[환율마감] Won-dollar fell only 5 trading days, KOSPI all-time high + negotiated stock

Foreigners bought the KOSPI for the second day, and the yuan fell on the weaker global dollar
Rather than directional betting, the fluctuations centered on real demands.. It is likely to fluctuate from 1100 won to 2-3 won by the end of the year.

The won-dollar exchange rate fell after five trading days. This is because, as the KOSPI surged, it reached the 2800 mark for the first time in history, and foreigners continued to buy net in the KOSPI market for the second day. Recently, as heavy industries have received orders for ships one after another, the amount of Nego (dollar selling) has also come out.

The global dollar weakened, and the yuan’s decline also had an impact. Behind the scenes is the spread of risk preference in the news of a trade negotiation agreement between Europe and the UK.

Foreign exchange market participants evaluated that the stock market was very good. It was reported that the accumulated shipbuilding orders came out, and the short stocks held below 1,100 won overlapped. In light of the fact that the trading volume is small at the end of the year, it is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, focusing on real demand rather than directional betting. The stock market is showing strong performance and the possibility of agreement between the EU and the UK over the weekend is high, so the won and the dollar will try to break down by 1100 won. However, a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) is spreading, and a variant virus is also emerging, and it is expected to support the bottom line. By the end of the year, it was expected to move up and down 2-3 won around 1100 won.

On the 24th, the won-dollar exchange rate in the Seoul foreign exchange market closed at 1103.0 won, down 4.9 won (0.44%) from the previous day. The won/dollar starting at 1106.0 won went between 1107.5 won and 1101.6 won during the intraday. The intraday fluctuation was 5.9 won.

The offshore exchange rate fell in three days. In the differential settlement futures exchange (NDF) market, one-month won-dollar contracts were priced at 1105.3/1105.7 won, down 1.05 won from the closing price of the spot exchange.

“The stock market was very good,” said a foreign exchange dealer at a banknote. It seems that the trading volume was not very large, but the weakening movement of the global dollar around 10 am also affected. In the downside bet, the Nego volume and the short volume held below 1100 won overlapped and fell.”

He also said, “Next week is the end of the year. Even in terms of transaction volume, it is likely to fluctuate more mainly on real demand rather than direction. Looking at the stock market rally, we expect the won and the dollar to move up and down around 1,100 won by 2-3 won.”

Seungji Jeon, a researcher at Samsung Futures, said, “The stock price has also hit an all-time high, and foreigners have also bought nearly 150 billion won from the KOSPI market to the tent. The renminbi is also quite missing. As ship orders have been concentrated in recent days, it seems that there has been a burden of negotiating.”

He continued, “I think the possibility of an agreement between the EU and the UK on weekends is high. It seems that it will act favorably on the won-dollar decline. If it comes out to the amount of Nego, it is likely to try downward by 1100 won. On the other hand, concerns about the spread of corona and strains will overlap and support the bottom line. The attempt was made to lower the 1100 won, but the decline would be limited.”

As of 3:40 p.m., the dollar and yen rose by 0.05 yen (0.05%) to 103.58 yen, the euro and dollar rose by 0.0024 dollars (0.20%) to 1.2204 dollars, and the offshore dollar and yuan (CNH) by 0.0138 yuan (0.21%). It is recording a drop of 6.5172 yuan.

In the stock market, the KOSPI surged 47.04 points (1.70%) to 2806.86, breaking an all-time high in three days. Foreigners bought 117 billion won worth of won, and continued to purchase net for two consecutive days.