President Moon trapped in’triple bad news’

President Moon Jae-in apologized on the 25th for returning to the office of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol. The photo shows President Moon who attended the 5th factor meeting on the 22nd. [뉴시스]

The Blue House fell in deep shock. Chung Man-ho’s mobile phone was turned off throughout the morning of the 25th. Key staff were also silent. It is proof that no sharp countermeasures were found for the situation that the court suspended the’two months of honesty’ discipline against Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol the day before. The Blue House official response came out only at 2:20 pm.

President Moon said through the Blue House spokesman Kang Min-seok, “I respect the court’s decision,” and “as a personnel authority, I apologize for causing inconvenience and confusion to the people.” This is a level higher than what he said, “I am very sorry to the people,” when he reapproved the punishment bill of President Yoon on the 16th.

In particular, the expression’personnel rights holder’ is drawing attention. This is because it implies that President Moon himself admitted that he had exercised the wrong personnel rights to the extent that the court put a brake. An official at the Blue House also said, “The expression of human resources rights includes both the meanings of’im’ and’myeon’. Please accept the President as saying that he intends to end the conflict and settle the situation.”

For this reason, it is predicted that the succession of Justice Minister Chu Mi-ae, who has already announced his intention to resign, will be faster. It is said that there is a possibility of a one-point reshuffle targeting only Minister Chu, prior to the over-medium restructuring expected in January to February next year. In this case, the’Chumi-ae and Yoon Seok-yeol conflict’, which has been drawn for a year, is expected to end with Yoon’s de facto victory.

The problem is that the’Yoon Seok-yeol Incident’ is not the end. Right now, the third pandemic of Corona 19 is facing a crisis that is out of control. As the number of confirmed cases increases, the shortage of hospital beds and medical staff is becoming a reality. In addition, while countries around the world are vaccinating one after another, it is known that Korea will be vaccinated only in March of next year, and criticized that “they were settled with the results of K-quarantine and faced a’three crisis’ such as medical staff, beds, and vaccines.” It is also growing.

The likelihood that President Moon’s 5th year in office will face difficulties has also increased. This is because Byun Chang-heum of the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport took out a card to solve the hotly controversial real estate problem this year, but after the National Assembly personnel hearing, not only the power of the people but also the Justice Party opposed the appointment. This is the reason for the analysis that “President Moon was surrounded by’triple bad news’ such as Yoon Seok-yeol, Corona, and Byeon Chang-heum.” Even in Yeouido’s government, “In the end, President Moon has no choice but to deal with the situation,” and “depending on how you deal with it, the lame duck (a power leak at the end of the rule) may accelerate or be delayed.” .

Research expert Bae Jong-chan, head of Insight K Research Institute, said, “If the approval rating of President Moon does not keep 35%, there is ample room to be a sure sign of Lame Duck in a situation where there are many explosive issues such as Yoon Seok-yeol and vaccines.” Director Bae predicted, “In particular, if the public sentiment in the metropolitan area turns a lot, it could have a direct impact on the next year’s presidential election as well as the next year’s mayoral by-election.”

‘Yoon Seok-yeol’ failed, President Moon’s’Lame Duck Blocking’ bank collapses

President Moon Jae-in apologized on the 25th and issued a message to the prosecution. “I look forward to giving the prosecution an opportunity to reflect on the fair and moderate exercise of the prosecution’s right, keeping in mind the judgment of the court,” he said. “The Ministry of Justice and the prosecutors will have to carry out follow-up measures such as reform of the prosecution and the reform of the investigative power without fail through stable cooperation,” he said.

However, in the political world, the prevailing evaluation is that the power of prosecution reform has already been lost. Initially, the Blue House officials insisted that the two-month honesty was “the hand of God”. This is because the court expected that the court would not grant Yun’s hand for disciplinary punishment other than dismissal or dismissal. However, the court poured cold water on these expectations. The fact that Professor Kyung-Shim Chung, the wife of former Justice Minister Cho Kook, was convicted was a disturbing result for the Blue House. The passport has been used as the basis for the’printing of Yoon Seok-yeol’, saying that the investigation against Cho was “excessive target investigation”, but the court concluded that the investigation was justified at the time. Even within the Blue House, there is a complaining that “there is no plan B anymore” in the court’s’two hits’.

Professor Jang Seung-jin of Kookmin University said, “Even though there was time to politically solve the problem, President Moon’s style of reluctance to get’blood on his hands’ led him to come sluggishly.” There is a possibility to face churn.” In this regard, an official from the Blue House said, “The situation has reached this point, but no one is responsible for it.” He pointed out, “So far, the key staffs have only been’sounding good’ in front of the president and have blocked all direct statements.” “People who talked so much when it was good are now saying’I don’t know’ and pushing only the president.”

The voices of criticism against President Roh Young-min’s secretary are also growing. Another person said, “We had to change in advance from Mr. Roh, whose leadership collapsed due to the real estate controversy.” Professor Ahn Byung-jin of Kyung Hee University pointed out that “the Blue House staff, who were soaked in the culture of the movement, blocked their ears from criticism and made the president make a wrong decision.”

From the perspective of the Democratic Party, it is unlikely that it will be easy to secure the power of the’Prosecution Reform Season 2′. The Democratic Party is planning to initiate a revision of the law that aims to’complete separation of the right to investigate and prosecute’ early next year. Even at the party level, Rep. Kim Doo-gwan said on this day that he will prepare a proposal for impeachment of President Yoon, professing’no interruption in prosecution reform’ and speedy war, but this situation has made it difficult to expect support from public opinion.

The corona crisis is also a fire. The number of corona 19 confirmed patients peaked at 1241 on the 24th. In a situation where there is a disruption in securing vaccines, discussions are underway until the transition to the third stage of social distancing. This is a deep concern in that it is actually an economic shutdown and self-confidence of the government’s quarantine failure. An official at the Blue House said, “There was an internal discussion that President Moon should make an apology or talk in person if the third stage is decided.” “Separately, the president is considering a plan to directly clarify the controversy over the introduction of vaccines through broadcast talks.” said.

Candidate Chang-Hum Byun is another bad news. Even though the Justice Party has opposed the appointment, it is expected that the opposition party will enforce the appointment even if the opposition party does not respond to the adoption of the hearing report due to President Moon’s style. However, when the presidential approval rate was high, the side effects were small even if a unilateral appointment was made, but at this point, there is a great concern that such a one-way street will only fix the image of the regime’s’discontinuity’.

Experts agree that whether or not the lame duck phenomenon will become apparent will ultimately depend on the direction of the approval rating. According to the results of the 2020 monthly and yearly integrated public opinion poll released by Gallup Korea on the day, the evaluation of the performance of President Moon’s state administration was overwhelmingly high with 67% positive and 25% negative in May, just after the general election. However, from July to November, they competed within 3% points (see the Election Polls Deliberation Committee website for details). July, when the positive and negative evaluations fell within the margin of error, coincides with the beginning of the so-called’Chu-Yun conflict’ when Justice Minister Chu Mi-ae invoked the authority of investigation in the’Channel A case’.

This month, when the conflict over the punishment of President Yoon reached its peak, President Moon collapsed with 39% positive and 53% negative, which was called the’concrete approval rating’ at 40%. There are also observations that the departure of the middle class will accelerate in the future. Professor Shinyul of Myongji University said, “In the latter half of the rule, when the approval rate is inevitably lowered from the perspective of passports, we chose a strategy to mobilize the support group through reform of the prosecution. There is also a possibility.”

Reporters Taehwa Kang and Hyunseok Oh [email protected]