Ju-san-yeon, supply and demand imbalance The greatest impact on house prices…
[서울파이낸스 박성준 기자] It is predicted that the prices of houses and rent in Seoul will rise next year. Contrary to the expectations of the government, which is making housing supply a top priority next year, it is analyzed that the supply shortage will not improve.
The Housing Industry Research Institute predicted that the sale price of apartments in Seoul will rise by 2.1% next year through a report on the 2021 housing market forecast on the 29th. It is expected that the price of apartments in the metropolitan area and nationwide will increase by 1.8%. Joo San-yeon analyzed that the’supply and demand imbalance’, where the balance between supply and demand is not balanced, has the greatest impact on the rise of apartment prices in Seoul.
Ju San-yeon estimates the supply and demand index of apartments based on the supply of apartments in a specific year for the past 10 years, and the increase in demand is’net increment of the active population in the housing market minus the number of deaths from the 30-year-old entry population in a specific year’. The factors were analyzed.
As a result, the factors influencing the nationwide apartment price were △ supply and demand index (correlation coefficient -0.38) △ economic growth rate (0.28) △ home mortgage loan increase rate (0.25) △ interest rate change (-0.13). It was analyzed that the impact of interest rate changes was insignificant. On the other hand, Seoul analyzed that the influence of supply and demand factors was much greater, such as △supply and demand index (-0.58) △economic growth rate (0.28) △increase rate (0.13) △interest rate change (-0.01).
“The lower the ratio of multi-homeowners, the greater the increase in apartment prices,” said Joo San-yeon. “The suppression of multi-home ownership shows a completely different result from the assertions of speculative suppressors who are absolute in stabilizing home prices.” did.
In the case of jeonse, the shortage of supply of jeonse, which does not meet the increase in end-users, and market turmoil under the 3rd Lease Act will lead to an increase in apartment jeonse prices in Seoul, the metropolitan area, and nationwide next year by 5.0%, 3.7%, and 3.3%, respectively.
The country was counted in the following order: △economic growth rate (0.36) △ interest rate change (-0.33) △ supply and demand index (-0.31) △ growth rate for headings (0.20). Unlike buying and selling, interest rate changes have a relatively large impact, and the correlation coefficient of the multi-home ownership ratio is found to be very large, also 0.40. This is a result of reflecting a phenomenon in which the number of multi-homes increases during the period of stabilizing housing prices, and the gap between sales and jeonse prices narrows, and the real rent level rises further, San-yeon Ju explained.
San-yeon Joo said, “Amidst the low possibility of improvement in the accumulated supply shortage situation, the government’s regulatory strengthening stance continues”. “Expectation for economic recovery and excess demand due to the increase in households entering the housing market, preference for new homes, It is expected that the trading price and the rent for cheonsei will continue to rise due to low interest rates, increased liquidity, and uncertainty in the cheonsei market.”
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