators may deteriorate.

The quarantine authorities are planning to cut off risk factors and reduce the spread through special quarantine measures and special quarantine measures, especially the ban on meetings of five or more people, with the ‘social distancing’ re-extended until the 17th (Seoul Metropolitan Area 2.5 stage, Non-metropolitan area 2 stage).

◇ Today, it seems to be significantly less than 1,000 people… Approximately 915 confirmed cases of regional outbreaks on average per day

According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 5th, the number of new confirmed cases at 0 o’clock the previous day was counted as 1,20.

In the previous two days (2 to 3 days), they represented 820 and 657, respectively, and fell to three digits, but returned to 1,000. It has been three days since the last 1st (1,28 people).

The statistics on the previous day reflect the situation on the last day of the holiday season, and as the number of tests has decreased significantly, fewer confirmed cases have to come out, but as the number of confirmed cases in correctional facilities and nursing hospitals flooded, it exceeded the 1,000 mark.

The number of new confirmed cases to be announced as of 0:00 on the day is expected to fall below 1,000.

In fact, 592 new confirmed cases were counted midway between the quarantine authorities and local governments, such as Seoul, from 0:00 to 9:00 on the previous day. There are 319 fewer than the previous day (911).

If there are no large-scale cases of infection by 12 pm, when the count is closed, it may be limited to 600 to 700 people.

Even if the number of new confirmed cases declines sharply on this day, it is still difficult to judge that the spreading trend has stopped. Given the trend of weekly patient outbreaks so far, the number of new confirmed cases may increase again from mid-week.

Looking at the situation for the last week, the number of new confirmed cases per day was 1,45 → 1,50 → 967 → 1,28 → 820 → 657 → 1,20, showing an average of 941 per day. Of these, the number of confirmed local outbreaks reaches an average of about 915 per day, accounting for most.

In the case of major regional infections, the cumulative number of confirmed cases related to the eastern detention center in Seoul increased to 1,90. This is a result of reflecting up to the 5th full investigation, and it is expected that the number of confirmed cases will increase after the 6th investigation is completed.

In addition, 49 people, including residents and workers, were confirmed at a nursing hospital in Gyeyang-gu, Incheon, and a total of 65 people were infected in the case of Hyojeong Nursing Hospital in Gwangsan-gu, Gwangju.

In addition, new church infections, including the second church in Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do (17 people cumulatively) and church-related (15 people) in Icheon-si, Gyeonggi-do, were followed.

◇ The three major variables in quarantine are’hidden infection’, a large-scale outbreak, and a mutant virus from the UK

In this situation, the quarantine authorities have identified three major variables in the future quarantine response:’hidden infection’ in the community, large-scale outbreaks centered on vulnerable facilities, and mutant viruses originating in the UK.

In a briefing the day before, Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Bangdae Headquarters, discussed cases of unknown infection path in the 27% range and the positive rate in the 2% range, and diagnosed that “the risk of hidden infection in the community continues”.

“The outbreak of infection-vulnerable facilities such as nursing homes, nursing homes, and detention centers continues, and in recent years, the outbreak of new groups through religious facilities is increasing, so the risk of regional spread due to large-scale group outbreaks is increasing.” said.

In addition, he added, “It is also necessary to be wary of the risk of increased transmission power due to the influx of a mutant virus that is prevalent in the UK and South Africa (South Africa).”

In the case of a mutant virus originating from the UK, it is known that its transmission power is 1.7 times stronger, and it is estimated that the mutant virus originating from South Africa will also have a significant spread. Currently, 9 of the domestic corona19 confirmed cases are infected with the mutant virus from the UK, and one is infected with the mutant virus from South Africa.

The government has established countermeasures according to each risk factor.

In order to prevent the spread of hidden infections or sporadic local infections to group outbreaks at vulnerable facilities, the current distance-taking steps and special quarantine measures were extended for two weeks until the 17th, while banning private gatherings of five or more people. The intention is to prevent the spread of infection by blocking contact between people as much as possible.

In addition, the operating period of the temporary screening test center in the metropolitan area was extended by the same period to find hidden infected people.

For facilities that are vulnerable to infection, such as nursing hospitals, the preemptive inspection period was shortened and on-site inspection was strengthened.

In addition, in order to prevent the influx of mutant viruses, it was mandatory to submit a PCR (gene amplification test) negative confirmation letter for all foreigners entering the airport from the 8th at the airport and the 15th at the port.

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