Input 2021.02.15 15:11
As Coupang officially announced its listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), interest in corporate value and future stock price outlook after listing is increasing. In the financial investment industry, there is also a forecast that Coupang’s market cap this year will exceed 60 trillion won (about $54.3 billion). This is 10 trillion won more than the 30-50 trillion won rating by major foreign media such as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Financial Times (FT), and Bloomberg News.
An analysis has also been raised that Coupang will advance to the same business model as Amazon, the world’s largest retailer. There is also a view that Coupang will continue to expand its business area by providing an online video service (OTT) like Amazon’s Prime Video.
However, domestic securities industry officials analyzed that Coupang will not be able to make operating profits within the next two to three years. Coupang recorded an operating deficit of $5273 million (about 580 billion won) last year.
15th SK Securities (001510)The Research Center estimated the market cap of Coupang to be 60.7 trillion won.
SK Securities said, “Assuming that 9% of the growth rate of the Korean e-commerce market this year is assumed to be Coupang’s annual growth rate this year, the ratio of sales to stock price (PSR) based on the estimated sales of already listed unicorn companies. If you put it off, Coupang is a company with a value of KRW 60 trillion and 700 billion.”
SK Securities’ analysis of Coupang’s corporate value of KRW 60.7 trillion was calculated by applying the annual sales estimate of KRW 14 trillion and the average PSR of global distribution companies of 4.2.
Although the initial price of the stock will be determined according to the public offering price and the number of listed stocks, experts analyzed that the future stock price will be formed by reflecting this corporate value. Seung-woo Yoo, a researcher at SK Securities, said, “The market cap of Coupang, which has smaller sales than E-Mart and Lotte Shopping, will far exceed them.”
Kim Jin-woo, a researcher at KTB Investment & Securities said, “Because the US IPO market continues to boom, Coupang’s stock price could be good in the short term.”
The financial investment industry predicts that Coupang will expand its business area with the same business model as Amazon in the future. Amazon is strengthening its content service by securing 150 million subscribers around the world with Amazon Prime Video, an OTT, and it is said that Coupang will also expand such business by raising funds through listing. In fact, Coupang also expressed its intention to produce its own content to be released on Coupang Play, its OTT.
Researcher Jinwoo Kim said, “In the case of Amazon, not only delivery, but also as a cloud (virtual storage space) service company,” he said. Hyunyong Kim Hyundai Motor Securities (001500)The researcher also predicted that “Coupang will try to follow the Amazon business model,” and “we will run Coupang Play on a monthly subscription basis like Amazon Prime Video.”
However, there are voices of concern about the profitability of Coupang, which pursues aggressive business strategies through such large-scale public offerings. After Coupang was founded, it recorded a cumulative deficit of $4.118 billion (about 4.5 trillion won) (as of the end of last year).
Park Jong-dae, a researcher at Hana Financial Investment, analyzed that “the cumulative deficit exceeded 4 trillion won due to continued operating losses, and capital expansion is urgently due to complete capital erosion last year.”
Researcher Kim Hyun-yong said, “It is not easy for Coupang to see significant profits within 1-2 years.” It looks like you’ll be breathing,” he explained.