上底下高 ···”Concerns about the expansion and fixation of the imbalance between advanced and emerging countries and between classes and industries
[서울파이낸스 김희정 기자] The Bank of Korea predicted that in 2021, the global economy will depend on a new coronavirus infectious disease (Corona 19) vaccine, US President-elect Joe Biden’s economic policy’Bidenomics’, and China’s transformation of growth strategies.
On the 3rd, the BOK selected and announced ‘7 issues that will influence the direction of the global economy in 2021’, including them. The BOK predicted that “the global economy next year will have some negative factors such as deepening economic recovery imbalances, but the growth will increase in the second half of the year due to the commercialization of the Corona 19 vaccine and the expansion of fiscal spending by the new US government.”
He added, “There is a possibility that the global economy will unfold in an unexpected direction, as various issues such as the delay in the end of Corona 19 and the conflict between the US and China have an impact.”
As for the Corona 19 vaccine, he diagnosed, “It is expected that the population immunity will be close to the population immunity in the second half of next year, mainly in developed countries, but the feeling of rejection of vaccination and the possibility of delaying the release of some vaccines can prevent the early end of Corona 19.”
The BOK also predicted that “in the US, with the launch of the Biden government, large-scale fiscal expenditures and infrastructure investment could have a positive impact on the global economy.” He added, “However, it is possible to limit this impact by maintaining the protection trade stance that prioritizes the purchase of domestic products and the expansion of employment of local residents, whether the fiscal legislation is passed, and concerns about intensifying conflict between the United States and China.”
With China’s (international and domestic)’bicycle’ growth strategy focused on the domestic market, he predicted that “China’s participation in the global supply chain may be reduced in the future, but its potential as an international consumption market will increase.”
The BOK said, “The Biden administration will somewhat ease the uncertainty of US foreign policy, but there is a high possibility that the US-China conflict will become permanent.” I expected.
In addition, he said, “While the expansion of the imbalance between developed and emerging countries is limiting the recovery of the global economy, the deepening of the imbalance between classes and industries within the country may cause the Corona 19 shock to stick.”
Lastly, the BOK said, “The international community’s response to climate change will be further strengthened.” “As each government expands investment in eco-friendly technologies, competition for preoccupying new industries and markets will intensify and the development of eco-friendly technologies will be promoted.” I predicted.
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